US-CHINA TRADE The US needs Chinese quantum communications and the hack-proof technology it provides. China, whose population consumes 50% of the world's pork, needs American meat. So, with the hawkish John Bolton gone from the White House, can the trading begin? President Trump needs a trade deal with China as quickly as possible, writes Spengler, to avert a sharp slowdown of the US economy. But there won't be any deal, he argues, unless the US finds some way to walk back its efforts to keep China's top telecommunication firm Huawei out of world markets. But the dismissal of US National Security Adviser John Bolton significantly increases the prospects of a deal. Spengler wrote an Asia Times exclusive in July about how America's intelligence community hijacked the Trump Administration's trade agenda and turned it into a global campaign against Huawei. The US spies, he argued, concocted a story about Huawei's plans to steal the world's data through control of 5G broadband in order to cover Washington's humiliating failure to predict the importance of quantum communications. Quantum technology, says Spengler, is a hack-proof technology pioneered by the Chinese — that is 'the most important new development in telecommunications since Marconi invented the wireless' — and because it is likely to be embedded in the new fifth-generation mobile communication networks, it will drastically curtail the eavesdropping capabilities of America's spy agencies. Spengler now writes that Huawei has just called the American intelligence community's bluff. Huawei founder, Ren Zhengfei, has offered to license his company's technology to the West and also allow Western companies to take it apart, re-write the source code, and otherwise purge it of any possible trace of Chinese hacking. 'China never planned to steal everyone else's data,' writes Spengler. 'On the contrary, China offered technology that would stop the United States from stealing everyone else's data, a critical setback to a US intelligence community that spends most of its $80 billion annual budget on signals intelligence.' Spengler says it is no coincidence that Ren Zhengfei's offer was made on the same day that Bolton was fired. The famously hawkish Bolton may have many admirers across the Indo-Pacific region – and especially so in Taiwan, as Kent Wang explains – but he has tried hard to block negotiations with the Taliban, North Korea or Iran and, crucially to the trade war, he consistently urged a tough line against Beijing. Indeed, all of the presidential orders targeting Huawei were drafted by Bolton's staff at the National Security Council offices. But the world wants a deal. In the past six months, the fallout out from the tensions bouncing between Washington and Beijing has slashed global growth, and, as Gordon Watts writes here, the specter of recession is starting to loom large over all major economies. China seems ready to trade, with Beijing seemingly ready to use 'pork-chop diplomacy' to end the trade war with the United States. In 2018, Chinese people ate about half the world's production of pork and, writes Jimmy Yang, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced this week that it was 'making inquiries' about buying American farm products ahead of high-level talks in Washington next month. This is because pork prices in China surged by almost 50% last month on the back of an African swine fever epidemic that has seen millions of Chinese pigs slaughtered or left dead from the outbreak. And Washington seems ready to talk too. Beijing's pork announcement came a day after the US said it would delay a planned $250 billion hike in tariffs on Chinese imports. But President Trump may have to also offer real compromise to China on technology, if he wants to avoid not just recession, but also defeat in the 2020 elections. Read the full stories on Asia Times Huawei calls the US intel community's bluff by Spengler Bolton's exit raises odds of US-China trade deal by Spengler The Bolton ouster: the view from Taiwan by Kent Wang Why Bolton was fired by Stephen Bryen US-China tech war and the US intelligence community by Spengler Brazil gaining from China's revenge embargoes by Jonathan Manthorpe China uses pork-chop diplomacy to end trade war by Jimmy Yee Trade war horror show grips China and the US by Gordon Watts
| 
No comments:
Post a Comment