Monday, March 25, 2024

Beyond the Back Page: Numbers worth knowing

There are hints — or maybe mirages — around Mets camp after four weeks of spring training games.
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by Mark W. Sanchez

As the spring training season winds down, a question: Did any of that really mean anything? Today, we looked at five Mets Grapefruit League stats that might be telling about the fortunes of this season. Plus, the Yankees have a fifth starter and the baseball world will finally have some Shohei Ohtani answers.

What hints did the Mets give us this spring about how the season ahead could play out?

Spring training does not tell us much, but it can provide hints. The star of the Mets' Grapefruit League season last year was DJ Stewart, who was not an anomaly and proceeded to break out in August and September.

Or it can mislead. Just ask 2022 Kyle Higashioka and his seven homers in 11 spring games for the Yankees.

There are hints — or maybe mirages — around Mets camp after four weeks of spring training games. With just one exhibition left before the season begins Thursday at Citi Field against the Brewers, the Mets have seen enough to narrow down a roster that won't include Mark Vientos or Ji Man Choi and will include utilityman Zack Short.

And the Mets probably have seen enough to be worried or excited about various important members of the roster. We took a look at five stats that stand out from the Grapefruit League season — numbers that could be meaningless or might end up mattering in a spring season that largely doesn't.

Starling Marte's batting average: .167

New York Mets' Starling Marte flies out in the first inning against the St. Louis Cardinals during Spring Training at Clover Park, Wednesday, Feb. 28, 2024, in Port St. Lucie, FL.
Starling Marte struggled this spring at the plate after missing much of last season with a series of injuries.
Corey Sipkin for the NY Post

For the spring trainings that led into his first 12 seasons, the outfielder could simply get his body ready for the season and not worry about his play. Ahead of his 13th season, though, Marte's spring requires more scrutiny.

Marte was slower, both with his feet and bat, and his all-around play suffered in a poor (.625 OPS) 2023. Perhaps he was robbed of his athleticism by offseason groin surgery, and repeated issues with his groin ended his season early. Perhaps he was robbed of his athleticism because he is now 35.

Marte hopes to prove that he was injured, not old, last season and can bounce back as both a standout right fielder and elite contact hitter. Maybe he can, but the Mets would have preferred a spring with more tangible hope: Marte is 7-for-42 with eight strikeouts and one extra-base hit (a double).

The Mets know they cannot count on Marte morphing into the All-Star he was in 2022, but can they count on Marte to at least be a league-average hitter? An early sign that the Mets' hopes are not sky-high: Manager Carlos Mendoza said newly signed J.D. Martinez likely will bat cleanup, providing protection for No. 3 hitter Pete Alonso. Brandon Nimmo likely will be the leadoff hitter and Francisco Lindor No. 2. All of which adds up to Marte — who batted second for much of '22 — being at best a middle-of-the-order bat and possibly lower.

Luis Severino's ERA: 1.29.

New York Mets starting pitcher Luis Severino throws in the first inning against the St. Louis Cardinals during Spring Training at the Roger Dean Stadium, Friday, March 1, 2024, in Jupiter, FL.
Luis Severino has not looked anything like the player who once deemed himself the "worst pitcher in the game."
Corey Sipkin for the NY Post

Last spring, the then-Yankees righty got knocked around for 15 runs in 15 innings (9.00 ERA), which led into a nightmare season. Severino, a two-time All-Star and twice in the Cy Young conversation, finished with a 6.65 ERA that was the seventh-worst in all of MLB among pitchers who logged at least 80 innings. After one dud in Baltimore, Severino said he felt "like I am the worst pitcher in the game."

If nothing else, this spring across town (or across the state of Florida, playing in Port St. Lucie with the Mets rather than in Tampa with the Yankees) has been far more positive. Severino was excellent again Sunday and has finished his Grapefruit League season with two runs allowed in 14 innings, to go along with nine hits, one walk and 12 strikeouts.

The Mets guaranteed the righty $13 million because they believed in his upside, and the upside has been obvious early. Severino's fastball has had more life, and he has played with a slider that he is throwing harder (with a bit less movement) than last season's slider.

The regular season will be the actual test, but the early signs have been positive.

Francisco Alvarez's caught-stealing rate: 50 percent

New York Mets Francisco Alvarez walks in the infield before a game against the St. Louis Cardinals during Spring Training at Clover Park, Wednesday, Feb. 28, 2024, in Port St. Lucie, FL.
Francisco Alvarez has been tough to run on this spring.
Corey Sipkin for the NY Post

For context, the best catcher in baseball last season at limiting base-stealers was Arizona's Gabriel Moreno at 39 percent. Alvarez, meanwhile, threw out 13 percent of attempted base-stealers last year. Has he fixed his lone defensive flaw?

Alvarez's goal entering this spring was to improve at cutting down opposing running games, tweaking his footwork in the process. Last season, he would remain on one knee — a stance that lends itself to pitch-framing — and then rise and fire. This year, when Alvarez sees a runner take off, he gets off his knee and squats on the balls of his feet, which allows for a more consistent and quicker release.

The results have followed, Alvarez is 8-of-16 in throwing runners out, and an excellent and young catcher appears to have added a new dimension to his game. Will Alvarez be seeing the same kind of success once the season begins? After 100 games? In the heat of the summer?

Shintaro Fujinami's walks per nine innings: 9.83

New York Mets Shintaro Fujinami throws in the bullpen at Spring Training, Tuesday, Feb. 20, 2024, in Port St. Lucie, FL.
Shintaro Fujinami's inability to consistently throw strikes in Florida prompted the Mets to send him to Syracuse to start the season.
Corey Sipkin for the NY Post

The Mets believed enough in the fireballing righty to commit $3.35 million to a pitcher who consistently couldn't find the strike zone last year and finished with a 7.18 ERA.

The March signs show that Fujinami is still a work in progress.

In 3 ⅔ innings in the Grapefruit League, the 29-year-old from Japan has allowed four walks, hit a batter and thrown five wild pitches, showing the same lack of control that forced the A's to give up on him and the Orioles to keep him off their playoff roster.

Fujinami, though, has struck out five and displayed the same 100-mph heat and devastating splitter that would make him a dominant eighth-inning option should he ever learn to throw consistent strikes.

Fujinami was optioned Saturday and will begin the season with Triple-A Syracuse, where he will loom as a potential game-changer if the command ever matches the stuff.

Mark Vientos' at-bats: 56

New York Mets third baseman Mark Vientos reaches on an error in the fourth inning against the St. Louis Cardinals during Spring Training at Clover Park, Saturday, Feb. 24, 2024, in Port St. Lucie, Fl
Mark Vientos showed intriguing power in spring training but also a susceptibility to striking out.
Corey Sipkin for the NY Post

The number is less significant than the context: Vientos led the club in spring at-bats.

Giving Vientos — who had been competing for both a DH job and third base job before he was optioned to Syracuse on Sunday — a long run to prove himself makes sense. The Mets need to see more from Vientos than, say, Harrison Bader, who has just had 29 at-bats.

Vientos' results were mixed, displaying power that should intrigue the Mets (five home runs) but with 19 strikeouts, just two walks and a .232 average. He failed to win a spot on the Opening Day roster, but he surely will be called up at some point this season.

And at some point, the Mets might have to make a decision about giving at-bats to veterans (like new DH J.D. Martinez) or prospects like Vientos. If the Mets fall out of the playoff race, will Vientos again begin receiving the lion's share of opportunities?

Today's back page

New York Post

A fair fight

The biggest news from the Yankees this weekend came from Mexico, where manager Aaron Boone said Luis Gil will open the season as the club's fifth starter.

Gil, a 25-year-old in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, was the most dominant pitcher at Yankees camp. He struck out 18 in 11 ⅔ innings, allowing two runs (2.31 ERA) while letting up just five hits.

New York Yankees pitcher Luis Gil throws in the fifth inning of a spring training baseball game against the Tampa Bay Rays Wednesday, March 6, 2024, in Tampa, Fla.
Thanks to a dominant performance in camp, Luis Gil won a spot in the Yankees rotation that opened when Gerrit Cole was injured.
AP

The move shows the Yankees looked at the spot vacated by Gerrit Cole like an actual competition: The pitcher who pitched best won, regardless of roster status or long-term concerns.

There are long-term concerns with Gil, who might not be on a strict innings limit but surely won't log 200 innings after totaling four minor league innings last season.

If the Yankees wanted a pitcher who has performed, is better positioned to survive the entire season and is on the 40-man roster, they could have turned to Clayton Beeter. Alternatively, a move could have been made to add Will Warren to the roster, another righty who has been strong and will require no training wheels.

But Gil pitched the best, and so Gil will be the fifth starter.

Talk isn't cheap

The sports world finally will hear from Shohei Ohtani.

Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani waves from first base during the second inning of a spring training baseball game in Los Angeles, Sunday, March 24, 2024.
Shohei Ohtani is scheduled to speak with reporters on Monday about his former interpreter's alleged sports gambling.
AP

The Dodgers star told reporters that he would answer questions Monday, the first step toward the public learning the truth behind a reported $4.5 million leaving his bank account and going to a California bookmaker.

Ohtani has not publicly spoken since news broke Wednesday, which immediately prompted the Dodgers to fire his interpreter and friend, Ippei Mizuhara. Ohtani's and Mizuhara's roles are unclear, partly because the story has changed several times.

First, a spokesman for Ohtani told ESPN that Ohtani was covering for a gambling debt accrued by Mizuhara. ESPN then spoke to Mizuhara and was preparing to publish a story when the spokesman disavowed Mizuhara's account, and Ohtani's lawyers said Ohtani has been the "victim of a massive theft."

Not much else is concretely known about a scandal that the IRS and Major League Baseball are investigating.

This picture taken on March 16, 2024 shows Los Angeles Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani (R) and his interpreter Ippei Mizuhara (L) attending a press conference at Gocheok Sky Dome in Seoul ahead of the 2024 MLB Seoul Series baseball game between Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres.
Ippei Mizuhara worked alongside Shohei Ohtani for years before being fired last week in the wake of reports he had gotten millions of dollars into debt to an illegal bookmaker.
Getty Images

Did Ohtani bet on sports, illegal in California? Did Ohtani bet on baseball, a sin that would harm the integrity of the game? Did Ohtani know about Mizuhara's illegally begotten debt and attempt to help him? Did Ohtani know nothing, an innocent victim from whom Mizuhara stole?

We will start to learn those answers Monday in what will be an enormous day for both the two-way superstar and the sport that needs him.

What we're reading 👀

🏀 A week ago, we bemoaned the lack of respect the Big East got in receiving only three bids to the NCAA Tournament. Now, with the Sweet 16 field is set, the conference's three entrants have yet to lose, a message the conference hopes the NCAA hears loud and clear, Zach Braziller writes.

🏀 Speaking of the Big East, UConn left little doubt in Steve Serby's mind that it's the best team in the country after cruising through its first two games of the Tournament.

⚾ The Yankees open the season with seven games in seven days, which is sure to require a lot of long relief help from the bullpen. Figuring out who fits in those roles hasn't been easy, writes Joel Sherman.

🏒 All of the good feelings the Islanders experienced with their win over Winnipeg Saturday were wiped away in a 4-0 loss to the Devils on Sunday, a game that saw Anders Lee ejected and possibly headed for a suspension.

🏈 Robert Saleh spoke to NFL Network this weekend about the Jets' many offseason additions, and from the sound of things, "he is fully embracing the do-over that many NFL head coaches never get," writes Ryan Dunleavy.

⚽ The US men's national soccer team is on a roll, at least when it comes to winning the CONCACAF Nations League title, which it did for the third straight time thanks to a 2-0 win over Mexico Sunday night.

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