| Presstalis : approbation des comptes refusée | Laurent Saint-Martin (LREM) | Netflix adapte Jerry Seinfeld Posted: 27 Jun 2019 09:50 PM PDT Le quotidien de l'influence et des pouvoirs | -20% | sur votre abonnement jusqu'au 12/07/2019 | | | | | | | |
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| Votre sommaire de la semaine Posted: 27 Jun 2019 09:35 PM PDT | Paris espère des renforts de commandos alliés en Afrique, alors que les forces spéciales françaises sont soumises à des cadences infernales. | | |   |
| محمد بن سلمان يجتمع مع ترمب وبوتين وماي Posted: 27 Jun 2019 09:27 PM PDT |
| 'A star was born tonight;' debate aftermath; ratings results; Twitter trends; E. Jean Carroll interview; moment of silence for Capital Gazette victims Posted: 27 Jun 2019 09:17 PM PDT Former NBC exec Mark Lukasiewicz recapped Thursday's debate in 14 words: "Eric Swalwell asked Joe Biden to pass the torch. Kamala Harris just took it" DEBATE POST-GAME EDITION
And the winner is...
Former NBC exec and debate producer Mark Lukasiewicz summed up Thursday night's debate in 14 words: "Eric Swalwell asked Joe Biden to pass the torch. Kamala Harris just took it." | | Harris is the name on everyone's lips after part two of the season's inaugural Democratic debate. "Harris had a moment -- that was two hours long," Van Jones said on CNN after the debate. "A star was born tonight."
--> CNN's Chris Cillizza said Harris gave "the strongest performance not just of Thursday night's debate but of either nights' debate. She was calm, poised, knowledgeable and, yes, presidential." Read on...
--> The New Yorker's Katy Waldman called her the best storyteller on the stage: "We'll remember the busing moment, but Kamala Harris dominated the debate from the start. She is fervent but deploys her anger precisely, like a flashlight..."
--> WaPo's Paul Farhi tweeted: "Guessing that Trump right now is ginning up a nickname for Kamala Harris."
--> Focus grouper Frank Luntz tweeted: "In just about every way imaginable, Kamala Harris dominated. She had the guts to take on and embarrass Joe Biden – not only did she have the best language, she was the most memorable..."
--> What I'm wondering: What will Harris do to capitalize on this moment?
Tweet of the day
Former Obama aide Dan Pfeiffer quipped on Twitter: "Harris's campaign manager is on the phone right now with the DNC proposing more debates..."
How many watched?
The ratings for night one were higher than most TV execs expected. I have to admit -- my guess was WAY too low. I said 8 million. I can't remember the last time I've been so wrong. (Maybe my wife Jamie can 😉)
The actual total: 15.3 million across NBC, MSNBC and Telemundo. The debate came very close to beating the all-time Dem debate record, which was set in October 2015, when 15.5 million tuned in to CNN for the first primary season debate between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.
I think it's safe to predict that night two will surpass 15.5 million... But we'll know for sure on Friday afternoon...
Why the ratings matter
The Nielsen #'s reflect enormous interest in the presidential race -- with millions of people tuning in to size up the candidates who want to beat President Trump next year. Here's my full story.
--> Reminder: These #'s don't even include streaming viewership on YouTube, Twitter and other sites. (It's impossible to add the web viewership to the TV total, because it's apples and oranges.)
Who had time
The disparities in speaking times were even more glaring on night two than night one: Biden had the most talk time, 13 minutes and 18 seconds, followed by Harris with 12 minutes and 9 seconds. Andrew Yang? Only 2 minutes, 56 seconds...
Twitter's findings...
Twitter said Biden was the most-tweeted-about candidate on Thursday night, followed by Harris, Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg. Here are the three most-tweeted moments: | |
About those glitches...
Thursday was much smoother than Wednesday, but the glitches on night one were still embarrassing for NBC. A microphone glitch "delayed the debate by about four minutes" and "apparently was caused by wireless microphones" inside the auditorium, WaPo's Paul Farhi wrote. He said the "exact cause still isn't clear." I can only imagine what other networks will be doing to ensure that something like this doesn't happen again later in the debate season...
Another musician tells Trump not to use their music
Trump mocked NBC's Wednesday night technical difficulties by sharing a fan-made video set to Ozzy Osbourne's song "Crazy Train." Ozzy's wife Sharon Osbourne shot back on Thursday night: "Based on this morning's unauthorized use of @OzzyOsbourne's 'Crazy Train,' we are sending notice to the Trump campaign they are forbidden from using Ozzy's music in political ads," she wrote...
On to the next debates...
CNN will host the next two-night Dem debate on July 30 and 31 at the Fox Theater in Detroit...
IN OTHER NEWS...
After the debate, MSNBC's David Gura noted: "Not addressed tonight, notably: E. Jean Carroll's allegation against President Trump."
E. Jean Carroll on this week's "Reliable Sources" podcast | | Carroll's allegation about Trump attacking her in a Bergdorf Goodman dressing room in the mid 1990's was first published by NYMag last Friday. So I wanted to speak with her about all of it -- the alleged sexual assault, the reactions, the news coverage, and the broader point of her new book. Tune in to the podcast via TuneIn, Apple, Stitcher, Spotify, or your preferred app. There were several new stories to ask her about...
Carroll's friends go public
The two friends who were told about Trump allegedly assaulting Carroll at the time, in the mid 1990s, are no longer anonymous. Lisa Birnbach and Carol Martin spoke to The New York Times for Thursday's episode of "The Daily" and an in-depth story by Jessica Bennett, Megan Twohey and Alexandra Alter.
When I spoke with her later in the day, Carroll said "I'm deeply grateful that they came forward and put their names on record, which is a very big deal when you think of the onslaught." She also went out of her way to praise the Times for its reporting -- which stood out to me since Dean Baquet admitted earlier this week that the paper was "overly cautious" when her account first came out in NYMag...
About that "SVU" episode
A 2012 episode of "Law & Order: SVU" includes a storyline that sounds quite similar to the outline of Carroll's allegation. The "SVU" mention is brief, while Carroll's account is quite detailed, and her two friends say they heard about it from her at the time. Still, Donald Trump Jr. and others who've been trying to discredit Carroll have promoted this "SVU" clip and used it to demean her.
She says it is just a "huge" and strange "coincidence." And CNN's Sara Murray hears the same from NBC world: "A person with knowledge of how the 'Law & Order: SVU' episode came together said there's 'no correlation -- none whatsoever' between the 2012 episode and Carroll's allegations..."
Carroll's overall message
"This is not a Trump book," she told me at the end of the interview. That's what she wants people to know. The book is titled "What Do We Need Men For? A Modest Proposal" -- it comes out next Tuesday -- and it recounts her trip across the USA asking women, basically, "what do we need men for?" Carroll says "the culture has changed" since the '90s, but "men have not changed..."
FOR THE RECORD, PART ONE
-- Keith J. Kelly's latest: Condé Nast "quietly expanded its board to eight members months ago and added two prominent executives to the board as independent directors: former Forbes Chief Executive Mike Perlis and former Gucci CEO Domenico De Sole." Why it matters: "The directors are the first truly independent ones ever added to the board, which in the past was dominated by family members of the billionaire Newhouse family..." (NYPost)
-- Bustle Digital Group's Bryan Goldberg has closed a deal "to buy Nylon, the 20-year-old fashion, beauty, music and pop-culture media brand — the company's seventh acquisition to date," Todd Spangler reports... (Variety)
One year since the Capital Gazette attack
One year ago Friday, a gunman stormed the Capital Gazette newspaper's office in Annapolis, Maryland, and killed five employees. Two others escaped with injuries. It was the single deadliest day for journalists in the United States since 9/11. And it continues to have ripple effects in Annapolis and beyond. Earlier this week a group of civic leaders gathered in DC to announce plans for a Fallen Journalists Memorial. A press freedom memorial is also in the works in Annapolis. And there was a Safe Cities Summit there on Thursday, hosted by the mayor, as Lauren Lumpkin reports here.
The paper continues to provide complete coverage of the shooting's aftermath. Check out the special coverage of the anniversary here...
Moment of silence on Friday afternoon
Friday has been designated Freedom of the Press Day in the state of Maryland. Staffers from the Capital Gazette and other Tribune Publishing papers will dedicate a memorial garden in Annapolis on Friday morning. Details here.
And at 2:33 p.m. ET, the time of the shooting, Tribune Publishing staffers all across the country will hold a moment of silence.
There will also be a "concert and community gathering" at Maryland Hall in Annapolis on Friday evening...
AP to build Local News Sharing Network, starting in New York state
Katie Pellico emails: "With support from the Google News Initiative, AP will build an online tool that enables members to share their coverage plans" and content, "to more efficiently cover local news," the AP announced Thursday. AP's deputy managing editor for US news Noreen Gillespie said the aim is to "find ways to work together to fill... coverage gaps," in an interview with NiemanLab's Christine Scmidt. Read on...
>> Two dozen local newsrooms across New York state are involved in the pilot project, including the Adirondack Daily Enterprise and Fordham University's WFUV radio station. Thursday's release explains, "New York was selected because of its rich history of journalism, AP memberships, broad geography and news volume." Read the full release here...
FOR THE RECORD, PART TWO
-- This will be useful for journos: WaPo's Arc Publishing is launching "Broadcast, a first-of-its-kind mobile app that allows journalists to stream high-quality live video to multiple sites and social platforms simultaneously..." (WaPo)
-- From Poynter VP Kelly McBride: "Good editors must be thoughtful when showing readers hard truths, like photos of dead bodies..." (Poynter)
Sinclair's trouble
Did Sinclair Broadcast Group mislead the FCC during its attempt to buy Tribune Media? A probe is underway: "In a June 25 letter to Sinclair viewed by the WSJ, the FCC said it is investigating whether the nation's biggest owner of local television stations 'engaged in misrepresentation and/or lack of candor' with the agency when it was seeking approval for the $3.9 billion deal," Joe Flint and Lillian Rizzo scooped on Wednesday night.
>> On Thursday, a Sinclair spokesman responded by saying, "This is not a new investigation. This is part of an ongoing discussion initiated by Sinclair to work with the FCC to resolve certain allegations raised by the HDO" (Hearing Designation Order).
>> "At our station, we are required to run conservative content," a Sinclair source commented to me on Thursday, asserting that it's mandated to keep Trumpworld happy. "And yet his own FCC administration with conservative leaders are against us..."
| | Facebook's new report
"Facebook released a research report Thursday summarizing feedback on its proposed independent body to handle community appeals," CNBC's Lauren Feiner wrote.
Slate's Kate Klonick and Evelyn Doueck described Thursday's report as "Facebook's Federalist papers," summarizing, "In the end, the consensus reflected in the report is pretty much exactly what you'd expect from an attempt to find global common ground—which is to say, not much at all."
You can read the PDF for yourself here...
Congrats to this year's Loeb Award winners
Some of the nation's best business and financial journalists gathered in NYC Thursday evening for the presentation of the Gerald Loeb Awards... I had the honor of presenting the investigative award to the team behind the NYT's series on Facebook and disinformation.
Speaking of The Times: James B. Stewart, Rachel Abrams and Ellen Gabler were honored for their reporting about "how Les Moonves tries to silence an accuser." The WSJ's Michael Miller received the Lawrence Minard Editor Award. And The FT's Martin Wolf was the lifetime achievement award winner. The full list will be up on the website here...
FOR THE RECORD, PART THREE
By Laney Pope:
-- India is considering creating "its own WhatsApp," specifically for government officials to communicate without "reliance on foreign entities..." (TechCrunch)
-- Michael Caruso is stepping down as EIC of Smithsonian magazine at the end of the month... (Smithsonian)
-- Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is looking to hire his fourth press secretary in six months. Among other reasons, "internal disputes over how to handle the media... has complicated the job of government press liaison..." (Bloomberg)
Nielsen releases mid-year music report
| | Katie Pellico writes: Nielsen's mid-year music report came out Thursday, sizing up who's streaming and selling the most. You can request to download the report here, but Bloomberg's Lucas Shaw tweeted out these helpful takeaways:
-- "Drake is the second-most listened to artist of 2019 — and the most streamed — without releasing a new album." Post Malone joins Drake in the top 10 "even though their albums were released in the first half of last year."
-- "Scandal is good for album sales," Shaw tweeted. R. Kelly, Michael Jackson and Ja Rule streams all spiked amid their respective controversies.
-- "YouTube now influences the rankings," along with TikTok...
-- Movies too... "Queen has also sold the most *physical* albums of any act this year (by a lot). But the best-selling album of the year so far (in terms of actual sales) is.... A Star is Born."
FOR THE RECORD, PART FOUR
-- Related news from The Verge's Natt Garun: "Apple SVP Eddy Cue says Apple Music has surpassed 60 million subscribers, according an interview with French media site Numerama. This milestone adds 10 million more subscribers to the last known figure" in April... (The Verge)
-- Bleacher Report is broadening its football coverage with three new NFL-focused shows coming this summer, after, WSJ's Lee Harris relays, executives "realized that NFL content was among the most viewed by users on its app..." (WSJ)
| | FOR THE RECORD, PART FIVE
-- "Bravolebrity"-maker Andy Cohen is celebrating 10 years of "Watch What Happens Live." He reflects on diversity in late-night in an interview with THR's Jackie Strause, saying, "It's time for a network to put a woman on five nights a week..." (THR)
-- Here's another look back on 10 years at Andy's Clubhouse, this time with Vulture's Brian Moylan... (Vulture)
CBS saves "One Day at a Time"
The reboot of "One Day at a Time," which was cancelled by Netflix in March, will "continue on with a new 13-episode fourth season premiering in 2020," thanks to Pop TV, a cable channel owned by CBS Corporation, Marianne Garvey reports. Read on...
>> I love this twist: "The show will also be broadcast on CBS," where it originally aired in the 1970s and 80s, following its run on Pop!
FOR THE RECORD, PART SIX
By Lisa Respers France:
-- Duane "Dog" Chapman has revealed his wife Beth's final words: "I love you" and "Are you guys all okay? Don't worry."
-- Country star Jake Owen clapped back at an anti-LGBTQ commenter who took issue with his cover of Cher's "Believe" and support of the community.
-- Turns out you really can get just about anything from Amazon. Taylor Swift will be headlining the company's first Prime Day Concert, which naturally will be streamed on Amazon Prime...
| | | Thank you for reading! See you tomorrow... | | | |   |
| ترك برس - النشرة 28-06-2019 Posted: 27 Jun 2019 09:15 PM PDT |
| Watch with us: Night Two of the first Democratic debate Posted: 27 Jun 2019 05:51 PM PDT |
| All eyes on Biden and Bernie Posted: 27 Jun 2019 04:52 PM PDT TicToc Tonight Greetings, TicToc readers! Thursday's almost over. Here's what's happening: But first...  A night of stark 2020 contrasts aheadDemocratic presidential frontrunners Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders will take the debate stage tonight in their first side-by-side appearance in the 2020 campaign. Flanked by younger, more diverse opponents, the two white male septuagenarians will be positioned at the center of the stage, and the contrasts between the two will be carefully watched as they chart markedly different paths to the party's nomination. Headlines from around the worldThe U.S. Supreme Court put on hold the White House's plan to include a citizenship question on the 2020 census. Trump said he'll try to delay it. SCOTUS also ruled against challengers to gerrymandering, saying it has no constitutional authority to throw out voting maps for being too partisan. G-20 attendees converged on Osaka for the two-day summit where defense, trade, oil policy and Iran are expected to be the hot topics. Jony Ive, Apple's longtime design chief, will leave later this year to form his own company—with Apple as one of its primary clients. A $4.6 billion aid package was passed by Congress to address the migrant crisis along the U.S.-Mexico border. Data of the daySpeaking their piece. Warren's polling dominance ahead of the first debate didn't translate into the most speaking time. Booker and O'Rourke both spoke longer on Wednesday night.  Coffee-drinking Brits are staying at home. U.K. Starbucks reported a $22 million annual loss as consumer confidence sags over Brexit. At 182 minutes, Avengers: Endgame wasn't long enough. Disney is releasing an even longer version with additional scenes. Women's soccer faces a TV test. England's Football Association is selling broadcast rights separate from men's matches for the first time. This'll only take a minuteAre you on WhatsApp? Give us one minute a day and we'll send you all the top stories and why they matter. It's more than just headlines. It's context, analysis and commentary to give you the bigger picture.
Sign up today.  Don't miss this"Such disrespect to our country!" 39kg of cocaine was found on the plane carrying Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro's team to the G-20. Royal pressure. Although he'd worry about discrimination, Prince William said he'd fully support his children if they came out as LGBTQ. "The chancellor is fine." Angela Merkel appeared shaking for the second time in 10 days at a Berlin ceremony, as a heatwave lingers in Europe.  Before you goBaby Trump's not alone. Climate change activists at the G20 raised a giant balloon of Japan's PM Shinzo Abe to protest his support of coal-fired power plants.  Thanks for reading! Watch your inbox for our next newsletter tomorrow. Until then, share TicToc Tonight with your friends.
-Andrew Mach | |   |
| Dalai Lama Slams Mass Migration, Says "Keep Europe for Europeans" Posted: 27 Jun 2019 04:57 PM PDT | | | Spiritual leader tells BBC refugees should be returned to their home countries. Paul Joseph Watson | Infowars.com | | | | | Adan Salazar | Infowars.com | | | Kaitlin Bennett | Infowars.com | | | | | | Millie Weaver | Infowars.com | | | Savanah Hernandez | Infowars.com | | | Paul Joseph Watson | Infowars.com | | | Steve Watson | Infowars.com | | | Ben Warren | Europewars.com | | | |  |
| In Memoriam: Jennie Litvack, beloved wife of TWI Executive Director Posted: 27 Jun 2019 03:43 PM PDT | | | IN MEMORIAM JENNIE I. LITVACK, 1963-2019 Beloved Wife of Washington Institute Executive Director Robert Satloff | |
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| | With great sadness, The Washington Institute mourns the passing of Jennie Ilene Litvack, wife of the organization's longtime director and a cherished member of the Institute family for more than thirty years. She was 55.
A native of Montreal, Jennie received her undergraduate degree at Duke University, where she met fellow student Rob Satloff, and then went on to earn her master's and doctoral degrees from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University. Rob and Jennie were together from the mid-1980s, married in 1990 and lived joyfully over the years in Oxford, England; Yaounde, Cameroon; Zichron Yaakov, Israel; Rabat, Morocco as well as Washington, DC and Chevy Chase, MD.
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| | An economist by training, Jennie traveled the globe for twenty years for the World Bank, helping to fight poverty and improve living standards as lead economist of human development for Latin America, lead economist for Morocco, and country economist for Vietnam, among other positions. Her doctoral research on pharmaceutical pricing in rural health centers in northern Cameroon played a key role in implementing a major push to ensure access to medications for millions of people throughout Africa.
After her retirement from the Bank in 2010, Jennie shifted focus from the highly technical to the deeply spiritual. At Adas Israel Congregation, the largest Conservative synagogue in the nation's capital, she led the lay effort to establish the Jewish Mindfulness Center of Washington, a pathbreaking project that won two national awards for innovative Jewish programming. And she helped bring mindfulness and religious pluralism to Israel through her work as a board member of Or Halev, the Center for Jewish Spirituality and Meditation.
In addition, a decade ago, Jennie found her calling as Adas Israel's beloved ba'alat tekiya (shofar blower). She created such powerful, evocative, melodic sounds that services overflowed on the Jewish High Holidays to hear her. The "goddaughter" of famed jazz trumpeter Dizzy Gillespie, who she met when she was 14 and with whom she stayed close friends for the rest of his life, Jennie was featured on National Public Radio for her magical ability to make music out of the sounds of her special shofar, a four-foot long African kudu horn.
But of all her accomplishments, Jennie was proudest of her three wonderful sons – Benji, who graduated from Duke in May; William, a rising sophomore at Washington University in St. Louis; and David, who just completed fifth grade at the Charles E. Smith Jewish Day School.
In addition to her husband and sons, Jennie is survived by her mother, Naomi Litvack of Montreal; her older sister Karen Dagenais of Woodbury, Minnesota, and her children Dylan and Katrina; her younger sister Dina Lubin of Toronto, Ontario, and her son Scott; her extended family and a multitude of dear friends, both close to home and around the world.
The Trustees, Fellows and Staff of The Washington Institute extend their deepest condolences to Rob and his family on Jennie's passing. Jennie's funeral will take place Sunday, June 30, 1 p.m., at Adas Israel Congregation, 2850 Quebec St., NW, Washington, DC 20008. Her family will sit shiva and receive visitors at their home, 4902 Essex Avenue, Chevy Chase, MD, 20815, on Sunday following interment until 9 pm and Monday-Thursday, morning services at 7:30 am; visitation from 2-5 pm and 7-9 pm, with evening services at 7:30 pm. Donations should be made to the Jennie Litvack Memorial Fund at Adas Israel Congregation, which will support the redesign of the gallery adjacent to the synagogue's entry foyer as a special contemplative space to be dedicated in her memory and will, in Israel, promote greater religious pluralism and the spread of mindful Judaism through the important work of Or Halev. | |
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| Bahrain’s Risks, Reviewing Istanbul, U.S.-Iran Precedents, and More Posted: 27 Jun 2019 02:57 PM PDT |  | | | |  | POLICYWATCH 3145 Michael Eisenstadt June 27, 2019 Despite its measured approach thus far, Tehran may come to view the latest showdown as an existential conflict that warrants greater risk-taking.
|  | POLICY FORUM REPORT Soner Cagaptay, Lisel Hintz, Kemal Kirisci, and Alan Makovsky June 26, 2019 Four experts discuss the opposition's landslide victory and its implications for Turkish politics generally and President Erdogan's future specifically.
|  | FIKRA FORUM Marika Sosnowski and Paul Hastings June 25, 2019 Operating outside UN coordination mechanisms has created a shadow system of aid delivery that Moscow could use to undermine its adversaries.
|  | POLICYWATCH 3143 Katherine Bauer June 24, 2019 The international community should focus on reforming the Paris Protocol and convincing the Palestinians to resume revenue transfers from Israel.
|  | POLICY ALERT Simon Henderson June 24, 2019 The island may reap benefits from hosting such a high-profile event, but how will domestic sectarian communities and nearby Iran react?
|  | POLICYWATCH 3141 Barak Barfi June 21, 2019 The resilient Brotherhood is only feeding off the repression campaign, which cannot ensure stability indefinitely given the government's many failures.
|  | POLICY FORUM REPORT Michel Duclos and Robert Ford June 21, 2019 Former American and French ambassadors discuss the regime's calculus and preview the upcoming U.S.-Russia summit in Jerusalem.
|  | POLICYWATCH 3140 Haisam Hassanein June 20, 2019 His deep unpopularity made it difficult for many actors at home and abroad to criticize the current government.
|  | OP-ED Elana DeLozier Caravan, June 20, 2019 Washington should view the Yemen war as a chance to bring Gulf governments into NATO-like agreements that help minimize future policy dilemmas.
|  | OP-ED David Pollock Asharq al-Awsat, June 19, 2019 The price of oil is often directly related to global economic prospects, so Washington's tariff tiff with Beijing could hit regional states doubly hard.
|  | | | turkey | Soner Cagaptay spoke with Vox about how Erdogan has unwittingly surrendered his "underdog" image by ordering and then losing a new election in Istanbul.
| iran | Katherine Bauer told the New Yorker that new sanctions on Iranian leaders were meant to "send a message" in response to the drone shootdown and other recent escalation.
| ARAB-ISRAEL | David Makovsky told the New York Times that Bahrain conference participants should consider peace measures that are "tangible in the short term" rather than focusing entirely on far-off economic visions.
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| BREAKING NEWS: House clears border aid bill after Pelosi bows to McConnell Posted: 27 Jun 2019 02:22 PM PDT The House cleared a $4.6 billion emergency aid package to address the humanitarian crisis at the border, sending the bill to President Donald Trump for his signature. The overwhelming vote in favor of the bill comes after Speaker Nancy Pelosi fought Republicans and members of her own caucus to push for additional language to protect migrant children before conceding to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Read more: https://politi.co/2X7TFZI
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| Researchers aren’t buying industry concerns about weed edibles Posted: 27 Jun 2019 02:21 PM PDT | The government is starting with low dosages — but for people who are experienced cannabis users, it's much too low. Air Canada and Transat have a combined 60 per cent slice of the transatlantic market from Canada. The Ontario government's changes to university and college tuition will mean that higher-income people will pay less overall, while middle-income and lower-income people will see their costs go up, according to a new analysis. Of 70 whale deaths between 2003 and 2018, 22 deaths were because of entanglement, and 16 from vessel strikes. UNAIDED is a HuffPost Canada series that examines the effects of recent funding cuts to Ontario’s legal aid system and the impacts on the vulnerable people who rely on it to navigate our complicated justice system. 👍 You're all set. Have a great day. HuffPost is now part of Verizon Media Group. On May 25, 2018, we introduced a new privacy policy, which explains how your data is used and shared. Learn more.Follow HuffPost Canada on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram
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| Gerrymandering is here to stay Posted: 27 Jun 2019 02:17 PM PDT Evening Briefing The U.S. Supreme Court put on hold President Donald Trump's plan to include a citizenship question on the 2020 census, calling the explanation for it inadequate. Commerce Department Secretary Wilbur Ross argued the query would help enforce the Voting Rights Act, while critics howled that it's a barely veiled attempt to scare off millions of people in Democratic-leaning areas from taking the survey. Trump now wants to delay the constitutionally mandated count until the high court can make a final ruling on the matter. —Josh Petri Here are today's top storiesIn a separate ruling, the court's conservative majority refused to throw out gerrymandered voting maps, effectively giving parties that control state legislatures license to redraw districts to cement their political advantages. Boeing tumbled after tests on the 737 Max revealed a new safety risk. Regulators ordered additional design changes to the grounded jet. The White House is developing a plan to cut taxes by indexing capital gains to inflation. The move, like the earlier Republican tax cut, would largely benefit the wealthy, and may be done in a way that bypasses Congress. Fashion photographer Baruch Vega ran a scheme that ensnared cocaine kingpins and gave him a life of luxury, Bloomberg Businessweek reports. Then one of them put a price on his head. Police found 39 kg of cocaine in the luggage of a crew member on a Brazilian Air Force plane taking President Jair Bolsonaro's advance party to the G-20 summit. Bitcoin soared to $13,852 this week, the highest price since January 2018. It also plunged more than $1,800 within 10 minutes. What's Joe Weisenthal thinking about? The Bloomberg news director is waiting for this weekend's G-20 meeting to see if somehow the U.S. and China can get trade negotiations back on track. But regardless of what's agreed to or not, it's worth wondering about how much damage has already been done. The bottom line is, if you're a business attempting to make long-term plans, there's virtually no reason to think that the rules that exist today will be the same tomorrow, or that the rules tomorrow will be the same as six months from now. What you'll need to know tomorrow What you'll want to read tonightWalk into The RealReal on Manhattan's Upper East Side and you'll find the kind of fashion that's de rigueur for the 1%. There are $8,000 Oscar de la Renta jackets and Hermes alligator handbags priced to move at $30,000. Sound like a niche market? Don't be so sure: The company raked in $207 million in total revenue last year and is preparing to go public this week.  Like Bloomberg's Evening Briefing? Subscribe to Bloomberg.com. You'll get our unmatched global news coverage and two premium daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close, and much, much more. See our limited-time introductory offer. Wake up with the biggest stories in politics: Balance of Power, which arrives in your inbox every morning, breaks down the latest political news, analysis, charts, and dispatches from Bloomberg reporters around the globe. Sign up here. Download the Bloomberg app: It's available for iOS and Android. | |   |
| Khamenei Will See Latest Sanctions as a Challenge to the Revolution (PolicyWatch 3146) Posted: 27 Jun 2019 02:08 PM PDT KHAMENEI WILL SEE SANCTIONS ON HIM AS A DIRECT CHALLENGE TO THE REVOLUTION by Patrick Clawson and Mehdi Khalaji PolicyWatch 3146
June 27, 2019 The Supreme Leader regards his rule as the central feature of the Islamic Revolution, so the latest White House order will seem like a shot at the entire system. READ THIS ITEM ON OUR WEBSITE
The natural temptation when analyzing new U.S. sanctions against Iran is to ask what economic impact they will have. By that metric, President Trump’s June 24 executive order may seem modest—it closes the U.S. financial system to those who deal with individuals directly appointed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, or with institutions controlled by these appointees. Economic impact is the wrong metric, however. The main U.S. objective is to press Iran’s leaders, not reduce the country to poverty. Therefore, a better question to ask is: how will the new sanctions affect Iran’s leaders? The answer is clear: no steps could be better designed to infuriate the regime’s top official than the June 24 executive order. IN KHAMENEI’S EYES, HE IS THE REVOLUTION The essence of Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution was the concept of “guardianship of the jurist,” or velayat-e faqih. This was the rock on which the revolution was founded, embedded in a constitution that gives absolute power to the nation’s top jurist, the Supreme Leader. Khamenei’s predecessor, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, once ruled that the Supreme Leader has the authority to set aside not only any Iranian civic law, but also any aspect of Islamic law if he deems it expedient. Since assuming power in 1989, Khamenei has taken velayat-e faqih several steps further. Under Khomeini, many leading clerics were lukewarm toward the principle or even critical of it. Yet Khamenei has repeatedly made statements like the following: “All Muslims including the grand ayatollahs should obey the orders of the ruling jurist...Commitment to the ruling jurist is indistinguishable from commitment to Islam...The ruling jurist’s decisions and authorities...precede and trump the will and authority of the people in case of conflict between them.” Furthermore, Khamenei has built an imposing cult of personality. Iranian media are required to refer to him not with the constitutional title of “Leader,” but as “Exalted Supreme Leader.” Speech after speech by senior officials demands loyalty not just to velayat-e faqih but to Khamenei himself. Those seen as criticizing him are treated harshly even if they espouse loyalty to the principle that gives him full power, as happened with former presidential candidates Mehdi Karrubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi. Khamenei has long argued that opposition to the Supreme Leader is the central element in America’s supposed plans for regime change. In 1997, for instance, he argued, “Global arrogance [his catchphrase for the United States and its allies] thought that it could try a more effective way to fight the Islamic Revolution. After much study, it came to the conclusion that it should target the leader of the revolution, because it knows that with a powerful leader in Islamic Iran, all their conspiracies would fail.” WHAT DOES THE JUNE 24 ORDER DO? Among other provisions, Executive Order 13876 specifically freezes the U.S. assets of any person who has “materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods and services to” individuals appointed by the Supreme Leader. These individuals include both “state officials” and the heads of “any entity located in Iran, or any entity located outside of Iran that is owned or controlled by one or more entities in Iran.” In addition, the order authorizes the Treasury secretary, in consultation with the secretary of state, to impose tough sanctions on foreign financial institutions that have “knowingly conducted or facilitated any significant financial transaction for or on behalf of any person” that meets the above criteria. For example, strong action can now be taken against Iraqi or Lebanese banks that open accounts for institutions whose leaders are appointed by Khamenei, such as the Headquarters for the Restoration of Holy Shrines or a host of ostensibly charitable foundations. Many of these institutions are technically separate from the Iranian government and therefore not necessarily subject to previous U.S. sanctions (specifically, the Obama administration’s February 2012 sanctions against state agencies). Consider that Washington has never directly sanctioned the Foundation for the Oppressed and Disabled (Bonyad-e Mostazafan va Janbazan), a huge organization that has fought hard to keep itself legally distinct from the government even though it is directly controlled by the Supreme Leader. Such institutions are often active in Iraq, Lebanon, Afghanistan, and other countries where the threat of U.S. sanctions could scare local banks into cutting them off. KHAMENEI’S NEXT STEPS By targeting the Supreme Leader in such a personal way, the June 24 order will have a broader effect: convincing him that the U.S. objective is to overthrow his regime. Although this will reinforce a belief he has held for years, the more important issue is whether the order will change his actions, not his beliefs. In a May 29 speech, Khamenei assessed the U.S. strategy as follows: “They exert pressure to exhaust the other side. When they feel that the other side is exhausted and might accept their terms, they say, ‘Very well, let us negotiate.’ Negotiations complement their pressures.” He then argued that Iran’s only possible response is to gain leverage against the United States so that it can be in a position of strength. In his view, Iran has ample “instruments of exerting pressure” at its disposal and should use them. He did not spell out which instruments he meant, but he was presumably referring to the projects Iran has been so busy with lately: reactivating its nuclear program and threatening Gulf oil supplies. Whatever the case, Tehran has indeed gained leverage. Whereas two months ago the narrative centered on Washington’s unexpected success at imposing real pain on Iran’s economy, today’s focus is on how dangerous and volatile the region has become, with many world leaders now pushing for compromise. Khamenei’s interest in gaining leverage could actually be good news if it means he is willing to consider new talks. The problem is that he has long been suspicions of negotiations and compromises, often describing them as a slippery slope (e.g., see his bitter resistance to compromise after Iran’s mass protests of 2009, or his exhortations to Hezbollah and the Palestinians about sticking with “resistance” against Israel instead of negotiating). Certainly his recent rhetoric shows no sign of interest in talking with the United States. During his televised remarks after meeting with Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe on June 13, Khamenei insultingly declared, “We have no doubt in your goodwill and seriousness, but regarding what you said the U.S. president told you, I don’t consider Trump as a person worthy of exchanging messages with...I have no response for him and will not answer him.” And in a June 26 speech, he stated, “Negotiations are their way of deceiving you so as to get what they want. You hold the gun and the other side doesn’t dare approach you; so they say drop your gun so that I can harm you. This is what they mean by negotiations...If you surrender to them, you’re done for! And if you don’t accept [surrender], they will keep fussing about human rights excuses.” The new executive order will likely heighten such rhetoric, but the reality is that if Khamenei accepts negotiations, he will do so not because he wants them, but because he believes they are necessary to preserve his rule—even if he rails against them the whole time. On May 14 he declared that “negotiation is poison,” reminiscent of Ayatollah Khomeini’s 1988 statement that ending the war with Iraq was “more deadly than drinking hemlock.” The June 24 order takes Washington another step down the path of pressing Khamenei to drink the “poison” and allow new talks. And drink it he may—as his grudging tolerance of the 2015 nuclear deal showed, he can be pushed into doing things he deeply opposes if he believes they are essential to preserving the system. Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and director of research at The Washington Institute. Mehdi Khalaji is the Institute’s Libitzky Family Fellow.
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| ‘Interest rates’ may be a thing of the past Posted: 27 Jun 2019 01:44 PM PDT Bloomberg Opinion Today Today's Agenda  The Forever Interest Rate War In the year 2117 Austria will very nearly be beachfront property, and one of its 100-year government bonds will mature. During that time, investors (and/or their descendants and/or their brains downloaded into robots) who bought a reissue of the bond this week will enjoy a whopping yield of … 1.17% per year. Though that is less than euro-area inflation, this bond issue was in hot demand, writes Marcus Ashworth. This is the latest example of what we described earlier this week as a desperate scramble for yield in a world where central banks are pushing interest rates toward zero … and below. In fact, nearly 40% of the world's government bonds yield less than zero, notes David Fickling – meaning you pay for the privilege of lending these governments money. Due to bond-market sorcery this makes sense for some investors, though David notes they may get a similar total return from gold, which helps explain the shiny stuff's recent popularity. So maybe it's not a sign of impending apocalypse. And that's good because plunging rates (and soaring gold prices) can seem apocalyptic. But Japan has been wallowing in the shallow end of the rate pool for a long time now without the world ending. This could be a preview of what's to come for the U.S., Noah Smith suggests. That's because both countries have massive budget deficits and the prospect of bigger ones ahead. Keeping the government solvent is one reason rates have stayed near zero in Japan for so long, Noah writes. Our robot selves may still be hunting for yield in 2117. The Border Is a Five-Alarm Crisis The image of Oscar Alberto Martinez and his 23-month-old daughter, Angie Valeria Martinez, who drowned together in the Rio Grande, has joined the image of Alan Kurdi, the three-year-old Syrian boy who drowned in the Mediterranean, as an iconic image of a refugee crisis, writes Leonid Bershidsky. The situations that led to both deaths are similar, Leonid writes, with one big difference: Europe did its best to process asylum-seekers, while Trump simply pushes them away. That's the kind of approach that indirectly killed the Martinezes. Their deaths come after more alarming revelations about the suffering of children in detention facilities along the border. Karl Smith suggests both parties are playing politics with this crisis and that they need to pass a bill quickly that pleases everyone, including President Donald Trump, to quickly deliver some relief. Problematic Products It's rare these days to find a safety problem with an airplane in regular commercial service; finding two is rarer still. But the FAA has found a second problem with Boeing Co.'s 737 Max. This raises questions about Boeing's safety procedures, writes David Fickling. The company should thank goodness it operates in a duopoly with Airbus, or it would actually be in real trouble. Bayer AG, meanwhile, has a problem with the Roundup weedkiller it inherited when it bought Monstanto. It keeps losing lawsuits claiming the stuff causes cancer, and activist Elliott Management Co. wants it to just settle already. That might cost $10 billion, but Elliott thinks it could also unlock $34 billion in market value, Chris Hughes writes. It's definitely a better idea than endless court battles. California Crises California has a water problem. Namely, it's running out of it, and too much of what it does have is polluted. The state needs money to knit together a crazy-quilt of different systems and regulations, writes Bloomberg's editorial board; but it keeps making bad choices, including raiding funds meant to deal with climate change. Meanwhile, the state's biggest utility, PG&E Corp., is trying to climb out of a bankruptcy triggered by the state's devastating wildfires. It has a plan for leaving Chapter 11, but Liam Denning notes it would put much of the burden of future costs on California's ratepayers. Some activist investors (including the aforementioned Elliott) have a better plan. Further Activist Investor Reading: Carl Icahn has a point about Occidental Petroleum Corp.'s expensive Anadarko deal. – Liam Denning Let's Get Ready to Re-Rumble Well, we survived it: the first Democratic debate, which was about as chaotic as expected. It was also revealing, however, of the party's policy-heavy approach to pretty much everything, writes Jonathan Bernstein. Fittingly, its star was Elizabeth "I Have a Plan for That" Warren, along with standout performances from Cory Booker and Julian Castro. Karl Smith was not thrilled with the policies on offer, however. He suggests Joe Biden must stop the party's leftward drift in the second debate tonight, which will feature an avowed socialist, Senator Bernie Sanders. Further Opposition Party Reading: Democrats have secured Robert Mueller testimony, but there's a high risk they'll blow their chance to make it meaningful. – Jonathan Bernstein Telltale Charts Apple Inc. may be reticent to discuss its driverless-car project because it's not going so great; but it still must be more open about it, writes Shira Ovide.  As Jair Bolsonaro's plane could tell you, cocaine use is rising again in the U.S. and Europe, and technology is partly to blame, writes Leonid Bershidsky.  Further Reading Chief Justice John Roberts's decision to temporarily forbid a citizenship question on the 2020 census does just enough to avoid making the Supreme Court look fully partisan. – Noah Feldman The Supreme Court's approval of partisan gerrymandering is the right call. – Stephen Carter There's a way Recep Tayyip Erdogan can get back into NATO's good graces, if only Trump would offer it and Erdogan would take it. – Bobby Ghosh As G-20 leaders gather in Osaka, Carole Ghosn reminds them of Japan's terrible justice system. – Joe Nocera Trump is wrong to seek a weaker dollar. – Bill Dudley Ford Motor Co.'s European layoffs are grim but inevitable. – Chris Bryant The world's unbanked are doing fine without Facebook Inc.'s Libra. – Adam Minter ICYMI Trump considers a capital-gains tax cut for the wealthy. Twitter's new rules could affect Trump. The charmed life of a $4.6 billion Tiger Cub. Kickers The simple genius of checklists. The Pentagon can now ID you by your heartbeat from 200 meters away. How TikTok became the future of music. How to remember everything. Note: Please send checklists and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. New to Bloomberg Opinion Today? Sign up here and follow us on Twitter and Facebook. | |   |
| Sophie Turner and Joe Jonas arrive at magnificent French château where they will wed Posted: 27 Jun 2019 01:44 PM PDT | If you are having trouble viewing this email click here |  | | 6/27/19 |  | | | |  | | | ALMOST HERE!
Sophie Turner and Joe Jonas Arrive at Magnificent French Château Where They Will Wed | | | | Joe Jonas and Sophie Turner's French wedding comes after their surprise Vegas wedding in May, which was documented by Diplo on Instagram | | | | |  | | | STAR TRACKS
George & Amal Have a Date in Italy, Plus Jake Gyllenhaal, Lizzo & More | | | | From Hollywood to New York and everywhere in between, see what your favorite stars are up to | | | | | | | | |  | | | HURTFUL COMMENTS
Tori Spelling's Son Liam, 12, Asked If He's 'Obese' After Getting Body Shamed Online | | | | Dean McDermott said that their 12-year-old son was hurt by online cyberbullying | | | | | | | | |  | | | EXCITING NEWS!
Meghan Markle and Prince Harry Announce Official Africa Tour This Fall — with Baby Archie! | | | | "This will be their first tour as a family!" the Sussexes posted on Instagram | | | | |  | | | FATAL SHARK ATTACK
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| Add your site to Entireweb Business Directory Posted: 27 Jun 2019 01:45 PM PDT Add your site to Entireweb Business Directory | | | | Reach thousands of people every day! Listing your business in Entireweb Business Directory helps your website to gain exposure to thousands of people visiting Entireweb every day. These are people who are actively searching for websites that are directly related to your products or services. We make it easy for them to find you. | | | | |  |
| BREAKING NEWS: Pelosi bows to McConnell on border aid bill Posted: 27 Jun 2019 12:29 PM PDT Speaker Nancy Pelosi formally conceded to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in a weeks-long battle with the GOP over a border aid bill, saying the House will take up the Senate's version of the relief package. The move caps four days of havoc amid a contentious debate within Pelosi's caucus over how to respond to the mounting humanitarian crisis. Read more: https://politi.co/2X7TFZI
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| News Alert: Tillerson told House panel that Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner left him in the dark on conversations with foreign nations Posted: 27 Jun 2019 10:05 AM PDT Former secretary of state Rex Tillerson met privately with members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee last month to discuss the Trump administration's foreign policy, including issues related to Russia. A redacted transcript of the seven-hour meeting was released Thursday.                      |
| Most Social: First night of Democratic debate: Who were the winners and losers Posted: 27 Jun 2019 10:01 AM PDT | Elizabeth Warren lost, Julián Castro won, and others who had -- or didn't have -- breakout moments during the Wednesday's Democratic debate. | |    |
| Dem Debate Circus Ready For Act Two Posted: 27 Jun 2019 09:28 AM PDT Tune into the Live Show | | Alex Jones here! Tune in now! The second half of the crowded field of Dems competing for a shot to lose to President Trump in 2020 is set to perform in tonight’s Democratic presidential debates that all Americans have been looking forward to for very different reasons. Learn why conservatives are eagerly anticipating tonight’s liberal circus more than progressives! Watch today’s LIVE BROADCAST to learn what the mainstream media failed to tell their audience about the liberal debates!Also, watch our live Clown World broadcast of the Democratic debates tonight at 7 p.m. Central to hear cutting-edge analysis you won’t get anywhere else! Tune into infowars.com/show Monday-Friday from 11AM-3PM Central and Sunday 4-6 PM Central to watch the most banned broadcast in the world with breaking news and commentary exclusively from me and other great Infowars hosts and guests!Tell your friends and family to tune into infowars.com/show to watch today's broadcast and beat the Big Tech censors! As Infowars faces unprecedented censorship, it's more important than ever that you spread this link. Remember – if you’re receiving this email, you are the resistance. | | |  |
| Rukban’s Humanitarian Purgatory Posted: 27 Jun 2019 08:08 AM PDT | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | | | | Jesse Marks | June 26, 2019 As the Syrian government—with Russian assistance—consolidates its control over eastern Syria, Rukban camp's IDPs face starvation or a return to violence. | | | | | | |   |
| BREAKING NEWS: Supreme Court deals setback to Trump administration attempt to add census citizenship question Posted: 27 Jun 2019 08:01 AM PDT The Supreme Court dealt an unexpected blow today to the Trump administration's move to add a controversial citizenship question to the 2020 census, ruling that official explanations for the move were implausible and legally inadequate. In a surprising ruling, Chief Justice John Roberts joined the court's liberals on that point. The high court returned the case to lower courts for further action, raising doubts about the administration getting the go-ahead to add the question before upcoming deadlines to finalize the census questionnaire. Read more: https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/27/supreme-court-ruling-census-citizenship-question-1385304 To change your alert settings, please go to https://secure.politico.com/settings
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| شاهد: الصور الأولى من موقع انفجار شارع الحبيب بورقيبة في العاصمة تونس Posted: 27 Jun 2019 07:59 AM PDT شاهد: الصور الأولى من موقع انفجار شارع الحبيب بورقيبة في العاصمة تونس... | نسخة على الإنترنت | | نسختك الخاصة من أخبار يورونيوز – 06/27/19 |
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| Past U.S.-Iran Confrontations Hold Lessons (Eisenstadt | PolicyWatch 3145) Posted: 27 Jun 2019 07:51 AM PDT PAST U.S.-IRAN CONFRONTATIONS HOLD LESSONS FOR CURRENT CRISIS by Michael Eisenstadt PolicyWatch 3145
June 27, 2019 Despite its measured approach thus far, Tehran may come to view the latest showdown as an existential conflict with an irresolute adversary, warranting greater risk-taking on its part. READ THIS ITEM ON OUR WEBSITE
As Iran’s military ripostes to America’s “maximum pressure” campaign threaten to spark a broader conflict, U.S. decisionmakers should bear in mind the lessons of prior military confrontations. On several occasions over the past three decades, Washington has grappled with similar challenges of escalation, coercion, and deterrence, including the naval convoy operations during the Iran-Iraq War, the lethal assistance that Tehran provided to Shia militant groups “resisting” the U.S. occupation of Iraq, and the competing pressure campaigns that preceded the 2015 nuclear deal. GULF CONVOY OPERATIONS (1987-1988) In response to Iranian small-boat attacks on neutral shipping during the latter phases of the Iran-Iraq War, the United States initiated Operation Earnest Will in July 1987 to escort reflagged Kuwaiti oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. With the start of operations, the Reagan administration warned Iran against attacking the convoys with Silkworm missiles as they transited the Strait of Hormuz. The administration assumed that the presence of the USS Kitty Hawk carrier group would deter Iranian countermoves. Yet while the launch of convoy operations spurred the Iranians to dramatically reduce their small-boat attacks, they were quick to challenge the United States indirectly; during the very first convoy, the tanker Bridgeton struck a covertly sown mine. Due to the limited damage, lack of casualties, and a desire to avoid escalation, U.S. officials declined to respond. Within months, however, Tehran ramped up both its small-boat attacks and its mining operations. In September 1987, U.S. forces caught the Iran Ajr laying mines in international waters; they scuttled the ship and detained the crew. The following month, regime forces launched two Silkworm missiles at a reflagged tanker in Kuwaiti waters, skirting the U.S. redline by conducting the attack somewhere besides the Strait of Hormuz. Perhaps to obscure their role, the attackers used captured Iraqi Silkworms from the occupied al-Faw Peninsula. The United States responded by destroying two Iranian oil platforms used to support attacks; Iran retaliated with a Silkworm strike against Kuwaiti oil terminals that instead hit a decoy barge. After Washington adopted more assertive tactics, Iran launched another mining operation in February 1988. The destroyer USS Samuel B. Roberts struck a mine two months later, spurring the Navy to destroy two more oil platforms used to support Iranian operations. In response, Iranian naval forces attacked several U.S. warships, which led the U.S. military to launch Operation Praying Mantis. During this action, the Navy sank an Iranian missile boat, frigate, and small boat; it also damaged a second frigate and several small boats, which fought on despite facing long odds. This marked the end of Iran’s mining operations, and with the ground war turning against it, attacks on shipping declined sharply for the duration of the fighting. In July 1988, during one of these increasingly rare surface actions, the USS Vincennes accidentally shot down an Iranian Airbus passenger jet, mistakenly believing it was a fighter jet. All 290 passengers perished, and Iran apparently believed it was an intentional act. The perception that the United States was entering the war on Iraq’s side helped convince Tehran to end the conflict. In sum, Iran was not deterred by initial U.S. intervention, and American restraint only emboldened it. Tehran challenged the United States by indirect means (covertly sown minefields), circumvented U.S. redlines by using missiles against reflagged ships no longer under escort, and ramped up attacks on unescorted shipping that was not part of the reflagging operation. The regime did not pull back until its own costs became prohibitive. At the same time, U.S. intervention apparently deterred direct attacks on convoys, forced Iran to rely on less effective tactics, and eventually contributed to a diplomatic solution to the fighting—though a series of devastating Iraqi victories on land contributed to this outcome and distinguish these events from today’s crisis. PROXY WARFARE AGAINST U.S. TROOPS IN IRAQ (2003-2011) During the U.S. occupation of Iraq, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force armed, trained, and financed Iraqi militias and insurgent groups that killed more than 600 U.S. troops. Tehran apparently hoped to tie down U.S. forces, dampen America’s appetite for further regional military adventures, and help its proxies eventually push the United States out of Iraq. With American forces ensconced next door and the stakes raised so high, Iran was willing to assume significant risk. For its part, Washington sought to disrupt Tehran’s efforts while avoiding escalation, so it generally acted with restraint. The U.S. military regularly interdicted Iranian arms shipments, and after sending a warning note that went unheeded, it detained senior Qods Force operatives on several occasions: two in Baghdad (December 2006), five in Erbil (January 2007), and another in Sulaymaniyah (September 2007). A Hezbollah operative working for Iran was detained as well (July 2007). These detentions led Iran to seek direct talks with U.S. representatives in Baghdad (which were inconclusive) and caused the Qods Force to dramatically reduce its footprint in Iraq. The United States also privately threatened military ripostes to attacks by pro-Iran groups, including rocket strikes on the U.S. embassy in Baghdad in April 2008, and rocket strikes against several U.S. bases in June 2011. The latter attacks killed fifteen soldiers. In both cases, strikes ceased after stern U.S. warnings. Overall, Washington’s efforts to constrain Iran’s support for Iraqi proxies produced only modest results. The detention of Qods Forces operatives compelled Tehran to change its modus operandi and provided a brief impetus for renewed diplomacy. Private threats of escalation twice caused Iran to stand down. But U.S. actions ultimately failed to halt Tehran’s support for attacks on American forces or limit the growth of its influence in Iraq. Moreover, Tehran made no effort to hide its role: for example, the arms it shipped to militant Shia groups often retained the manufacturer’s logos and data plates. The standoff provided by proxy cutouts was apparently more important to Iran than deniability; the regime correctly calculated that the United States would not respond militarily to proxy operations even when Iranian sponsorship was evident. COMPETING PRESSURE CAMPAIGNS (2010-2012) In light of Iran’s willingness to continue nuclear activities that violated a half dozen UN Security Council resolutions, the United States, Israel, and the European Union ratcheted up pressure in order to halt these activities through coercion or negotiations. Washington and Israel intensified their joint campaign of cyberattacks on the nuclear program, continuing them at least through 2010. Israel reportedly assassinated a number of Iranian nuclear scientists starting that same year, while also escalating its threats of preventive action against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. The United States bolstered its forward military presence in the Gulf to deal with possible fallout from an Israeli strike and intensified its drone operations over Iran and its periphery. Perhaps most important, Washington and the EU imposed harsh sanctions on Iran’s Central Bank and oil sector in 2011-2012. Yet the threat of escalation deterred the United States from using military means to pressure Iran. Iran responded in kind while eschewing steps that could spark a broader conflict. It launched cyberattacks on U.S. financial institutions (2012-2013) and oil giant Saudi Aramco (2012), plotted attacks on Israeli diplomats in retaliation for the assassination of scientists (2012), attempted to shoot down U.S. drones in the Gulf (2012-2013), and accelerated the nuclear program by increasing its number of operating centrifuges and its stockpiles of enriched uranium. These dueling pressure campaigns became enmeshed with other covert campaigns, shadow wars, and overt conflicts that in many cases predated the nuclear crisis, including the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, the geopolitical rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and the Syria war. The involvement of so many actors operating independently or in concert only heightened the potential for crossover and inadvertent escalation. Tensions eventually abated for a number of reasons. The United States and Israel curtailed their cyberattacks sometime after Iran discovered them in 2010; Israel stopped killing Iranian scientists and ceased threatening preventive action; and Washington reduced its Gulf presence in response to both the Israeli stand-down and sequestration in the U.S. military budget. More important, U.S.-EU sanctions had begun to bite, and nuclear negotiations were gaining momentum. While covert action and military pressure campaigns slowed the nuclear program, it was sanctions that eventually brought Iran to the negotiating table. Yet flaws in the 2015 nuclear agreement contributed to the Trump administration’s May 2018 decision to leave the deal, paving the way for today’s crisis. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE CURRENT CRISIS Several conclusions can be drawn from these past showdowns with Tehran: Iran shows strategic constancy, tactical flexibility. Once the regime commits to a particular strategic direction, deflecting it from this course is often difficult. Tehran will frequently test or try to circumvent an adversary’s redlines, and while it may abandon a particular approach when faced with a firm response, it soon seeks alternative means of achieving its goals. It might relinquish those goals if they become too costly, but such a decision would depend on its assessment of Washington’s motivation, risk tolerance, and willingness to bear costs of its own. In countering the U.S. maximum pressure campaign, Iranian leaders may believe they are fighting for their survival, so their tolerance for risks and costs may exceed the Trump administration’s. Iran favors indirection, ambiguity, measured actions, and patience. The Islamic Republic’s leaders have long realized that their anti-status quo policies will often bring them into conflict with the United States. To limit the potential for escalation, they have relied on indirect or covert means (e.g., mines), used proxies to provide standoff and deniability, limited themselves to tit-for-tat responses, and maintained a low operational tempo. Some of Iran’s actions in the current crisis have been consistent with these precedents. In line with its tit-for-tat approach, it has mined oil tankers in response to renewed oil sanctions, and mined petrochemical tankers in response to sanctions on its largest petrochemical company. Throughout, it has tried to avoid loss of life, whether by planting limpet mines away from a ship’s crew spaces or targeting unmanned reconnaissance aircraft. This indicates that risk and escalation management remain priorities for Tehran. In other ways, however, Iran has departed from precedent. In 2012-2013, for example, it fired at U.S. tactical drones, but last week it shot down a strategic drone, the RQ-4 Global Hawk. In addition, the scope and tempo of current operations may exceed prior campaigns when one considers its other recent actions in Gulf waters (attacks on tankers), in Iraq (proxy rocket fire on U.S. facilities), and in the Arabian Peninsula (Houthi drone attacks on a Saudi oil pipeline). Given increasingly onerous U.S. sanctions and Iran’s worsening economic situation, there is potential for even more dramatic departures from precedent. Washington needs to balance prudence, restraint, and escalation. U.S. restraint has sometimes invited additional challenges by Iran, leading to the very outcome policymakers hoped to avoid. Other times, exaggerated fears of escalation have precluded U.S. officials from using all means at their disposal to achieve key policy objectives. Both dynamics are at work in the current crisis. The Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign has leaned mainly on the economic and diplomatic levers, largely eschewing the military instrument. This could tempt Tehran to undertake even more aggressive actions. Likewise, the U.S. decision to undertake cyberattacks in response to the tanker and RQ-4 incidents underscored President Trump’s aversion to military action. Yet the administration’s ability to deter a strategically consequential Iranian cyber response may hinge on its perceived willingness to employ the conventional military means that it has thus far eschewed. Michael Eisenstadt is the Kahn Fellow and director of the Military and Security Studies Program at The Washington Institute. He would like to acknowledge David Crist and Gregory Giles, whose work greatly informed this PolicyWatch.
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