Thursday, February 22, 2024

Beyond the Back Page: Bagging Barkley

For the first time, there legitimately could be the colors of another uniform in Saquon Barkley's future.
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by Ryan Dunleavy

The face of the Giants might soon be the face of another team. If the Giants don't re-sign Saquon Barkley, there are plenty of other teams with the need and wherewithal to strike when NFL free agency begins March 11, and we explore potential suitors in today's Post Sports+ newsletter.

Also in today's newsletter, you'll find the first 'oh no!' feeling of the Mets season, a look ahead to a big game for Rutgers on the March Madness bubble and some likely winners of the new college football playoff bubble.

Help for Harbaugh? Revenge from Philly? Who are the biggest threats to poach Saquon Barkley from the Giants?

The Giants' grand plan once called for Saquon Barkley to go right from a career in blue to slipping on a gold jacket at his Hall of Fame induction ceremony.

The first six seasons of a Barkley-Giants marriage hasn't gone as smoothly as either side anticipated, however. And now, for the first time, there legitimately could be the colors of another uniform in Barkley's future as NFL free agency approaches.

Barkley doesn't want to be restricted from reaching the free-agent market by a franchise tag for the second consecutive offseason, and the Giants don't want to lose $12.1 million in salary-cap space by applying the tag before the March 5 deadline, so the number of possible resolutions to a prolonged contract stand-off are dwindling.

In the absence of the tag or a multi-year extension in place by March 11, Barkley will become a free agent for the first time in his career.

New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley runs the ball in the first half at MetLife Stadium, Monday, Dec. 11, 2023, in East Rutherford, NJ.
After their tense negotiations last summer, Saquon Barkley and the Giants appear headed for a potential divorce this offseason.
Corey Sipkin for the NY Post

It still seems to be in the best interest of a team devoid of playmakers with a head coach on the hot seat to re-sign Barkley, just like it seems to be in the best interest of a 27-year-old running back with a New York-based life to re-sign with the Giants. Barkley and Giants owner John Mara have mutually communicated their interest in staying together, but there are other factors at work.

If it doesn't happen, which other teams could poach Barkley? Here is a list after conferring with NFL sources, keeping in mind salary-cap situations, team needs and Barkley's desire to put up the victories and statistics necessary to build an all-time legacy:

Texans: Quarterback C.J. Stroud and receivers Nico Collins and Tank Dell are under rookie contracts. If the Texans cut receiver Robert Woods, which is a possibility, the highest salary-cap charge in 2024 for one of Stroud's weapons would belong to fullback Andrew Beck ($3.7 million).

In other words, the Texans are perfectly constructed financially to fit a highly paid running back who could boost the No. 23-ranked rushing attack in the league — a disappointment with three foundational offensive linemen in place. Not to mention a fast-rising young team of stars — many of whom played in the Big Ten, where Barkley is a legend — would benefit from his leadership, especially during times of adversity.

Quarterback C.J. Stroud #7 of the Houston Texans hands the ball off against the Baltimore Ravens during the AFC Divisional Playoff game at M&T Bank Stadium on January 20, 2024 in Baltimore, Maryland.
Saddled with the 23rd-ranked rushing offense in the NFL, C.J. Stroud still guided the Texans to the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
Getty Images

Chargers: New regime, new ideas, so it's possible that the Chargers will view running backs differently than when former general manager Tom Telesco (now leading the Raiders) played hardball with Melvin Gordon and Ekeler.

Did Ryan Leaf — a friend and former teammate of Jim Harbaugh's — spill the beans when he said that he thinks Barkley is "going to be at the top" of the new head coach's wish list? The Chargers are about to undergo a salary-cap purge given that they have six players scheduled to count more than $19 million against the cap in 2024, but maybe Harbaugh sees the dual-threat Barkley as a 2-in-1 weapon to counteract some losses.

Eagles: If Barkley isn't happy with the value of the multi-year offers he receives, could the Eagles swoop in with a big one-year deal? General manager Howie Roseman doesn't generally invest in running backs (D'Andre Swift is a free agent), but he always is looking for a motivated rental — and after last year's late-season collapse there is some pressure to make a splash.

The sales pitch to Barkley is easy: Come stick it to the Giants twice a year, many of your friends grew up as Eagles fans, experience a deep playoff run, put up big numbers running behind the best offensive line of your career and reset your value for next year's free agency.

D'Andre Swift #0 of the Philadelphia Eagles hurdles Dane Belton #24 of the New York Giants to avoid a tackle for a first down during the fourth quarter at Lincoln Financial Field on December 25, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
With free agent D'Andre Swift possibly playing elsewhere next season, the Eagles may have an opening for a starting running back who is very familiar with the Giants.
Getty Images

Cowboys: Owner Jerry Jones is fighting Father Time as he searches for the missing piece to get the Cowboys over the hump in the playoffs. Is it Barkley, who could fulfill his tastes for winning, revenge and great blocking in this NFC East city, too?

The Cowboys love to add stars — how many non-quarterbacks have a bigger marketing presence than Barkley? — and are not adverse to paying running backs. They learned the hard way with Tony Pollard in 2023 that not any back who was good in a timeshare is going to be able to carry the load, so they could go back to their roots of handing the keys to workhorses like Emmitt Smith, DeMarco Murray and Ezekiel Elliott.

Bears: Not only do the Bears hold the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft, they have about $70 million in cap space entering free agency, per spotrac.com. Only three teams have more, and none finished last season on as much of an upswing (5-3 in the last eight games).

Pairing quarterback Caleb Williams — assuming he is drafted and Justin Fields is traded — with a steady ground game and a checkdowns-catcher like Barkley could ease the rookie's transition. The need is there after Khalil Herbert (611 yards) was the top running back last season.

New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley (26) catches a pass during overtime against the New York Jets, Sunday, Oct. 29, 2023, in East Rutherford, NY.
Saquon Barkley's ability to reliably catch passes out of the backfield is an asset any quarterback would like.
Corey Sipkin for the NY Post

Don't discount the allure to Barkley of playing home games on grass late in his career, though he did suffer a torn ACL at Soldier Field in 2020.

Packers: By swapping in Barkley for free agent Aaron Jones, 29, the youngest roster in the NFL actually gets a little younger.

The Packers weren't just a surprise 2023 playoff participant. They were one play away from beating the eventual NFC champion 49ers.

Rising star quarterback Jordan Love still has one year remaining on a manageable contract that allows spending elsewhere on the roster. Imagine if the Packers surrounded Love with the type of rushing attack in the regular season — when they got four total touchdowns on the ground from all their running backs combined — that he had in the two playoff games.

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) leaps past San Francisco 49ers cornerback Deommodore Lenoir (2) during the first half of an NFL football NFC divisional playoff game Saturday, Jan. 20, 2024, in Santa Clara, Calif.
Jordan Love likely wouldn't reject the offensive flexibility Barkley could add to the Packers' attack.
AP

Broncos: Head coach Sean Payton called Barkley "the best running back prospect I've seen in 25 years" before the 2018 draft.

That was a long time ago for both parties, but Payton's history with the Saints — when Mark Ingram, Reggie Bush and Alvin Kamara all were re-signed after their rookie contracts — suggests his offense works best with a pass-catcher out of the backfield. General manager George Paton was part of the Vikings front office when Dalvin Cook was extended.

If the Broncos move on from quarterback Russell Wilson, Barkley gives the offense an identity in the meantime. It's time to replace three-year disappointment Javonte Williams.

Today's back page

New York Post

Senga sidelined?

At least the good vibes that accompany the start of every new MLB season lasted nearly a full week for the Mets.

Then came Wednesday's news that Kodai Senga — the ace of an already too-thin starting rotation — is experiencing "arm fatigue" and might need an MRI.

Consider it an ominous sign at best, the first step toward a crushing blow at worst. Suddenly, memories of last season's disappointing finish and injury-plagued roster are rushing back to mind.

Senga reported to spring training with immense pressure on his shoulders compared to where he was at this point last February.

Corey Sipkin for the NY Post
Kodai Senga's fatigued throwing arm could complicate Carlos Mendoza's plan for the Mets' rebuilt rotation.
Corey Sipkin for the NY Post

Back then, Senga was slotted as a No. 3 or No. 4 starter in a rotation fronted by Cy Young Award winners Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. Now, after the Mets traded that duo and struck out in their free-agent pursuit of Yoshinobu Yamamoto to lead the rotation, Senga is the unquestioned ace in front of Jose Quintana, Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and Tylor Megill.

Senga's first season was a success, as he finished second in National League Rookie of the Year voting after striking out 202 and pitching to a 2.98 ERA in 166 ⅔ innings. But former manager Buck Showalter often rearranged his rotation to find an extra day of rest between starts to ensure a stronger Senga.

Because Senga still was getting accustomed to MLB demands after the once-a-week pitching schedule in Japan, there was a thought that the Mets might shut him down late last season to rest his arm. Instead, he was brilliant over 30 innings in September and October.

But at what cost? Missed time or ineffectiveness early this season?

New York Mets starting pitcher Kodai Senga #34, pitching in the 1st inning.
Senga allowed only seven earned runs while striking out 38 over his last 30 innings in September and October in 2023.
Charles Wenzelberg/New York Post

It's too soon to know the level of concern or a diagnosis for Senga.

But the Mets have earned the right for fans to quickly reach for the panic button with their tortured history and their unwillingness to pivot toward a respectable Plan B for the rotation in free agency after missing out on Yamamoto. Even if the next update to come from manager Carlos Mendoza is rooted in optimism, let this be a reminder to stay on the edge.

Rutgers' bubble watch

When the Rutgers men's basketball team needs a mammoth upset to climb back onto the NCAA Tournament bubble, who better than Purdue to be on the other side?

Rutgers (14-11) is a heavy road underdog heading into its duel with No. 3 Purdue (23-3) at 7 p.m. on Thursday in a game that could go a long way toward determining how much local flavor is a part of March Madness, but it is in the program's DNA to author memorable moments in this Big Ten rivalry.

The Scarlet Knights have won five of the last eight meetings between the schools, including twice beating the Boilermakers as the No. 1-ranked team in the country — on Dec. 9, 2021 at home and on Jan. 2, 2023 on the road.

Jeremiah Williams #25 of the Rutgers Scarlet Knights drives against Braeden Carrington #4 of the Minnesota Golden Gophers in the second half at Williams Arena on February 18, 2024 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Golden Gophers defeated the Scarlet Knights 81-70.
Rutgers has gone 4-1 since Jeremiah Williams was ruled eligible to play this season.
Getty Images

How much would winning in West Lafayette, Ind. for the third time in the last four trips help Rutgers in a year when the bubble is stronger than the recent norm?

"I believe at best it could boost Rutgers into the 'First Four Out,'" Brad Wachtel, a notoriously accurate bracketologist and former men's basketball administrator for the Scarlet Knights, told Post Sports+.  "A win at Purdue means they won't have to win at Nebraska and at Wisconsin. They would likely need to win out at home and steal one of those two road games. I don't think just winning out at home would be enough as their home opponents are non-tourney teams."

Just having this bubble discussion seemed outlandish not long ago, but Rutgers is 4-1 since guard Jeremiah Williams (13.2 points per game) was declared eligible and debuted on Feb. 3. After its bubble burst last season due to a poor strength of schedule, Rutgers' NET rating (90) is a résumé detriment once again.

"They'd definitely still have work to do," Wachtel said. "The selection committee will view their profile with the understanding that they are a different team with Jeremiah Williams in the lineup, which is important. A win at Purdue would give RU a major improvement to their metrics, which is something that's needed to get them closer to the field."

Playoff payoff

Iowa kicker Marshall Meeder, second right, celebrates with Steven Stilianos, from left, Logan Lee and Tory Taylor after Meeder kicked a last-second field goal to win against Nebraska during an NCAA college football game Friday, Nov. 24, 2023, in Lincoln, Neb.
If the Hawkeyes' recent past is any indication, Iowa may want to clear its calendar at College Football Playoff time going forward.
AP

The 12-team college football playoff format approved by vote Tuesday includes five automatic qualifying bids given to the highest-ranked conference champions plus seven at-large berths. The so-called "5+7" model is a necessary tweak from the original plan of "6+6" in response to the collapse of the Pac-12.

It might seem like a slight modification on the surface, but it could be a big difference-maker for programs that live on the bubble.

Post Sports+ looked at the last eight years of the final College Football Playoff rankings to see which teams most frequently finish ranked in the range of No. 10 through No. 17 and thus could be the recipient of the final at-large berth, depending on how the puzzle breaks in any given year.

Four times: Penn State, LSU, Iowa

Three times: Notre Dame, Utah

Two times: Oklahoma, USC, Washington, Michigan State, Florida State, Auburn West Virginia, Florida, BYU, Oregon, Louisville

Oregon State quarterback DJ Uiagalelei (5) walks by the Pac-12 logo and waves to fans after the team's NCAA college football game against Oregon, Friday, Nov. 24, 2023, in Eugene, Ore. This was the final Pac-12 football game for the team.
The flurry of conference realignments left both Oregon State and Washington State with very unlikley paths to the new playoff.
AP

If those teams are the winners of the new model, the clear losers are Washington State and Oregon State — the two Pac-12 teams left without a home in one of the big four conferences after realignment. The two programs reached a scheduling agreement with the Mountain West in 2024, but there is virtually no path to the playoff because there is no automatic conference qualifier available to them and earning an at-large berth with a soft strength of schedule is unlikely.

For the record, both Washington State and Oregon State finished ranked between No. 10 and No. 17 once in the eight-year sampling.

What we're reading 👀

🏀 On one hand, it was good to hear Julius Randle say he's feeling "better and stronger," but on the other, it wasn't so nice to hear the Knicks star forward say that season-ending surgery on his dislocated shoulder hasn't been ruled out.

⚾ There were a lot of reasons to buy into the potential of Anthony Volpe and Francisco Alvarez last season, but to Joel Sherman, "what was most memorable ... is how their veteran teammates felt about them ... in a real-knows-what-real-looks-like kind of way."

🏀 Yes, the Knicks are banged up, but that doesn't mean they'll get any sympathy Thursday night from a Sixers team that knows what it's like to navigate a season without its most important players, writes Mike Vaccaro.

🏀 That St. John's beat Georgetown helped calm the waters around the reeling Red Storm, but not as much as Rick Pitino's apology to his team, writes Zach Braziller. "[I] told them I absolutely love you guys, I would never, ever want to embarrass you. But it's my bad; I'm at fault," Pitino said.

⚽ MLS season opened last night and already Lionel Messi is making headlines for his play, and he didn't even score.

WEIGH IN ON THE NEWS

Topic of the Day

What will determine the Knicks' fate this season?
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