Wednesday, March 13, 2024

Beyond the Back Page: NFL's march to April

Positional value is the new name of the game for the Giants. For the Jets, it's all about the O-line.
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by Ryan Dunleavy

The first few days of NFL free agency are a great place to spot clues as to draft strategy.

In today's newsletter, we look at what the free-agency moves by the Giants, Jets and teams picking around them revealed. Also, the Knicks get close to whole in impressive fashion, the Yankees could fall in a Gerrit Cole-sized hole and where did that Saquon Barkley-Tiki Barber feud come from?

What the early free-agent moves say about the Giants' and Jets' draft plans

Don't be fooled into thinking that all NFL general managers have a decipherable plan.

As Dave Gettleman showed by taking one step right, two steps left, one step forward and three steps back during his disastrous four-year tenure with the Giants, one move does not always foreshadow another.

But if you want to give Giants general manager Joe Schoen and Jets counterpart Joe Douglas the benefit of the doubt, then one of the fun games to play during this week of free-agency movement is reading the tea leaves on how every addition made in the first phase of the offseason affects thinking entering the NFL Draft. Or, rather, how expectations for the NFL Draft affect the decisions made now.

Here is our analysis of what the first two days of league-wide free agency suggest about what could be ahead for the Jets and Giants in the draft:

Giants

1. Positional value is the new name of the game for the Giants.

Brian Burns #0 of the Carolina Panthers readies for the play during the second half of the game against the Green Bay Packers at Bank of America Stadium on December 24, 2023 in Charlotte, North Carolina.
The Giants redirected much of what they likely would have had to pay Saquon Barkley and Xavier McKinney into a deal for edge rusher Brian Burns.
Getty Images

Believers in this team-building theory weigh offensive line, edge rusher, cornerback and receivers significantly more than running back, inside linebacker and safety.

Schoen traded for and signed edge rusher Brian Burns to a five-year, $141 million extension, essentially redirecting the average annual cost of running back Saquon Barkley's $12.5 million per year contract (Eagles) and Xavier McKinney's $17 million per year contract (Packers). He also signed guard Jon Runyan Jr. and tackle Jermaine Eluemunor to be offensive line starters.

It fits with Schoen's use of draft picks so far. He has used his eight-highest draft picks on — and given five of his six free-agent contracts with the biggest guarantees to — players at high-value positions (including quarterback), with the lone exception being every-snap middle linebacker Bobby Okereke.

It's a fortuitous draft year for the Giants, given two positions of strength are thought to be receiver and cornerback — both unaddressed so far.

2. Are the Giants going to draft a quarterback at No. 6 or higher?

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Drew Lock (2) warms up before an NFL football game against the Arizona Cardinals, Sunday, Jan. 8, 2024, in Glendale, Ariz.
The addition of veteran Drew Lock to the quarterback room likely means the Giants won't be targeting one of the top QBs in this year's draft.
AP

The three latest indications — signing Drew Lock to a one-year, $5 million contract as insurance against Daniel Jones' injury history, trading a second-round pick for Burns and letting go of Barkley and McKinney — suggest no.

I went to the NFL Combine thinking, based on conversations with sources around the league, the Giants would draft a receiver at No. 6 and a quarterback with their second pick — be it in the second round or via a trade up.

I left the NFL Combine rumor mill thinking quarterback — even if it was the fourth one taken — was very much in play for their top pick.

Not tagging Barkley or McKinney — two of the team's five best players — with one-year contracts last week signaled a rebuild getting underway. Trading for Burns — and ruining the perfect package of three second-round picks over the next two years needed to trade up from No. 6 into the top three picks — injected some win-now pressure back in the mix.

LSU Tigers wide receiver Malik Nabers (8) catches a pass during a game between the Texas A&M Aggies and the LSU Tigers in Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana on November 25, 2023.
LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers could fit a Giants offense that needs playmakers.
Getty Images

Signing Lock and then adding a high-first round quarterback means the inactive third-stringer on game days either will be a $5 million per year veteran or a top-six draft pick.

Neither circumstance is ideal, and would leave cult phenom Tommy DeVito as a practice-squad fourth-stringer — if he survived the waiver wire.

Though the Giants will want to sell that Lock's addition has nothing to do with their draft plan, let's tentatively pencil in one of the three elite receivers — Ohio State's Marvin Harrison Jr., LSU's Malik Nabers or Washington's Rome Odunze — atop their draft.

3. If the Giants are quarterback-hunting, Kirk Cousins' contract changed the biggest threat of a team to trade up in front of No. 6.

What previously was the Falcons (No. 8) is now the Vikings (No. 11), Broncos (No. 12) or Raiders (No. 13).

Consider that a break for the Giants because the price is steeper — sure to include a future first-round pick — for those teams to make the bigger climb than it would have been for the Falcons to package multiple second-rounders.

General manager Kwesi Adolfo-Mensah of the Minnesota Vikings speaks to the media during the NFL Combine at the Indiana Convention Center on February 27, 2024 in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Having lost Kirk Cousins to the Falcons, Vikings GM Kwesi Adolfo-Mensah might look to maneuver the team into position to draft a quarterback higher than their current No. 11 slot.
Getty Images

If the Patriots trading Mac Jones signaled No. 3 will be used for a quarterback — anyone who thought Jones' presence would deter a quarterback pick was naïve — maybe the Commanders are open to a trade and not locked into taking a quarterback at No. 2 if their top prospect is unavailable. They signed Marcus Mariota to a one-year deal reportedly with an upside of $10 million to join returning starter Sam Howell.

Jets

1. The offensive tackle fix is in.

If you thought the Jets' intentions to draft a first-round offensive tackle were telegraphed last year — when they actually pivoted to pass-rusher Will McDonald after four offensive tackles were selected — general manager Joe Douglas might as well be holding up a sign this year.

Carter Warren and Max Mitchell — fourth-round picks from the past two drafts — would be the starters if the Jets played today because Mekhi Becton, Duane Brown and Billy Turner are free agents who are deemed unlikely to return.

The first offensive line move was to sign left guard John Simpson to replace the released Laken Tomlinson. Even if they add one offensive tackle in free agency, there should be one starting job open. At least two of Penn State's Olu Fashanu, Oregon State's Taliese Fuaga and Alabama's JC Latham are expected to be available at pick No. 10.

Penn State Nittany Lions offensive lineman Olumuyiwa Fashanu (74) blocks during a college football game against the Michigan Wolverines on November 11, 2023 at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania.
Jets GM Joe Douglas appears intent on using the Jets' first-round pick on an offensive lineman such as Penn State's Olu Fashanu.
Getty Images

2. The lack of action in the receiver market suggests many teams will be waiting for the draft to address pass-catching needs.

Through two days of free agency, there were only two wide receiver deals worth more than $4.25 million annually, including a consensus overpay of Darnell Mooney (three years, $39 million) by the Falcons. A third contract — and probably the biggest — will go to Calvin Ridley, reportedly from either the Patriots or Jaguars.

Not good for the Jets.

With no second-round pick because of the Aaron Rodgers trade, the Jets could have a torturous wait from No. 10 until No. 72 to address receiver as some analysts say as many as 12-15 receivers have top-two-round grades.

Is the No. 16 receiver going to supplant Allen Lazard and complement Garrett Wilson as a day-one No. 2 receiver? Only if the Jets find the next Puka Nacua.

New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson #17 and New York Jets wide receiver Allen Lazard #10 react on the sideline during the fourth quarter. The New England Patriots defeat the New York Jets 15-10.
Without a second-round pick, the Jets may have to get creative in the draft to find some receiving help for Garrett Wilson better than Allen Lazard.
Charles Wenzelberg/New York Post

Douglas might have to explore trade-up options. Packaging No. 72 with the Jets' higher of two picks in both the fourth and sixth rounds (no fifth-rounder) should be able to get them into the mid-50s if there is a receiver slipping lower than he should in their eyes.

3. Tyrod Taylor, one of the NFL's best backup quarterbacks, signed a two-year contract to back up Aaron Rodgers.

That means any draft pick is going to be buried as the third-stringer — getting close to zero non-scout team reps all regular season — for two years.

Even with one of the NFL's oldest quarterback rooms — Rodgers (40) and Taylor (35 in August) — the Jets would be foolish to burn even a mid-round pick on a quarterback, especially given that Douglas and head coach Robert Saleh are on the hot seat and might never see the player develop.

Tyrod Taylor #2 of the New York Giants throws a pass during the first half at MetLife Stadium, Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023, in East Rutherford, New Jersey.
Tyrod Taylor's new work address on Sundays this fall won't be any different than it was last season.
Corey Sipkin for the NY Post

Find immediate contributors, even special-teamers.

Taylor has a long history as a sounding board for young quarterbacks — Baker Mayfield, Justin Herbert, Davis Mills and Daniel Jones — so maybe the Jets look for some repeat Mr. Irrelevant Magic and their own Brock Purdy.

Today's back pages

The back cover of the New York Post for early editions on March 13, 2024
The back page for March 13's early editions featured the Yankees' injury worries.

The back cover of the New York Post on March 13, 2024.
The back page for late editions led with OG Anunoby's slam-dunk return to the Knicks lineup.

Knicks up, not nicked up

The Knicks are one step closer to being whole.

OG Anunoby (elbow surgery) returned Tuesday against the 76ers, just in time for a possible playoff preview. He contributed 14 points (on 6-of-11 shooting) and four rebounds to help pace the Knicks to a breezy 106-79 win.

The Knicks outscored the Sixers by 28 points in Anunoby's 29 minutes. "Everybody on the floor benefitted," as The Post's Stefan Bondy wrote.

At the other forward spot, Josh Hart put up 20 points, 19 rebounds and 10 assists for his fourth triple-double of the season.

The Knicks were 8-10 without Anunoby after a remarkable 12-2 start to his tenure. Anunoby was acquired in a trade with the Raptors on Dec. 30, and was averaging 15.6 points and 4.6 rebounds per game while shooting 39.1 percent from 3-point range and providing a defensive boost before he went down.

New York Knicks forward OG Anunoby #8 recovers a loose ball during the first quarter.
OG Anunoby and the Knicks picked up where they left off, winning for the 13th time in 15 games with Anunoby in the lineup Tuesday night against the 76ers.
Charles Wenzelberg/New York Post

Are the Knicks going to win 85.7 percent of their games again now that Anunoby is back? No, especially because Julius Randle, who was an equally big part of that hot streak, still is sidelined due to a right shoulder injury.

Just as importantly, however, the Knicks should not endure another prolonged slump of winning just 44.4 percent of their games, as they did without both Anunoby and Randle, neither of whom had played since Jan. 27.

And an above-.500 finish to the final 17 games could be the key to avoiding the unwelcomed fate of the play-in tournament.

The Knicks (38-27) now hold the fourth-best record in the Eastern Conference and a two-game lead over the dreaded No. 7 seed.

(Not-so) best-case scenario

On the scale of exhale to catastrophic, the first official update after Yankees ace Gerrit Cole went for an MRI on his elbow fell somewhere in between the extremes.

New York Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole #45, walking on a back field after throwing live batting practice before the game.
While Gerrit Cole's long-term prognosis is unknown, the Yankees did acknowledge their ace would not be available for Opening Day.
Charles Wenzelberg/New York Post

He won't be ready for Opening Day. But no one has yet said what the MRI revealed or whether Cole needs season-ending Tommy John surgery, which always is the instant fear with an elbow MRI, or any other intervention.

"I'm hoping for the best news — even if it's him being out a couple of weeks," Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters in Florida on Tuesday. "Whatever it is, I'll take that over anything more."

What would it mean if Cole missed just a couple of weeks? Possibly starting the season in a hole from which it would take a long time to re-emerge.

(Keep in mind: Aaron Judge also cast some doubt Tuesday on his availability for Opening Day.)

The Yankees' first seven series are against the Astros, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Marlins, Guardians, Blue Jays again and Rays. Only the Guardians missed last season's playoffs among that six-team group.

Thirteen of the first 22 games are on the road.

New York Yankees manager Aaron Boone walks on the field before a spring training baseball game against the Toronto Blue Jays Friday, March 1, 2024, in Tampa, Fla.
Aaron Boone and the Yankees face a tough opening month with matchups against 2023 playoff teams in six of their first seven series.
AP

Cole has started the past four Opening Days for the Yankees. In that same span, the Yankees' 22-game starts are, in reverse chronological order, 13-9, 16-6, 9-13 and 16-6.

In 2021, the Yankees needed 33 games to climb above .500 for good, by which time they were 3.5 games out of first place. They never spent a single day in sole possession of first place all that season on the way to a one-game playoff exit.

But Boone is right about this: Missing 22 games, give or take a few, is a lot better than 162.

Giants-on-Giants crime

If signing a three-year contract with the Eagles wasn't enough to turn Giants fans against him, Barkley bringing the heat at Giants great Tiki Barber should do the trick.

Barkley pulled no punches Monday on X when replying to Barber saying on his WFAN radio show that "you're dead to me" for switching sides in the rivalry.

Barkley called Barber "a hater" and questioned him as a teammate, harkening back to Barber's leaked in-season retirement in 2006 and then his infamous misunderstood mocking of Eli Manning's leadership in 2007.

New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley speaking to the media at the New York Giants training facility in East Rutherford, New Jersey.
Saquon Barkley made it clear on social media he didn't appreciate Tiki Barber's comments.
Charles Wenzelberg/New York Post

It seemed to come out of nowhere — there was no public hint of bad blood between the Giants' all-time leading rusher (Barber) and the player who was chasing the throne until Monday — but if I had to connect some dots, I'd guess it goes back to 2020.

Barber — when he was still co-hosting a show on CBS Sports Radio — was Barkley's loudest critic after one of the worst games of Barkley's career — 15 carries for six yards in a 2020 season-opening loss to the Steelers.

Barber called Barkley's pass-blocking a "liability" and said Barkley "might not be an every-down back."

One week later, Barkley tore his ACL against the Bears.

Something Barkley said before the 2021 season opener has stuck with me for many years.

"I do think the frustration of Week 1 led me just to go into Week 2 with a different mindset," he said. "That's something that I've talked personally with my family and teammates. Last time I played a game of football, I didn't play in the right place of heart. It wasn't out of love. It was kind of to show that, 'This is who I am,' and I would never allow that to happen again."

Saquon Barkley (R) hosts event for lucky Verizon Up Super Ticket recipients together with Tiki Barber at Bryant Park on December 18, 2019 in New York City.
Tiki Barber and Saquon Barkley attended numerous events together in New York despite their sometimes awkward media interactions.
Getty Images

It is common for players to feel most wounded by criticism from former players — likening it to a personal betrayal of the brotherhood — and a young Barkley saw Barber as a mentor and a friend. Barber later tried to clarify and say he meant his criticisms as a "challenge."

Barkley continued to speak highly of Barber whenever asked about Giants running backs of the past. Barber walked the line between criticizing and supporting Barkley in the media over the ensuing years, and the two were spotted together at events at times— but that always stuck with me as a possible turning point in the relationship.

And signing with the Eagles liberated Barkley to speak his mind.

What we're reading 👀

🏒 After rookie slugger Matt Rempe received a four-game NHL suspension, the Rangers went out and recorded a playoff-like 1-0 win over the second-place Hurricanes behind a brilliant Igor Shesterkin.

🏈 Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers is on Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s shortlist of preferred presidential running mates. So how's this going to work, he debates Kamala on his way to the Bills game?

⚾ There is mutual interest between the Mets and free-agent slugger J.D. Martinez, and Steve Cohen has given the green light.

⚾ Francisco Lindor tells The Post's Mike Puma what he's learned about the Mets so far this spring.

🏀 Your guide to the Big East tournament, which begins Wednesday with three games at the Garden.

🏀 Former Fordham head coach Tom Pecora is back in the game, The Post's Mike Vaccaro writes, and has Quinnipiac on the cusp of the Big Dance.

⛳ PGA Tour commissioner Jay Monahan says all is well in the splintered world of golf. The Post's Mark Cannizzaro isn't buying it.

⚾ Mookie Betts is one of a kind.

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