Friday, February 16, 2024

Beyond the Back Page: Title tiers

The injury-ravaged Knicks that have dropped four straight games entering the All-Star break are not the team you will see in the spring.
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by Howie Kussoy

Welcome back. In today's newsletter, we'll discuss the pecking order of NBA title contenders, the Caitlin Clark effect and All-Star Weekend.

Where the Knicks' NBA title chances stack up in a season with no clear-cut favorite

Let's ignore the past two weeks.

The injury-ravaged Knicks that have dropped four straight games entering the All-Star break are not the team you will see in the spring. Think of the team you watched a few weeks back, playing to their potential, winning nine straight by an average of nearly 16 points, which included a 38-point drubbing of the defending champion Nuggets.

You have seen Jalen Brunson become an All-Star, Julius Randle remain an All-Star and OG Anunoby elevate the Knicks to another level. You saw Leon Rose improve the roster with the acquisitions of Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks. You have watched Tom Thibodeau squeeze the most out of the rare team that never mails it in, building a top-10 offense and defense, whose physicality and passion should frighten any potential postseason opponent. You have seen enough to know everything is in play this season, partly because of what you haven't seen around the league.

There are no dynasties to topple, no overwhelming favorite that appears unbeatable. No one took Golden State's place after Kevin Durant ruptured his Achilles in the 2019 NBA Finals. There have been five different champions in the past five seasons. That hadn't happened since the 1970s. The Eastern Conference has had five different representatives in the past six Finals.

Miami — as a 5-seed and 7-seed — made it twice. What happened in the regular season was irrelevant. The potential was always there, just as it was for the Nuggets, who went 7-10 at the end of last season before winning their first NBA title. Just as it is for the Knicks, who built a meaningful foundation last season by winning their first playoff series in a decade. When healthy, the franchise has a higher ceiling than at any point in a quarter-century.

Josh Hart #3 celebrates with Precious Achiuwa #5 of the New York Knicks during the first half against the Denver Nuggets at Madison Square Garden on January 25, 2024 in New York City.
The Knicks appear to have a higher playoff ceiling than they have had in a quarter-century.
Getty Images

More than halfway through the NBA season, let's take a look at how the Knicks compare with the league's other contenders and the also-rans:

The favorites

Nuggets (36-19): The champs aren't as deep as they were last season and don't always appear fully engaged, but Nikola Jokic is the front-runner to win his third MVP and the supporting cast carries the confidence of last season's success. The Nuggets will flip the switch in April, as they did last year.

Celtics (43-12): The betting favorites entered the season as the most talented team on paper and have backed it up with the seamless additions of Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday. Health — and the memories of so many crushing postseason defeats — may be the only hurdle the Celtics have to clear in their chase for their first championship in 16 years.

Level 1 contenders

Bucks (35-21): Damian Lillard is still settling in. Doc Rivers has been on the job less than a month. And the Bucks still have another two months to find their footing, with the safety net of Giannis Antetokounmpo having what may be the best season of his career, averaging 30.7 points, 11.4 rebounds, 6.3 assists and 61.1 percent shooting from the field.

Milwaukee Bucks guard Damian Lillard (0) celebrates his three-point basket with Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) in the first half of an NBA basketball game in Detroit, Saturday, Jan. 20, 2024.
When you have the kind of talent the Bucks do in Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo, a Finals run is never out of the question.
AP

Clippers (36-17): The James Harden trade has been a home run, propelling a team that opened 3-7 to 28 wins in their past 35 games. The veteran-led squad has title experience in two-time Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard and head coach Tyronn Lue, but the franchise's first-ever Finals appearance hinges on three aging stars — including Paul George — with troubled injury histories.

Suns (33-22): Phoenix remains a work in progress, with Bradley Beal only 30 games into his new role as a third option, but the historically efficient pairing of Kevin Durant and Devin Booker has given the Suns one of the league's best offenses. Phoenix's high-end talent can take down any team, but the lack of frontcourt depth may be the team's downfall in the wrong playoff matchup.

Level 2 contenders

Timberwolves (39-16): The potential top seed in the West built the league's best defense with size and depth, but Minnesota still needs Anthony Edwards to take another leap for a team that hasn't won a playoff series in 20 years.

Thunder (37-17): Oklahoma City is ahead of schedule — again. The Thunder are the league's second-youngest team and their core of MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Rookie of the Year co-favorite Chet Holmgren and two-way gem Jalen Williams will make Oklahoma City contenders for the foreseeable future. Their first playoff run will be the hardest.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 of the Oklahoma City Thunder drives around Joe Ingles #7 of the Orlando Magic in the second half at Kia Center on February 13, 2024 in Orlando, Florida.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has himself in contention for MVP and the Thunder in contention for the top seed in the West.
Getty Images

Heat (30-25): Another underwhelming regular season is unimportant. When you bring back the pieces that made two of the past four NBA Finals — and were an open Jimmy Butler 3-pointer away from a third appearance — you must be considered a threat to do it again.

Knicks (33-22): If the roster can get healthy, the Knicks can still grab a 2-seed or 3-seed and have an easier path to the Eastern Conference Finals. The Knicks haven't been among the final four teams in 23 years. Get there — last year, Miami upset Boston after taking out top-seeded Milwaukee — and anything can happen.

Cavaliers (36-17): They enter the break with 18 wins in their past 20 games. But what will happen when the Donovan Mitchell-led group gets punched in the mouth, like in last year's first-round exit against the Knicks?

Wild cards

76ers (32-22): Joel Embiid was cruising to his second straight MVP before suffering a knee injury that required surgery. Without the superstar center, the 76ers are 6-14, and likely headed for the Play-In Tournament. The team says it's optimistic Embiid could return for the postseason.

Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers looks on after a game against the Dallas Mavericks at the Wells Fargo Center on February 05, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
The 76ers are hopeful Joel Embiid might be back in uniform by the postseason after suffering a meniscus injury.
Getty Images

Lakers (30-26): LeBron James and Anthony Davis have been healthy and thriving, but the Lakers still have not hit their stride. If L.A. remains a Play-In team, an unproven, high-seeded team (Minnesota, Oklahoma City) could pay for their success.

Warriors (27-26): Klay Thompson is unrecognizable, Draymond Green has threatened to derail the season, Chris Paul fractured his hand and assistant coach Dejan Milojevic died unexpectedly. Yet the Warriors have won six of their past seven games and are playing their best ball of the season on both ends, thanks to Stephen Curry's continued brilliance and the emergence of Jonathan Kuminga and rookie Brandin Podziemski.

Pelicans (33-22): Zion Williamson played in an average of fewer than 29 games in his first four seasons in the league. Who is betting on him making it to the finish line and starring in his first playoff series? Even if he does, the Pelicans are the only team in the league without a win when facing a fourth-quarter deficit (0-13).

Mavericks (32-23): Dallas is riding a six-game win streak, Luka Doncic is having an MVP-level season and Kyrie Irving has avoided controversy. The two stars make the Mavericks a tough playoff out, but not yet a deep threat: They are 6-13 against the West's eight best teams this season.

Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic #77, with the ball, guarded by New York Knicks guard Charlie Brown Jr. #44, in the 3rd quarter.
With a healthy Luka Doncic, the Mavericks are a team no opponent would want to see in the playoffs.
Charles Wenzelberg/New York Post

Maybe next year

Magic (30-25): Success would be staying out of the Play-In Tournament. Paolo Banchero is 21. Franz Wagner is 22. So is Jalen Suggs. The future is bright.

Kings (31-23): Last season's best story has inconsistency to blame for its failure to improve. Domantas Sabonis and De'Aaron Fox can carry the Kings only so far.

Pacers (31-25): Tyrese Haliburton heads one of the highest-scoring offenses in NBA history, averaging 123.7 points per game on nearly 51 percent shooting from the field. Indiana's defense, ranked 26th, will be its downfall.

Rockets (24-30): Houston is fading after a fast start, due to a 5-21 road record. But the frontcourt of Alperen Sengun, 21, and Jabari Smith Jr., 20, may soon be among the league's best.

No-man's land

Hawks (24-31): The Trae Young era could be on its last legs. The Hawks likely will make another Play-In appearance, but they may soon need to rebuild. They are in the midst of their worst season in four years and are three years removed from their most recent playoff series win.

Trae Young #11 of the Atlanta Hawks shoots a three-point basket against the Chicago Bulls during the first quarter at State Farm Arena on February 12, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia.
Trae Young's name has become increasingly prominent in trade rumors with the Hawks struggling to gain momentum.
Getty Images

Jazz (26-30): Utah plans to compete after keeping Lauri Markkanen, but a Play-In berth hopes rest on a collapse by the Warriors or Lakers.

Bulls (26-29): They failed to make a move at the trade deadline for the third straight season. There is no hope now — or in the future.

Nets (21-33): Mikal Bridges summed it up this week ("A lot of sh-t is not right") following the team's worst loss since 1978. Since a 13-10 start to the season, Brooklyn has gone 8-23. The Nets have failed to demonstrate a strong plan for the present or the future, and don't own their upcoming first-round pick. They could still make the Play-In Tournament. Then what?

Raptors (19-36): Toronto threw in the towel this season, shipping Pascal Siakam to Indiana. A new era begins with RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley and Scottie Barnes.

The basement

Grizzlies (20-36): Ja Morant played nine games this season. It's amazing the Grizzlies have won as much as they have.

Trail Blazers (15-39): Portland is a team in transition, battling injuries. No. 3 overall pick Scoot Henderson still has a ways to go: He's shooting 37.4 percent from the field with the third-worst turnover ratio of any player averaging double-digit minutes.

San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama (1) drives against Dallas Mavericks center Daniel Gafford during the first half of an NBA basketball game in Dallas, Wednesday, Feb. 14, 2024
Prized No. 1 draft pick Victor Wembanyama has not disappointed in his first season with the Spurs.
AP

Spurs (11-44): Victor Wembanyama can't do it alone, but it has been fun to watch the 7-foot-4 Frenchman try, living up to his immense hype.

Hornets (13-41): Charlotte is celebrating the selection of Brandon Miller, but the rookie will need patience, following the trades of veterans Terry Rozier and Gordon Hayward. After playing in 36 games last season, LaMelo Ball has played in less than half (22) of the Hornets' games this season.

Pistons (8-46): Monty Williams arrived in Detroit on the largest coaching contract in NBA history with an annual salary of more than $13 million. It may cost the Pistons more than $1 million per win.

Wizards (9-45): The less said, the better.

Today's back page

The back cover of the New York Post on Feb. 16, 2024
New York Post

Caitlin Clark changes the game

It is official.

Caitlin Clark became the all-time leading scorer in NCAA women's basketball history after scoring 49 points in No. 4 Iowa's 106-89 win at Michigan on Thursday night, breaking the mark of former Washington star Kelsey Plum.

Clark, who set the record with a trademark left-wing logo 3-pointer early in the first quarter, now has 3,569 career points and counting.

It is a fitting honor for the face of college basketball.

Clark has reached a level of mainstream stardom — she was a talking point among Republican presidential candidates before the Iowa caucuses — the men's side hasn't seen since Zion Williamson, moving into position to make the greatest impact of any player the women's side has ever seen.

Iowa Hawkeyes guard Caitlin Clark (22) breaks NCAA women's all-time scoring record during game against Michigan Wolverines.
Iowa's Caitlin Clark exults after hitting the shot that made her the all-time leading scorer in NCAA women's basketball.
USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con

It was impossible to see coming, even for a girl who starred on all-boys teams in elementary school and became the fourth-ranked player in the nation in her high school class, out of West Des Moines, Iowa. Clark chose the Hawkeyes over Notre Dame and Iowa State, and became the top scorer in the nation in her first season. She held that spot as a sophomore, finished No. 2 as a junior and is back on top this season. She's also leading the nation in assists for the third straight season. She is averaging 32.8 points, 6.9 rebounds and 8.5 assists while hitting 39.9 percent of her 3-pointers on 13.5 attempts per game.

Like Steph Curry, Clark's artistic and unprecedented style is inspiring a generation of her girls to take up the game, and if not, to take in her games. She is converting fans of the men's game – present company included — who marvel at her vision, clutchness and long-distance shot-making, who have seen her achieve the extraordinary by turning regular-season games into must-see events.

Clark is the reason Iowa set an NCAA women's basketball attendance record, drawing 55,646 fans to Kinnick Stadium for a preseason exhibition. She is the reason every Iowa road game has been a sellout, with opposing schools seeing attendance increases of 150 percent, according to the Associated Press. She is the reason that nearly 1.6 million viewers watched a game between the Hawkeyes and Maryland on Feb. 3, marking Fox's highest-rated women's college basketball in history. Just over a week later, the network welcomed nearly 1.8 million viewers for a game against Nebraska. Against Ohio State, Iowa's game peaked with 3.9 million viewers in an overtime affair.

Last season, when Clark set the all-time record for points in an NCAA Tournament, she helped improve Final Four ratings by 66 percent over the previous year, carrying Iowa to its first title game, which drew nearly 10 million viewers.

Young Iowa Hawkeyes fans hold signs for Caitlin Clark #22 of the Iowa Hawkeyes (not pictured)as she warms up prior to the game against the Northwestern Wildcats at Welsh-Ryan Arena on January 31, 2024 in Evanston, Illinois.
Caitlin Clark fans of all ages and genders have filled the stands for her games, at Iowa and on the road.
Getty Images

She will enter this year's NCAA Tournament as March Madness' biggest star, the kind the men's game has struggled to produce in the one-and-done era, the kind the women's game has longed for to persuade close-minded hoops fans.

"She is a great player, great kid, really good for our game," Northwestern coach Joe McKeown said earlier this season. "It's just an opportunity to showcase women's basketball, and we're excited about that.

"The bittersweet part is that you wish it were like that all the time."

If it was, it wouldn't be so special. It wouldn't grow the sport, like Magic and Bird. It wouldn't change the game, like Jordan and Curry.

It is unlike anything the women's game has ever seen. And now, it is finally being seen.

The All-Star weekend lineup

A dance group practices in front of Gainbridge Fieldhouse, site of the NBA All-Star basketball game, in Indianapolis, Wednesday, Feb. 14, 2024. The NBA All-Star game in Sunday.
New names and new events in Indianapolis offer the NBA hope it can turn around its poor All-Star weekend ratings from last year.
AP

The NBA All-Star Weekend is upon us. Coming off last year's worst-ever ratings, this weekend should fare better, with multiple events in Indianapolis holding unique appeal.

Friday

This year may be the only time Victor Wembanyama isn't in the All-Star Game. Still, the 20-year-old top pick will seize the spotlight in the Rising Stars Challenge (9 p.m, TNT), a four-team mini-tournament also featuring Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren and Brandon Miller.

Saturday

Wembanyama also will take the court in the Skills Challenge (8 p.m., TNT), but the biggest draw of the evening will be the first-ever NBA vs. WNBA 3-Point Challenge, pitting Stephen Curry against the Liberty's Sabrina Ionescu.

Curry, a two-time 3-point contest winner and the greatest shooter in the history of the sport, is a strong favorite (-265) to prevail, but Warriors star could face trouble if Ionescu — who set the WNBA single-season 3-point record last season — replicates her performance from last year's WNBA 3-point contest, when she scored 37 out of a possible 40 points and hit 20 consecutive shots. Both players will shoot from the NBA 3-point line.

Jalen Brunson will participate in the traditional 3-point shootout, looking to become the first member of the Knicks to win the event. Previously, the Knicks have been represented by Trent Tucker, Hubert Davis, Charlie Ward, Allan Houston, Quentin Richardson, Danilo Gallinari, Steve Novak and Julius Randle. The past two winners of the contest will be in the competition (Damian Lillard, Karl-Anthony Towns), as will Trae Young, Donovan Mitchell, Lauri Markkanen, Tyrese Haliburton and Malik Beasley.

New York Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu shoots a 3-point basket during the first half of Game 3 of a WNBA basketball semifinal playoff series against the Connecticut Sun, Sept. 29, 2023, in Uncasville, Conn. All-Star Saturday Night, Feb. 17, 2024, gets an event like never before: Sabrina Ionescu vs. Stephen Curry, in a 3-point battle of the sexes.
Though not the betting favorite, Sabrina Ionescu's WNBA All-Star shooting performance promises a potentially fun 3-point duel with Steph Curry.
AP

The night will conclude with the Slam Dunk Contest, featuring defending champ Mac McClung, Jaylen Brown, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Jacob Toppin of the Westchester Knicks. Before you bemoan the lack of star power and throw out tired criticism of stale dunks, pull up McClung's incredible performance from last season.

Sunday

The 73rd All-Star game will feature no defense. This, we already know. But the game will also mark a return to the traditional matchup of East vs. West, playing standard 12-minute quarters.

Brunson is one of four players (Banchero, Tyrese Maxey, Scottie Barnes) making their first All-Star Game appearances.

What we're reading 👀

⚾ It doesn't roll off the tongue like "Ya gotta believe," but Francisco Lindor's rallying cry makes a lot of sense: If the Diamondbacks and Rangers could make the World Series last year, why can't the Mets?

🏒 The Rangers won their sixth straight behind Chris Kreider's hat trick, but the story of the night was Blake Wheeler's seemingly serious right leg injury. They need a first-line right wing — is it Brennan Othmann time?

⚾ The Post's Joel Sherman explores the risk the Yankees are assuming by counting on DJ LeMahieu in the leadoff spot.

⚾ The call that took down former Mets GM Billy Eppler apparently was coming from inside the house.

⛳ Tiger Woods hit a shank on No. 18 in his first full-field PGA Tour round in 10 months, and finished 1-over.

⚾ Rob Manfred said he will step down as MLB commissioner ... after five more seasons. Someone's gotta look at the pace of play on that.

⚾ Lenny Dykstra is on the mend, according to former Mets teammates.

🏁 Hey, the Daytona 500 is this weekend.

⚽ Soccer superstar Kylian Mbappé is going to be a free agent.

WEIGH IN ON THE NEWS

Topic of the Day

What will determine the Knicks' fate this season?
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