Tuesday, March 19, 2024

Beyond the Back Page: How to pick the bracket

The overwhelming consensus in men's college basketball this season has been that three teams (UConn, Houston, Purdue) have separated themselves from the field.
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by Howie Kussoy

Welcome back. In today's newsletter, we'll discuss the selection of the men's NCAA Tournament champion, baseball for breakfast and the Knicks' realistic path to their best-case scenario.

Our tips for filling out a bracket and picking a winner for men's March Madness

The overwhelming consensus in men's college basketball this season has been that three teams (UConn, Houston, Purdue) have separated themselves from the field.

That is reflected at sportsbooks, where the Huskies (+370), Cougars (+600) and Boilermakers (+700) are the only schools with single-digit odds to win the national championship.

I chose none of them to cut the final net, when filling out my bracket for Tuesday's paper.

UConn is unquestionably the best team in the country, but there are several reasons to fade the champs:

1. No team has won back-to-back titles in 17 years. Among the true threats to repeat were the previous two national champions (Baylor, Kansas), which returned as 1-seeds and fell in Round 2. So did Villanova, the No. 1 overall seed in 2017, and North Carolina, in 1994. Even more dominant top-ranked teams — such as UNLV in 1991, and Duke in 2002 — failed to reach the national title game.

Marquette guard Zaide Lowery (10) and forward Oso Ighodaro (13) guard UConn guard Stephon Castle (5) during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game in the championship of the Big East Conference tournament, Saturday, March 16, 2024, in New York
Stephon Castle helped UConn win its first Big East Tournament title since 2011, and it wasn't easy.
AP

2. Dan Hurley made it clear how important it was for UConn to win the Big East Tournament for the first time since returning to the league. But such energy isn't usually well-spent. Only four of the past 12 national champions also won their conference tournaments.

3. The nation's best team rarely proves it. None of the past nine national champions were the No. 1 overall seed.

4. Set your bracket apart. What's perceived to be the safest choice is rarely the best choice anyway. A bolder selection creates a greater margin for error in your pool. Traditionally, I target undervalued or overlooked contenders, such as 2019 Virginia (instead of Zion Williamson and Duke) and 2021 Baylor (instead of undefeated Gonzaga). Unfortunately, this strategy may also lead to big misses, such as 2022 Kentucky, which was eliminated in the first round by Saint Peter's (though I did have eventual champion Kansas in the title game).

I thought about Purdue, then quickly crossed off a team which in the past three tournaments has lost to a 16-seed, a 15-seed and a 13-seed.

I spent significant time considering Houston, but couldn't shake the memories of so many offensive struggles that always end up plaguing Kelvin Sampson's teams. This past weekend provided a flashback with a horrific 41-point showing in a blowout loss to Iowa State.

Houston head coach Kelvin Sampson talks to his players during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Iowa State in the championship of the Big 12 Conference tournament, Saturday, March 16, 2024, in Kansas City, Mo.
Kelvin Sampson and Houston aren't going into the NCAA Tournament on a high note after getting blown out in the Big 12 championship.
AP

The eventual champion almost certainly will be balanced. Virtually every tournament winner in the KenPom era (since 2002) has finished ranked with a top-25 offense and defense. The fluky Shabazz Napier-led run of UConn in 2014 is the lone exception.

Using that criterion, other title contenders outside the three favorites include Arizona, Auburn, Creighton, Marquette and North Carolina. Duke and Tennessee could soon join the list, too.

The Tar Heels are appealing, with an easy draw and the experience of the 2022 title game run. Auburn, the SEC Tournament champion, has been as dominant as any team this month. You could select any of those teams — and others, such as Kentucky, Iowa State or Baylor — and easily justify it or pick it apart.

Let's not pretend we know how this will end. Let's not forget what happens so many times — the upsets that draw us to the bracket in the first place, that allows Dan Hurley to advance past the first weekend of the tournament for the first time and win a national championship with a 4-seed at UConn.

So, with the greatest focus concentrated on the Huskies' repeat bid and the pressure on Purdue and whether Houston can finally break through, I landed on Tennessee.

Tenessee guard Dalton Knecht (3) dunks past Alabama forwards Jarin Stevenson (15) and Grant Nelson (2) during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game, Saturday, March 2, 2024, in Tuscaloosa, Ala.
After transferring to Tennessee, Dalton Knecht has gone on to become the top scorer in the SEC this season.
AP

Normally, I would never consider the Vols. Rick Barnes' shaky reputation in March is well-earned. But so was Jay Wright's, before he won two national titles. As was Tony Bennett's, who would still be a punchline if not for a series of miracles and missed calls during Virginia's 2019 title run. Scott Drew didn't make a Final Four in his first 17 years at Baylor, then won the national championship.

For all of his shortcomings, Barnes — ranked in the top 15 all-time in wins — has been to the Sweet 16 eight times, the Elite Eight three times and the Final Four once (2003). There have been some bad breaks since he arrived in Knoxville, such as in 2018, when a lucky bounce from Loyola-Chicago cut the season short, or in 2019, when a pair of controversial last-second calls kept the Vols from the Elite Eight.

This year can be different because Tennessee, a No. 2 seed, has the third-ranked defense in the nation as well as the second-best player in the country in Dalton Knecht, who led the SEC in scoring and leads an experienced team, which reached last year's Sweet 16 after knocking off Duke.

So, I'm taking Tennessee over Kentucky in the Final Four, before expecting the Vols to upset UConn — which I have defeating North Carolina in the other semifinal — in the title game.

A filled-out bracket for men's March Madness 2024

Do I feel good about it? No.

But it's March. You're not supposed to like your bracket.

Guides to the brackets:

Men's: Complete printable bracket | East region team capsules and analysis | Midwest region team capsules and analysis | South region team capsules and analysis | West region team capsules and analysis

Women's: Complete printable bracket | Region-by-region analysis

Today's back pages

The back cover for early editions of the New York Post on March 19, 2024
The back page for early editions focused on Jalen Brunson.

The back cover for later editions of the New York Post on March 19, 2024
The back page then featured the last news about OG Anunoby's elbow injury, pending the result of the Knicks game.

The back cover for final editions of the New York Post on March 19, 2024
The final back page showed Deuce McBride leading the Knicks over the Warriors.

Scoreboard watching

The Knicks again played without OG Anunoby (elbow injury management) in Monday night's 119-112 win at Golden State. Julius Randle's return date remains uncertain, as is that of Mitchell Robinson.

Yet, despite the worrisome Anunoby update and injuries that threaten a potentially special spring, the Knicks — who won their fourth straight game behind Miles McBride's career-high 29 points — remain in a strong position to achieve what would have felt like a best-case scenario at the start of the season.

Miles McBride wrestling Stephen Curry for the basketball during Knicks Warriors NBA game, March 18 2024 in San Francisco.
Miles McBride locks up Steph Curry during the Knicks' road win over the Warriors.
AP

After the win — and Cleveland's 108-103 win at Indiana — the Knicks (41-27) sit two games behind the Cavaliers (43-25) for the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference.

If the Knicks advance out of Round 1, it would allow them to avoid meeting the NBA-best Celtics (54-14) — who have won all four meetings this season — until the Eastern Conference Finals, likely setting up a less-daunting second-round matchup with the inconsistent, top-heavy Bucks.

The Cavs, also beset by injuries, have only seen star guard Donovan Mitchell (knee) play just two games this month. Former No. 3 overall pick Evan Mobley (ankle) hasn't played since March 5. Max Strus (knee) hasn't played since March 3.

The Cavaliers have lost six of their past 11 games and face a tougher stretch run, with nine of their final 14 games against teams over .500.

Houston Rockets' Jabari Smith Jr., left, knocks the ball away from Cleveland Cavaliers' Donovan Mitchell (45) during the second half of an NBA basketball game Saturday, March 16, 2024, in Houston. The Rockets won 117-103.
With Donovan Mitchell hampered by knee soreness, the Cavaliers have struggled to find any consistency since the All-Star break.
AP

The Knicks, who won two of three meetings against Cleveland this season, will play six of their final 14 games against winning teams.

Hollywood knockoffs?

By the time you open tomorrow's newsletter, the MLB season will be underway.

Before the sun rises in the United States on Wednesday morning — the same day that 12 spring training games will take place and eight days before the other 28 teams take the field for Opening Day — the Dodgers and Padres will officially open the 2024 regular season with the opener of a two-game series in South Korea.

It is appropriate that the Dodgers kick off the season, following an offseason in which they committed more than $1 billion to free agents and assembled the sport's most intriguing roster, further strengthening their position as baseball's unquestioned heavyweight.

Los Angeles Dodgers' designated hitter Shohei Ohtani holding a bat during an exhibition game in Seoul, South Korea.
With Shohei Ohtani, the Dodgers are now baseball's unquestioned heavyweight.
AP

Like the Yankees of the early 2000s, the Dodgers are willing — and able — to spend like few franchises can fathom.

The difference is their legacy is most similar to the 1990s Braves.

The Dodgers have made the playoffs for 11 straight years, but only own one title, earned during the COVID-shortened, largely ignored 2020 season. They have won at least 100 games in three straight seasons since then and haven't returned to the World Series. In the past two postseasons, they've won a total of one playoff game.

Still, they open this season as the favorite to win it all, raising expectations so high that manager Dave Roberts — whose .618 career win percentage is the highest in MLB history — may not survive a season that doesn't produce a championship.

It is because of the arrival of Shohei Ohtani — a third former MVP, joining Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman — who received an unprecedented $700 million contract, despite recovering from elbow surgery.

It is because that wasn't enough for the Dodgers, who were bold and desperate enough to give the largest contract ever for a pitcher ($325 million) to Japan's Yoshinobu Yamamoto and also acquire Tyler Glasnow, who received a $136.5 million extension, after the team's starters finished with MLB's 20th-best ERA (4.57) last season.

The star power has skewed the title odds, but hasn't sewn up the holes that may sink another season.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto of the Los Angeles Dodgers warms up prior to an exhibition baseball game in Seoul, South Korea.
Even with $325 million signing Yoshinobu Yamamoto atop the rotation, there are questions about the Dodgers' pitching.
Getty Images

Ohtani won't pitch until at least next season. Glasnow has never thrown more than 120 innings in a season. James Paxton has thrown less than 120 total innings in the past four years. Yamamoto has thrown zero innings in the majors. It is unclear when any of their rehabbing pitchers — Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Dustin May, Emmet Sheehan, Tony Gonsolin — will throw their first inning of the season.

It is unclear how Betts will handle the transition to shortstop or how Gavin Lux will handle a demotion to second base or how the roster will handle an outsized media presence and the pressure to win another 100-plus games, plus 11 more in October.

Until then, they cannot become the Evil Empire.

They are not Vader, but a child in a mask.

What we're reading 👀

⚾ Our long national wait for Blake Snell to sign is over. He won't be a Yankee. The Cy Young-winning lefty is going to the Giants on a two-year, $62 million deal.

⚾ Wait, there's more: The Yankees are now worried DJ LeMahieu could miss Opening Day due to a bone bruise in his foot.

🏈 The Post's Brian Costello explains what has happened to the trade market for on-the-outs Jets quarterback Zach Wilson.

🏈 Get to know new Giants offensive lineman Jermaine Eluemunor, who has admired the team since he was a 13-year-old Londoner.

🏀 What's next for St. John's after the March Madness snub? It starts with the transfer portal.

⚾ A guide to the Mets' remaining roster decisions.

STAY IN THE GAME

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