Thursday, January 23, 2020

24hespress

24hespress


Confronting Harvey Weinstein

Posted: 23 Jan 2020 05:13 PM PST

QuickTake Tonight
Bloomberg

Greetings, QuickTake readers! Tomorrow, join our panel on single-use plastics on the last day of the World Economic Forum in Davos. Submit your questions here.

First accuser takes witness stand

More than a quarter-century after she said Harvey Weinstein pinned her to a bed and raped her, actress Annabella Sciorra became the first of his accusers to testify Thursday in his New York City rape trial. In a quivering voice, the 59-year-old "Sopranos" actress confronted Weinstein from the witness stand, telling jurors his increasingly menacing behavior started with a series of creepy gifts and ended with him barging into her apartment one winter night in the early 1990s and raping her as she tried to fight him off. Outside the courthouse, her attorney, Gloria Allred told reporters that "the bottom line, in this case, is, was there consent," and Sciorra "did not consent to sexual penetration of her by Mr. Weinstein."

More:

  • Sciorra's allegations go back too long for the state to bring criminal charges but could factor in as prosecutors try to show Weinstein engaged in a pattern of predatory behavior.
  • Weinstein is charged with forcibly performing oral sex on a former "Project Runway" production assistant in 2006 and raping an aspiring actress in 2013. He has insisted any sexual encounters were consensual.

$ignificant figures

19 million. How many people live among the five Chinese cities in lockdown, as at least 25 people have died and more than 830 have been infected by the new strain of coronavirus.

100 seconds. Scientists say we're now that far away from "midnight" (aka a global catastrophe) after they moved the hands of its symbolic Doomsday Clock that had been set at two minutes since 2018. 

19. The number of U.S. states that outlaw conversion therapy for LGBTQ youth after Utah banned the discredited practice aimed at changing a person's sexual orientation that's been linked to depression and suicide.

Highly quotable

"Too early." For a second straight day, World Health Organization officials said they need more information before declaring the China coronavirus outbreak a global health emergency.

"I can protect this nation." Hours after South Korea's military discharged its first transgender soldier, Byun Hee-soo pleaded to let her serve, saying "regardless of my gender identity, I am a soldier of South Korea."

"Take all measures within its power." A panel of 17 judges on the UN's International Court of Justice ordered Myanmar to implement emergency actions to protect its minority Muslim Rohingya population.

This is not normal

Invasion. The most serious outbreak of locusts in 25 years is spreading across East Africa, partially due to climate change, and threatening food security in Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya, the UN says.

The future is now

Robo umps. Major League Baseball will test computerized umpires at spring training this year that automatically call balls and strikes from behind the plate and instantly signal to human umps via an earpiece.

What's good

New era of equality. Men may hold most political jobs in Greece, but its parliament just overwhelmingly elected high court judge and human rights advocate Katerina Sakellaropoulouas its first female president.

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Before you go: There's a Chinese horoscope for everyone this Lunar New Year. Check out yours before hundreds of millions ring in the Year of the Rat this weekend.

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See Camilla's off-the-cuff reaction when asked if she'll 'miss' Meghan Markle and Prince Harry

Posted: 23 Jan 2020 03:10 PM PST

Can Hi-Tech Transform the U.S.-Israel Relationship? (Decision Points | Episode 10)

Posted: 23 Jan 2020 11:47 AM PST

CAN HI-TECH TRANSFORM THE U.S.-ISRAEL RELATIONSHIP?
Featuring David Makovsky, Dan Shapiro, and Dan Senor

Decision Points, Episode 10
January 22, 2020

LISTEN TO THIS EPISODE


This episode discusses the growth of Israel’s hi-tech sector and its impact on relations with the United States. Much of the state’s technological innovation has stemmed from its unique history, geography, and culture, proving that necessity truly is the mother of invention. Today, technology plays a key role in the bilateral relationship, including strong ties between military research institutes in both countries, multiple congressional allocations of hi-tech military hardware in times of war, joint technology projects outside the defense sector, and the growing presence of American technology companies such as Intel, Google, Microsoft, IBM, and HP.

Dan Shapiro and Dan Senor join host David Makovsky to discuss the role that hi-tech has played in the relationship. Shapiro served as the U.S. ambassador to Israel from July 2011 to January 2017 and is currently a visiting fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. Senor is the coauthor of the bestseller Start-Up Nation: The Story of Israel’s Economic Miracle (with Saul Singer) and a leading expert on the country’s hi-tech and business sectors.



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Iranian Succession and Soleimani’s Death (Khalaji | PolicyWatch 3247)

Posted: 23 Jan 2020 10:48 AM PST

IRANIAN SUCCESSION AND THE IMPACT OF SOLEIMANI'S DEATH
by Mehdi Khalaji

PolicyWatch 3247
January 23, 2020

The general's peerless domestic stature would have served a crucial mediatory role during the eventual transition to Khamenei's successor, so his death brings significant uncertainty to that process.

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Following the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, much attention has been focused on the foreign operations conducted by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps-Qods Force. Yet his organization also played a major role at home, one whose future is now unclear. In particular, Soleimani himself was well positioned to be a unifying, steadying figure once Iran faced the challenge of determining a successor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

SOLEIMANI AS KHAMENEI’S PERFECT SOLDIER

In the Supreme Leader’s eyes, Soleimani was the epitome of how a military commander should conduct himself professionally and politically. No other senior commander was as trusted by Khamenei—a fact that was evident in the preferential treatment often accorded to him.

For instance, when Khamenei took office in 1989, he introduced a new policy of limiting the terms of service for military and political positions, including the top post at the IRGC, which was capped at ten years. Khamenei was not considered a natural successor to Ruhollah Khomeini and lacked the founding leader’s religious credentials and charisma, so carefully reshuffling the military hierarchy now and then was an alternative way of establishing and consolidating his power. Even today, when his authority is nearly absolute, rotating senior and middle-ranking staff helps him prevent commanders from forming their own power circles and alliances. Yet Soleimani was an exception to these terms limits, in part because he hailed from a small group of IRGC commanders who were close to Khamenei rather than his rivals during the transition from Ayatollah Khomeini. Once the general was appointed as commander of the Qods Force in 1997, he remained in that position until his death more than twenty years later.

Soleimani did not achieve this special status just because of his early loyalty and subsequent military achievements. Unlike the overwhelming majority of IRGC officers, he also avoided any involvement in economic and political activities, instead living a purely pious personal life. These traits endeared him to Khamenei, who often pointed to the general and his Qods Force as proof that a “resistance” strategy worked better than the diplomatic approach favored by Iranian presidents. Soleimani was unique in carrying out that strategy without making public statements in support of hardline policies or against dissenting officials, even during heated election cycles. He was impenetrable by influential power centers—he received orders directly from the Supreme Leader and was accountable only to him, so the general could not care less about what presidents or other officials wanted. The only person to whom he proudly and repeatedly expressed his blind devotion was Khamenei. In return, the Supreme Leader often described Soleimani’s character and service with epithets that have not been used for any other commander.

This mutual favoritism was also illustrated by the manner in which they conducted regional policy. In early 2019, for example, Qods Force personnel escorted Syrian president Bashar al-Assad from Damascus to Khamenei’s office in Tehran without the government’s advance knowledge. Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif reacted angrily to being excluded from the meeting and offered his resignation, but was ignored. Even President Hassan Rouhani was excluded from portions of the meeting—in contrast, Soleimani and his associates sat next to Khamenei throughout the entire session, with the Supreme Leader and Assad praising him in the warmest terms. 

In addition, thanks to state propaganda and Western media coverage, Soleimani was perceived as a hero by a great portion of Iranian society, though he explicitly cast himself not as a nationalist figure, but rather as a soldier in the service of Islam and the regime. The “national hero” label often bestowed on him is a rare epithet in Farsi, reserved for characters in Persian epics and mythology rather than modern military figures. In that sense, Soleimani became almost as ideologically sacred as Khamenei himself. Publicly criticizing his record or role was not permitted, and the regime elite tended to speak of him respectfully, even affectionately, regardless of their factional affiliations. In their eyes, he had the traits necessary to facilitate decisionmaking and build consensus in a time of crisis—an unmatched personality whose authority and wisdom would be unquestionably accepted by his military peers, the political elite, and a large portion of the population.

This reputation was further solidified in recent years whenever the Qods Force was tasked with playing a greater domestic role. For instance, after the government’s incompetent response to last year’s flooding crisis, Soleimani’s troops stepped in to provide relief. Given his portrayal of the force as a national body with multiple military and nonmilitary mandates, it will be interesting to see whether and how the new leadership feels compelled to reposition the organization.

Incoming deputy chief Mohammad Hossein-Zadeh Hejazi exemplifies this dilemma. Prior to joining the Qods Force, he was instrumental in molding the Basij militia into the repressive force that brutally put down the 2009 Green Movement protests. Although he has held foreign roles since then, his overall background is very much focused on internal security. The Qods Force has largely stayed out of the regime’s efforts to crack down on more recent unrest in Iran, such as the killing of hundreds for protesting gasoline price hikes. As a result, it has received little blame for such suppression, but that could change.

SUCCESSION NEEDS A STEADYING HAND

The eighty-eight ayatollahs who make up Iran’s Assembly of Experts are constitutionally charged with appointing the Supreme Leader’s successor, but the institution is well-known for its dependence on outside players, particularly the IRGC. Members usually win election to the assembly with direct support and funding from IRGC elements, and their ties to the military-security apparatus are much stronger than their roots in the clerical establishment. Therefore, the real decision about Khamenei’s eventual successor will need to be made outside the assembly.

Soleimani’s death makes this situation more problematic because Khamenei has steadily replaced allegiance to regime ideology with a cult of personality over the years. If he were to leave the scene anytime soon, the highly factionalized elite—including the IRGC—would have no pivotal authority on which to build a new foundation for internal unity and domestic legitimacy, thus creating an existential risk for the regime as a whole. 

The irony is that Khamenei is a “man of institutions” who firmly believes in limitless, modernized bureaucratization in order to undercut the role of individual actors. Yet his emphasis on fostering an abundance of institutions is not intended to empower the government’s democratic structures, but rather to weaken the potential for independent alliances and strong democratic institutions. Today, it is common for Iranian institutions to be assigned overlapping missions with no options for coordinating with each other or seeing themselves as accountable to any authority other than the Supreme Leader. This design helps Khamenei insulate his power against domestic threats, whether from the elite or the people, allowing him to enjoy maximum authority—but with minimum responsibility when things go wrong.

The danger of concentrating so much power in Khamenei’s hands is obvious: what happens when he is gone? Soleimani was an unparalleled alternative authority, someone who likely gave Khamenei peace of mind that the regime could remain stable when the time for transition came around. Even authoritarian regimes benefit from having such safety valves—figures who can offer guidance during times of crisis and expect it to be followed without resorting to coercive measures. Now the prospect of succession likely seems more unnerving to Tehran, and the regime’s future less certain. 

Mehdi Khalaji is the Libitzky Family Fellow at The Washington Institute.



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News Alert: Trump is preparing to release his long-awaited Middle East peace plan, will brief Israel's Netanyahu in Washington, Pence says

Posted: 23 Jan 2020 10:30 AM PST

The Israeli-Palestinian plan could be unveiled before Israeli elections in March, without input from Palestinians. The White House also plans to brief Israeli opposition leader Benny Gantz.
 
Democracy Dies in Darkness
 
 
News Alert Jan 23, 1:27 PM
 
 
Trump is preparing to release his long-awaited Middle East peace plan, will brief Israel's Netanyahu in Washington, Pence says

The Israeli-Palestinian plan could be unveiled before Israeli elections in March, without input from Palestinians. The White House also plans to brief Israeli opposition leader Benny Gantz.

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Black coaches are losing patience with the NFL’s hiring process.

Posted: 23 Jan 2020 10:12 AM PST

"You know you have no shot."
 ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ 
The Washington Post
WP EXCLUSIVE
By Robert Klemko

As word of each NFL head-coaching hire landed this week, a sprawling network of black coaches and their advocates traded messages bemoaning what they saw as the latest in a long string of insults to their fraternity. One coach summed it up in a text to his agent: "I'm sad for all of us."

Four of the league's five coaching vacancies have been filled: Joe Judge, in New York to the Giants; Mike McCarthy, in Dallas; Matt Rhule, in Carolina; and Ron Rivera, in Washington. The reported front-runners for the fifth opening, in Cleveland, are both white. If the Browns job goes to one of them, it would leave the NFL, in which roughly 70 percent of the players are black, with just three black head coaches. That's as many as there were in 2003, when the NFL instituted the Rooney Rule, requiring teams to interview at least one minority candidate when they had a vacancy.

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Most Social: Tulsi Gabbard sues Hillary Clinton over Russia comment

Posted: 23 Jan 2020 10:01 AM PST

Tulsi Gabbard claims Hillary Clinton's Russia comments were "retribution" for her endorsing Bernie Sanders over Clinton in the 2016 election. ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ 
usatoday.com

Most Social
 
Thursday, January 23
Democratic presidential candidate U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, D-Hawaii, listens as family members of victims of the terrorist attacks on 9/11 speak during a news conference at the 9/11 Tribute Museum, Tuesday, Oct. 29, 2019, in New York. (AP Photo/Mary Altaffer) ORG XMIT: NYMA110
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BREAKING NEWS: Democrats to hammer constitutional case for Trump’s removal

Posted: 23 Jan 2020 10:00 AM PST

House impeachment managers are poised to argue that the Constitution demands President Donald Trump's ouster from the presidency because of his alleged abuse of power in the Ukraine saga.

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ما هو "الفيروس الغامض" الذي أثار قلق مسؤولي الصحة في أوروبا؟

Posted: 23 Jan 2020 07:58 AM PST

منظمة الصحة العالمية بدأت تنسّق الجهود للحيولة دون انتشار هذا الوباء في جميع أنحاء العالم تجنباً...
نسخة على الإنترنت
نسختك الخاصة من أخبار يورونيوز – 01/23/20
نشرتك اليومية من الأخبار المختلفة المتنوعة
ما هو "الفيروس الغامض" الذي أثار قلق مسؤولي الصحة في أوروبا؟
منظمة الصحة العالمية بدأت تنسّق الجهود للحيولة دون انتشار هذا الوباء في جميع أنحاء العالم تجنباً لتكرار ما حصل في العام 2002 حينما تفشّى فيروس "سارس"...   إقرأ أكثر، للمزيد
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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وفقا للقانون الفرنسي المتعلق بتكنولوجيا المعلومات وملف البيانات والحريات المدنية في 6 يناير 1978، لك الحق في أي وقت أن تدخل، تصادق، أو تحذف معلومات خاصة بك، يمكنك من خلال « الكتابة إلينا في قسم "contact" أو الاتصال ».

Watch Live: The New Status Quo in Northeast Syria-Humanitarian and Security Implications

Posted: 23 Jan 2020 07:32 AM PST

Watch Live Today at 12:30 PM (ET)

THE NEW STATUS QUO IN NORTHEAST SYRIA: HUMANITARIAN AND SECURITY IMPLICATIONS

FEATURING

Gonul Tol, Wladimir van Wilgenburg, and Dana Stroul

THURSDAY, JANUARY 23, 2020
Live event broadcast on our website
Estimated time 12:30 PM - 2:00 PM (ET)

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President Trump's announcement of a U.S. withdrawal from northeast Syria, followed swiftly by the Turkish military incursion, raised urgent questions about influence and control in that critical region. While a slimmed-down U.S. contingent remains in the area, a new status quo has emerged that includes a greater role for Russia and the Assad regime and a more circumscribed role for America's local partners, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. How will this shifting balance of power affect counterterrorism efforts, humanitarian conditions, governance, and the political/military stature of various local and international actors, including the United States? To address these questions, The Washington Institute is pleased to host a Policy Forum with Gonul Tol, Wladimir van Wilgenburg, and Dana Stroul.

Gonul Tol is founding director of the Middle East Institute's Turkish Studies Program and an adjunct professor at George Washington University's Institute for Middle East Studies. She has written extensively on U.S.-Turkish relations, Turkish domestic politics, and the Kurdish issue.

Wladimir van Wilgenburg is coauthor of the 2019 book The Kurds of Northern Syria: Governance, Diversity and Conflicts (with Harriet Allsopp). A commentator for numerous international media outlets, he has covered major battles against the Islamic State on the ground in Syria and Iraq, among other regional topics.

Dana Stroul, the Kassen Fellow in The Washington Institute's Geduld Program on Arab Politics, co-chaired last year's bipartisan Syria Study Group with her Institute colleague Michael Singh. Previously, she served as a senior professional staff member on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, covering the Middle East, North Africa, and Turkey.

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Iran Arms Restrictions Set to Expire (Nadimi | PolicyWatch 3246)

Posted: 23 Jan 2020 06:25 AM PST

LIFTING THE ARMS RESTRICTIONS ON IRAN: WHAT WILL AND WON'T CHANGE
by Farzin Nadimi

PolicyWatch 3246
January 23, 2020

UN limits on Iranian weapons transactions will expire in a few short months, and even snapback sanctions may be insufficient to prevent proliferation of dangerous arms to and from the regime.

READ THIS ITEM ON OUR WEBSITE


On October 18, all restrictions imposed on Iran as part of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) will expire, and Tehran will be technically free to sell or import almost any weapons it desires. Its thirst for reentering the realm of international military collaboration and arms exchanges seems keen, as evidenced by its recent joint naval drills with Russia and China and other developments. Meanwhile, years of sanctions have led to advances in Tehran’s own weapons manufacturing industry, creating further proliferation hazards and threats to regional stability. The question is whether allowing the 2015 restrictions to expire will exacerbate these dangers, and what the United States and its allies can do about it.

IRANIAN ARMS ACTIVITY BEFORE AND DURING SANCTIONS

Between 1989 and 2007, Iran conducted numerous transactions with other nations to bolster its military arsenal. It purchased a steady stream of combat aircraft, submarines, main battle tanks, armored personnel carriers, and antiaircraft missiles from Moscow and Beijing, and engaged in collaborative design and production of antiship and antiaircraft missiles with them. It imported parts and hired weapons experts from these and other countries. And it matured key weapons programs such as the Shahab-3 medium-range ballistic missile, development of which involved internationally sourced components and assistance from North Korea, among others.

Yet many of these exchanges came to an end in 2007, when UN sanctions gained momentum in response to the exposure of Iran’s covert nuclear program. As a result, Tehran began to invest more in its domestic military industry and know-how. This shift, combined with reorganization of its armed forces and military strategy, helped the regime achieve some noteworthy advances on its own, such as producing and fielding a wide range of antiship, ballistic, and cruise missiles, developing a respectable drone industry, and reinforcing most of its air defense network using domestically produced radars and surface-to-air gun and missile systems. Iran’s recent missile attack against U.S. forces at al-Asad Air Base in Iraq involved two such domestically developed weapons, the Qiam-1/2 and Fateh-313.

Even so, Iran still suffers from technological bottlenecks and must still import certain raw materials (e.g., specialized alloys) and key components (e.g., high-performance propulsion systems). It also hopes to secure Chinese and Russian know-how and collaboration on designing and building its own next-generation heavy warships (7,000-plus tons) and submarines. Such oceangoing vessels are required to meet the regime’s goal of becoming a blue-water naval power.

Toward that end, Tehran and Beijing signed a defense cooperation memorandum in 2016. More recently, Hossein Khanzadi, commander of the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy, traveled to China last April, and a delegation led by Armed Forces General Staff chairman Mohammad Bagheri visited in September to discuss future high-level scientific and industrial cooperation. Bagheri also offered Beijing a twenty-five-year defense cooperation agreement whose secret contents were specifically endorsed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. China apparently has not responded to this offer yet, but it sent a defense and naval delegation to Tehran in November to explore operational and technological cooperation.

Meanwhile, Bagheri traveled to Moscow in February 2019 to follow up on similar defense cooperation agreements. Unconfirmed reports also indicate that Iran has offered to buy a significant number of Russian fighter jets in return for discounted crude oil.

Such cooperation with either country could take more meaningful shape when UN restrictions expire in October. This will also depend on whether U.S. sanctions continue in their current form.

WHERE THINGS STAND TODAY

Since the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 2231 in 2015, various restrictions have been placed on Iran’s weapons-related activities. Paragraph 5, Annex B of that resolution bars all member states and their nationals from supplying, selling, or transferring certain types of weapons to Iran either directly or indirectly, unless approved in advance by the council (download a PDF table detailing all UN limits on Iranian weapons). These restricted systems are limited to battle tanks, armored combat vehicles, large-caliber artillery systems, combat aircraft, attack helicopters, warships, missile systems, and related materiel, including spare parts. The paragraph does not explicitly state whether “related materiel” includes raw material, modification kits, or dual-use items, but there is legal ground for assuming that at least the first two are covered. Also subject to the council’s preapproval are the provision of technical training, advice, and related financial resources/services to Iran.

According to the UN Register of Conventional Arms, the missiles covered by this provision include “guided or unguided rockets, ballistic or cruise missiles capable of delivering a warhead or weapon of destruction to a range of at least 25 kilometers, and means designed or modified specifically for launching such missiles or rockets.” The latter subcategory includes drones with missile characteristics, such as the ones used in the September attack on Saudi Aramco oil facilities. It also includes rocket-assisted mortars; Iran is a major producer of such weapons, various calibers of which are in wide use throughout the Syrian and Iraqi conflict zones. Yet the provision excludes most surface-to-air missiles, with the exception of man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS).

Unfortunately, none of the resolutions aimed at Iran have managed to significantly curtail its missile program, due in part to their diluted language on the matter. Resolution 2231 merely “called upon” the regime not to undertake any launches or other activity related to ballistic missiles “designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons”—a vague and unverifiable definition by design. This provision will remain in force until October 2023, but Iran has been making steady progress on such missiles for years despite the restriction, and can be expected to continue doing so in the future unless it agrees to a comprehensive security deal with the West.

Paragraph 6(b), Annex B of Resolution 2231 applies similar restrictions on “the supply, sale, or transfer of arms or related materiel from Iran by their nationals or using their flag vessels or aircraft, whether or not originating in the territory of Iran.” Member states are required to take the necessary measures to prevent such activities, though the passage does not specify which arms are restricted.

At times, Iran has sought to get around these restrictions by openly transferring permitted systems to its proxies abroad, then covertly transferring restricted components to be added to those items later. For example, it has reportedly provided Iraqi Shia militias with Safir and Aras unarmed tactical vehicles, only to later smuggle prohibited parts that allow them to fit the vehicles with rocket launchers and 106 mm recoilless guns.

ROLE OF THE DISPUTE RESOLUTION MECHANISM

Under the JCPOA’s dispute resolution mechanism, if any parties to the nuclear deal believe that Iran is not meeting its commitments, they can refer the matter to the Joint Commission for resolution. On January 14, the European parties (Britain, France, and Germany) took that step in response to Iran’s recent moves away from the nuclear deal. If this matter or any future disputes remain unsolved after exhausting the resolution process with good-faith efforts, the Security Council must vote on a resolution to continue the effective suspension of previous resolutions and their associated restrictions. The council must adopt this new resolution within thirty days, which simply will not happen because the United States would surely exercise its veto.

If the new resolution fails, then previous resolutions would “snap back” into force, including UNSCR 1696, 1737, 1747, 1803, 1835, 1929, and 2224. As the PDF web table shows, these older resolutions include various nonnuclear provisions that could theoretically offer a strong international mandate to prevent weapons cooperation with Iran. Unlike the JCPOA limits, the restrictions in these older resolutions never expire; they last until the Security Council votes to repeal them, an action over which the United States has veto power.

Yet it is difficult to envisage any snapback mechanism deterring Iran from delivering arms to its regional proxies, since it has continued to do so over the years under various resolutions, using methods that are tough to prevent (e.g., placing ammunition boxes on passenger seats of chartered civilian airliners). Moreover, snapback sanctions cannot be retroactively applied to contracts that Iran has previously been permitted to sign with other parties while under the JCPOA.

CONCLUSION

At present, there is little prospect that the Security Council will sponsor any initiative to extend the current weapons restrictions past October. However, the United States could use the current enrichment dispute, Europe’s apparent readiness to get tougher on Iran, and Tehran’s latest threat to quit the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty as cause for compelling a snapback situation.

In any case, Washington should increase its individual efforts to discourage China and other countries from cooperating with Iran on sensitive military technology and know-how. It should also prepare for even greater proliferation of attributable and nonattributable Iranian weapons throughout the region’s flashpoints, in part by scrutinizing the regime’s transfer and logistical routes even more closely.

Farzin Nadimi is an associate fellow with The Washington Institute, specializing in the security and defense affairs of Iran and the Gulf region.



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Thursday Morning Briefing: Day three at the World Economic Forum

Posted: 23 Jan 2020 05:58 AM PST

DAY 3: 2020 WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM

Swiss police used water cannons, rubber bullets and tear gas to subdue demonstrators in Zurich who ignited fireworks and threw bottles as part of a protest targeting the WEF in Davos. Three people were arrested, one passerby was injured by fireworks and a policeman was hospitalized with unspecified injuries, Zurich police said after the demonstration broke up mid-evening.

Demonstrators protest against the WEF in Davos, Switzerland, January 22, 2020. The banner reads 'Fight the Climate Crisis! Zurich against the WEF.' REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann

For 25 years he had the ear of world leaders, CEOs and even rock stars at Davos, but the Swiss ski resort’s most-listened to man has moved on. Barry Colson, a 56-year-old piano player who lives in Halifax, Canada, led a nightly songfest for WEF attendees as the musician-in-residence at the upstairs bar of the Hotel Europe. Now, his gig is up. Colson said his contract was not renewed for 2020. Instead, he has opened up his own shop about 450 meters from the Hotel Europe, at a club sponsored by U.S. internet security company Cloudflare.

Barry Colson plays piano at his new bar in Davos, Switzerland, January 20, 2020. REUTERS/Jenna Zucker

Just when the Swiss mountain spat between U.S. President Donald Trump and Greta Thunberg seemed to have blown over, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin took a new dig at the young climate activist. Asked during a news conference about Thunberg’s call to divest from fossil fuels, Mnuchin said: “Is she the chief economist? ... After she goes and studies economics in college, she can come back and explain that to us.”

France and the U.S. agreed on how to press ahead with a global rewrite of cross-border tax rules for the digital era, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said. He said he and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had set aside a bilateral dispute over France’s digital tax on big tech companies to focus on securing a broader global deal this year that would include a minimal corporate tax rate.

Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido said that the government needed to halt the illegal flow of gold out of the country, and sanctions might be needed. “The first thing to do is to stop the illegal traffic of gold. We need to protect the indigenous population. It is blood gold,” Guaido said during an address to the WEF. “Maybe there is a need for sanctions,” he said in comments relayed through an interpreter, adding that Venezuela’s neighbor Colombia was already helping.
Guaido said that other regional powers and the U.S. should also help.

Impeachment

Rep. Adam Schiff speaks next to Rep. Jerry Nadler during a news conference to discuss the Senate impeachment trial of Trump in Washington, D.C., January 22, 2020. REUTERS/Mary F. Calvert

Democrats accused President Trump at his impeachment trial of a corrupt scheme to pressure Ukraine to help him get re-elected and warned that America’s global prestige would suffer if the U.S. Senate acquits him. The Republican Trump, who has denied wrongdoing, sounded a defiant note, telling reporters in Switzerland the Democrats did not have enough evidence to find him guilty and remove him from office.

Digital detox: Some members of the U.S. Senate hearing Trump’s impeachment trial, a proceeding following decades-old precedent, said they welcomed at least one of the chamber’s anachronistic rules: a ban on cellphones.

A bipartisan majority of Americans want to see new witnesses testify in the impeachment trial, and the public appears to be largely following the proceedings even after a bruising congressional inquiry that lasted several months, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling.

WORLD

China locks down two cities at epicenter of virus outbreak

China put on lockdown two cities at the epicenter of a new coronavirus outbreak that has killed 17 people and infected nearly 600, as authorities around the world scramble to prevent a pandemic.

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World Court orders Myanmar to protect Rohingya from acts of genocide

The International Court of Justice ordered Myanmar to take urgent measures to protect its Rohingya population from atrocities, a ruling hailed as a "triumph of international justice" by the tiny African country that brought the case.

4 min read

World leaders gather in Jerusalem for Auschwitz liberation anniversary

Dozens of world leaders gathered in Jerusalem to mark the 75th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz, amid a backdrop of rising anti-Semitism in Europe and the United States.

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Top Stories on Reuters TV

Democrats accuse Trump of corrupt scheme at trial

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من ديوان

Posted: 23 Jan 2020 05:21 AM PST

 
مركز الأبحاث العالمي
 
 
ديوان - مركز كارنيغي للشرق الأوسط - مؤسسة كارنيغي للسلام الدولي
Jan 23, 2020
 
ماذا يعني أن تفعّل الدول الأوروبية آلية فضّ النزاع في الاتفاق النووي مع إيران؟
01 23 2020 | مايكل يونغ
مطالعة دورية لخبراء حول قضايا تتعلق بسياسات الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا ومسائل الأمن.
اضغط هنا لمتابعة القراءة
المزيد
 
01 16 2020 | مايكل يونغ
داخل الدوامة الليبية
01 16 2020 | مايكل يونغ
كيف يمكن أن يؤثّر مصرع قاسم سليماني في مسار الأحداث بحسب مجال اختصاصك خلال العام الجاري؟
01 15 2020 | سارة يركيس
الحكومة التونسية فشلت بنيل ثقة البرلمان
01 13 2020 | بدر السيف
وفاة سلطان عُمان، قابوس بن سعيد آل سعيد
01 03 2020 | مايكل يونغ
الولايات المتحدة قتلت قاسم سليماني، قائد فيلق القدس
Carnegie
من نحن اتصلوا بنا تحديث المعلومات إلغاء
 
 
 
kamal.sahim5.news@blogger.com إشترك لتلقي الاعلانات والدعوات من مركز كارنيغي للشرق الأوسط.

© 2020 مؤسسة كارنيغي للسلام الدولي جميع الحقوق محفوظة.
 

SOS, it's an SMS from MBS

Posted: 23 Jan 2020 05:08 AM PST

China quarantines a whole city, Republicans say there's nothing new, Jeff Bezos' phone hacked

Journal numérique - Vendredi 24 janvier 2020

Posted: 23 Jan 2020 03:35 AM PST

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World Alert: China expands travel restrictions to two more cities as virus outbreak continues to spread

Posted: 23 Jan 2020 03:11 AM PST

Travelers in central China experienced major disruptions Thursday, before the start of the important Lunar New Year holiday, as authorities shut down rail and bus lines, canceled hundreds of flights and cut off highways to try to stop the spread of the pneumonialike coronavirus from Wuhan. The city of Huanggang, next to the epicenter of Wuhan, will be placed under a travel ban at midnight Thursday local time. The smaller, neighboring municipality of Ezhou has closed its train station to guard against transmission. The combined area is home to 20 million people.
 
Democracy Dies in Darkness
 
 
World Alert Jan 23, 6:11 AM
 
 
China expands travel restrictions to two more cities as virus outbreak continues to spread

Travelers in central China experienced major disruptions Thursday, before the start of the important Lunar New Year holiday, as authorities shut down rail and bus lines, canceled hundreds of flights and cut off highways to try to stop the spread of the pneumonialike coronavirus from Wuhan.
The city of Huanggang, next to the epicenter of Wuhan, will be placed under a travel ban at midnight Thursday local time. The smaller, neighboring municipality of Ezhou has closed its train station to guard against transmission. The combined area is home to 20 million people.

Read more »
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Back on the precipice

Posted: 23 Jan 2020 03:04 AM PST

Balance of Power
Balance of Power
From Bloomberg Politics
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Italy's rickety government faces the prospect of collapse yet again, with right-wing opposition politician Matteo Salvini ready to pounce.

Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte canceled his trip to the World Economic Forum in Davos today, with any hope of projecting a business-as-usual image in tatters.

The main party in his ruling alliance — the anti-establishment Five Star Movement — was rocked by Luigi Di Maio's resignation as its leader, while Salvini's League is poised to score big gains in a key regional election on Sunday.

As John Follain reports, Conte is holding urgent meetings in Rome before a cabinet gathering this evening, while Five Star girds itself for a bruising succession fight that could further destabilize the government.

Yet Conte has an ace up his sleeve: the government's very fragility. Its key members know that if they fail to hold the administration together, there will be snap elections they would surely lose.

Opinion polls say Salvini's League would win a national vote, signaling a sharp turn to the right that much of Europe, already dealing with the U.K.'s Brexit and trade tensions with the U.S., would rather not contemplate now.

Salvini is not assured of winning power — yet. He overreached in the summer when he broke up the last government only to be left out of the current one. And however much support his party enjoys, one politician is more popular than him: Giuseppe Conte.

Karl Maier

Photographer: Alessia Pierdomenico/Bloomberg
Global Headlines

Trying times | House impeachment managers set out their case for removing President Donald Trump from office in the Senate trial by depicting him as vindictive, untruthful, unbound by the law and willing to abuse his power at the expense of U.S. national security. They will resume arguments today, seeking to persuade moderate Republicans that they should subpoena witnesses such as former National Security Adviser John Bolton.

  • Senators acting as jurors can drink either milk or water while in the chamber during the trial — and nothing else.

Global flashpoint | The eastern Mediterranean is a strategic but fraught region at the confluence of Europe, the Middle East and Africa. The delicate balance of power is being upset by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's claims on rights over lucrative hydrocarbons following a contentious maritime deal struck with Libya. The jostling is evidence of a vacuum opening up as a result of U.S. disengagement, with Turkey and Russia attempting to take its place.

Moving on | Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Brexit deal cleared its final hurdles in parliament for the U.K. to leave the European Union on Jan. 31, ending a crisis that paralyzed politics for several years. Britain remains bound by EU law in 2020 while it negotiates a new trade deal with Europe. That's the "first priority," Chancellor of the Exchequer Sajid Javid told U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin yesterday. "I thought we'd go first," said a "disappointed" Mnuchin.

Damage done | The claim that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was involved in hacking Amazon boss Jeff Bezos's phone refocuses attention on the young leader as he seeks a more positive global spotlight. Sylvia Westall and Donna Abu-Nasr report on potential damage to Saudi Arabia's image as it prepares to host dozens of events showcasing the prince's efforts to transform the kingdom's economy and lure billions in foreign investment.

China and Greta | China is conducting a "war against pollution," with some positive results. But unlike the rest of the world, where activism as exemplified by Greta Thunberg is a key driver of the environmental agenda, China frowns upon actions not involving the state. The result is a paradox: President Xi Jinping champions the anti-pollution cause, but restrictions on civil society leave little room for open criticism of government policy.

What to Watch

  • Trump will become the first sitting U.S. president tomorrow to address the anti-abortion March for Life in person as he courts conservative voters before the November elections.
  • While Angela Merkel has little time to reset Germany's economy before her term ends, she appears more focused on challenges on Europe's doorstep such as Libya and Iran, subjects she'll probably emphasize when she speaks in Davos today.
  • Chinese officials moved to halt travel from Wuhan, essentially locking down a city of 11 million people, as they try to stop the spread of a new SARS-like virus that's already killed 17 and infected hundreds.
  • The International Court of Justice ordered Myanmar to take emergency measures to prevent genocide against its minority Muslim Rohingya population.

Tell us how we're doing or what we're missing at balancepower@bloomberg.net. And sign up for Bloomberg Green, our new daily digest of climate news and insights on the latest in science, environmental impacts, zero-emission tech and green finance.

And finally … Thailand's ubiquitous street food vendors are wondering how they will cope with a new law that bans single-use plastic bags. While customers love buying cheap snacks and hot soup, Thailand generates more than 5,000 metric tons of plastic trash each day and some ends up spoiling its beautiful beaches. Authorities are clamping down on bags first, plastic straws by 2022 and aim to recycle all remaining plastic packaging by 2027.

Take away order of soup is packed in a plastic bag at a street stall in Bangkok. Photographer: Nicolas Axelrod/Bloomberg Economics

 
 

News Alert: Top U.N. court orders Myanmar to halt violence and prevent genocide against Rohingya

Posted: 23 Jan 2020 02:02 AM PST

These provisional measures from the Hague-based International Court of Justice was a win for efforts to protect the group against genocide that international observers say is still underway.
 
Democracy Dies in Darkness
 
 
News Alert Jan 23, 5:01 AM
 
 
Top U.N. court orders Myanmar to halt violence and prevent genocide against Rohingya

These provisional measures from the Hague-based International Court of Justice was a win for efforts to protect the group against genocide that international observers say is still underway.

Read more »
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الموقع الإلكتروني لجريدة المنتخب

Posted: 22 Jan 2020 10:49 PM PST

الموقع الإلكتروني لجريدة المنتخب

Link to موقع جريدة المنتخب

تقرؤون في «المنتخب» الورقية لعدد يوم الخميس

Posted: 22 Jan 2020 01:15 PM PST

يحرص الرجاء البيضاوي وهو يحلق إلى ملعب رادس

انجلترا تنادي الادريسي .. وأزيد يرفع الكوطة

Posted: 22 Jan 2020 01:11 PM PST

ازدادت وثيرة الطلبات الانجليزية حول نجوم

أجاكس يحدد مدة غياب زياش عن الملاعب

Posted: 22 Jan 2020 05:50 AM PST

أعلن مدرب أجاكس إريك تين هاغ عن خبر حرين

بنعطية مهدد بالعقاب في قطر

Posted: 22 Jan 2020 04:22 AM PST

ينتظر المهدي بنعطية وزميله السابق في

وليد الركراكي يرحل عن الفتح وهذه وجهته

Posted: 22 Jan 2020 02:35 AM PST

توصل الإطار التقني الوطني وليد الركراكي

هذه قيمة صفقة إنتقال أزارو إلى الإتفاق السعودي

Posted: 22 Jan 2020 02:19 AM PST

إنتقل رسميا المهاجم وليد أزارو إلى الإتفاق

عبد الحميد تحت ردار زوبيزاريطا

Posted: 22 Jan 2020 01:45 AM PST

يضع المدير الرياضي لمارسيليا

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