Thursday, March 12, 2020

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World Alert: Sophie Grégoire Trudeau, wife of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, tests positive for the coronavirus

Posted: 12 Mar 2020 07:28 PM PDT

The Canadian leader is not showing symptoms, his office said, but will remain in self-isolation for 14 days and continue to conduct meetings by phone. His wife had a message for Canadians: "We will get through this situation together."
 
Democracy Dies in Darkness
 
 
World Alert Mar 12, 10:27 PM
 
 
Sophie Grégoire Trudeau, wife of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, tests positive for the coronavirus

The Canadian leader is not showing symptoms, his office said, but will remain in self-isolation for 14 days and continue to conduct meetings by phone. His wife had a message for Canadians: "We will get through this situation together."

Read more »
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Trump quarantines Europe

Posted: 12 Mar 2020 04:14 PM PDT

QuickTake Tonight
Bloomberg

Greetings, QuickTake readers! In this edition: The Fed's injection intervention, one pro-sports cancellation begets another and a trip to the planet where it rains liquid iron.

Trump quarantines Europe

After earlier downplaying the coronavirus threat in the U.S., President Trump on Wednesday evening called for a ban on most travel from Europe for 30 days, starting Friday night. Included in his 10-minute prime-time address were scattered executive actions to protect American workers and businesses rocked by the "foreign virus," he said, casting blame on the EU for failing to restrict travel from China and other hotspots.

What Trump got wrong:

  • "We will be suspending all travel from Europe." Americans or U.K. residents coming from Europe aren't restricted as long as they go through extra screenings. It also only applies to 26 countries, not the entire continent. He didn't explain why the U.K. was exempted.
  • "Insurers agreed to waive co-pays for coronavirus treatments." They agreed to cover coronavirus testing with no co-pays or deductibles but not treatment or tests ordered by a patient's doctor.
  • "Prohibitions will apply to the tremendous amount of trade." The White House quickly clarified, and Trump tweeted, the official proclamation states it "only applies to humans, not goods and cargo."

On the other side of the Atlantic:

  • European leaders denounced the ban. The European Commission said the pandemic "is a global crisis, not limited to any continent and requires cooperation," adding the EU "disapproves that the decision to impose a travel ban was taken unilaterally, without consultation."

$ignificant figures 

$1.5 trillion. How much the Fed vowed to inject into the financial system to calm panicky markets amid the coronavirus meltdown, announced just before U.S. stocks plunged 10% in the Dow's worst day since 1987.

37. The number of days the coronavirus pathogen can stay in a patient's respiratory tract, a study found, which suggests people could remain infectious for weeks and reinforces the difficulty of containment.

308,745,538. The population of the U.S. at the time of the 2010 census. The 2020 census, the first to be conducted primarily online, kicked off Thursday amid fears it'd need a deadline extension due to coronavirus.

Highly quotable 

"Not much more than a one-day-at-a-time approach, no?" Tom Hanks said he and wife Rita Wilson tested positive for coronavirus while in Australia and will stay "isolated for as long as public health requires."

"Impracticality of hosting such events." The NCAA called off March Madness over the "evolving Covid-19 public health threat," following moves by the NBA, MLB, NHL and MLS to suspend or postpone play.

"It is a failing, let's admit it." Anthony Fauci said the U.S.'s distribution of Covid-19 tests "is not really geared to what we need right now," and said the public health system is "not set up" for people to get easily tested.

This is not normal

Tipping point. The Amazon could become an open savannah in a half-century and Caribbean coral reefs could die off in 15 years, a study of 40 separate ecosystems says, warning of irreversible changes within years.

The future is now

Alien weather. Some 390 light-years away in another solar system exists WASP-76b, an ultra-hot Jupiter-like exoplanet, where scientists detected a near-constant rain of extremely dense, scaldingly hot iron droplets.

What's good

Aww. Scientists discovered the world's smallest dinosaur in Myanmar, trapped in 99-million-year-old amber, which preserved a bird-like skull that would've been the size of a bee hummingbird, the tiniest living bird.

Now that you're caught up... Tell your friends to sign up to receive our newsletter five days a week. Follow QuickTake on Twitter, YouTube, Instagram and Facebook.

BTW: Just above the Sydney Opera House, a skywriter left the best advice yet for protecting yourself from coronavirus. 

Thanks for reading!
-Andrew Mach

 

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News Alert: U.S. launches strikes in Iraq against Iranian-backed militias after attack that killed coalition troops

Posted: 12 Mar 2020 03:55 PM PDT

A U.S. official and a militia representative said the strikes were underway. The military action followed the deaths of two U.S. troops and one British service member. Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper said the perpetrators would not "get away with it."
 
Democracy Dies in Darkness
 
 
News Alert Mar 12, 6:53 PM
 
 
U.S. launches strikes in Iraq against Iranian-backed militias after attack that killed coalition troops

A U.S. official and a militia representative said the strikes were underway. The military action followed the deaths of two U.S. troops and one British service member.

Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper said the perpetrators would not "get away with it."

Read more »
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BREAKING NEWS: Retaliatory U.S. airstrikes underway after 2 American troops killed in Iraq

Posted: 12 Mar 2020 03:54 PM PDT

The U.S. is conducting retaliatory airstrikes in Iraq after two U.S. and one British service member died in a rocket attack Wednesday, a U.S. official confirmed to POLITICO.

The strikes come just hours after Pentagon leaders warned that the United States would respond to the deadly attack, which they said was launched by Iranian-backed Shia militia groups in Iraq.

"Let me be clear: The U.S. will not tolerate attacks against our people, our interests or our allies," Defense Secretary Mark Esper told reporters at the Pentagon, adding that he spoke to President Donald Trump after the attack and the president gave him "the authority to do what we need to do consistent with his guidance."

Read more: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/12/iraq-airstrikes-us-iran-127720

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PM Trudeau in self-isolation as wife being tested for COVID-19

Posted: 12 Mar 2020 02:30 PM PDT

Ontario public schools to close for two weeks ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ 
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Here we go.


🏀 First up, here's what's suspended for the time being: the NBA, the NHL, the baseball season, the Junos and a whole lot more.


📚 Also, approximately two million kids in Ontario will be out of school until April 5 as of Friday afternoon.


😐 And while it feels like a lot of bad news all at once, consider this a reminder of the facts about coronavirus, and read it to keep you calm.

 

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PM Trudeau In Self-Isolation As Wife Being Tested For COVID-19

The Prime Minister’s Office issued a statement Thursday that Sophie Grégoire Trudeau had recently returned from a speaking engagement in London, U.K. She began “exhibiting mild flu-like symptoms including a low fever late last night,” it read.

Awaiting test results

 

Should Canada Follow Italy, U.K. And Suspend Mortgage Payments?

Over the past decade, households in many developed countries took on record levels of debt, as a share of income. Which means that a shock to the system that stops people from paying their mortgages could have a much bigger impact on the economy than it would have in the past.

Especially in Canada

 

Ontario Public Schools To Close For 2 Weeks In Response To COVID-19

“We recognize the significant impact this decision will have on families, students, schools, as well as the broader community, but this precaution is necessary to keep people safe.”

Until April 5

Trump Bans All Travel From Europe Amid Coronavirus Pandemic

The president said he would ban non-citizens from travelling to the United States from Europe for 30 days. The ban will apply to anyone in the European Union’s 26-country Schengen Area and those who have travelled there in the past 14 days.

Begins Friday

 

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More headlines

 

Tom Hanks And Rita Wilson Say They Tested Positive For Coronavirus


Coronavirus Can Live On Some Surfaces For Days


Lights Out In Hollywood, Curtains Down On Broadway As Virus Spreads


The Theme For Meghan's Farewell Tour Outfits? 'Revenge Dress' Vibes


A Few Coronavirus Facts To Keep In Mind When You're Panicking

 

What's surprising us

 

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How Women Can Support Other Women At Work

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The nightmare scenario

Posted: 12 Mar 2020 02:28 PM PDT

Evening Briefing
Bloomberg

Now that the bull market is over, an uncertain future awaits U.S. stocks and the nation's economy. Radical moves during the Great Recession, first by President George W. Bush and then by President Barack Obama, eventually helped clear the way for an extraordinary stretch of growth. President Donald Trump has based his argument for a second term on the performance of the markets. Now he faces his own potential nightmare scenario. In a speech last night, Trump offered many misstatements about the Covid-19 pandemic and even his own proposals to address it, which include a payroll tax suspension, $50 billion in small business loans and a controversial ban on European travelers. On the first day of the new bear market, investors delivered their verdict: the S&P 500 had its worst day since 1987, and a day known as Black Monday. —David E. Rovella 

We're tracking the latest on the coronavirus outbreak and the global response. Sign up here for our daily newsletter on what you need to know.

Here are today's top stories

The Fed may have been drawing on the lessons of the last financial crisis when it pledged Thursday to increase purchases of U.S. government securities. After a short pause, however, investors resumed their selloff.

Democrats in the House of Representatives proposed a package of emergency legislation that Trump quickly rejected because it includes what he called "goodies." The bill allows for free coronavirus testing, enhanced unemployment benefits, paid leave and increased Medicaid funding.

Former Vice President Joe Biden, now the Democratic frontrunner, unveiled his plan to fight the spread of Covid-19. His debate Sunday with Senator Bernie Sanders was moved from Phoenix to a Washington studio.

Patients with the new coronavirus keep the pathogen in their respiratory tract for as long as 37 days, a new study found, suggesting they could remain infectious for weeks.

The leading U.S. infectious-disease official said the coronavirus testing  system in America is "a failing." In China, the government says the peak of the outbreak is "generally over." Trump's travel  restriction  drew a furious response  from the European Union and triggered a further  slump in airline stocks. The European Central Bank boosted asset purchases and called for "ambitious and coordinated" action by policy makers. Read the latest on the pandemic in the Bloomberg virus update .

Goldman Sachs says diminishing liquidity in the S&P 500 futures market is driving this week's extreme price moves, which may have been disproportionately driven by individual trades.

Bloomberg Businessweek Special Report, The Lost Year: Overconfidence, delays, mistakes and false information from the Trump administration may have made the epidemic—and its fallout—much worse than it had to be

What you'll need to know tomorrow

What you'll want to read in Bloomberg Pursuits

New York's Cultural Icons Bend to Coronavirus

The decision came down from Albany on Thursday: Broadway is going dark. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo also said he is banning gatherings of more than 500 people to address the spread of the new coronavirus across the city and state. New York City declared its own emergency, too.

 

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Coronavirus triggers the worst market crash since 1987

Posted: 12 Mar 2020 02:04 PM PDT

Bloomberg Opinion Today
Bloomberg

This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a repurchase operation of Bloomberg Opinion's opinions. Sign up here.

Today's Agenda

A whole lotta red.

Photographer: BRYAN R. SMITH/AFP/Getty Images

Trump Speaks, Markets Crash

The coronavirus panic gripping markets, with U.S. stocks falling the most since 1987's Black Monday and threatening a new credit crisis, is being fueled by a global failure of leadership.

Take President Donald Trump. He had a chance last night to reboot his handling of the rapidly unfolding virus crisis and end the market sell-off. Instead he made several unforced errors, blamed other countries for the disease's spread, bragged unconvincingly about his crisis-handling, and unveiled plans that fell far short of what experts or the market wanted. It was a debacle encapsulating the worst of his presidency, writes Jonathan Bernstein. Stock futures collapsed even as he spoke, and major indexes plunged today, falling deeper into a bear market and triggering circuit breakers for the second time in a week.

This must be especially painful for Trump, who has claimed credit for every stock-market gain, notes John Authers. He's now learning why other presidents avoided this: When you claim it on the way up, you own it on the way down.

Trump apparently thinks minimizing the virus's threat and dribbling out economic support will turn markets around. But investors foremost want him to take the health crisis seriously, writes James Bianco. Other countries have gotten to this point more quickly. Tim Culpan suggests there are stages of virus response like the stages of grief. Later stages include acceptance and aggressive action, as we've seen in Taiwan and Italy. The U.S. is still wallowing in the early stage of denial, making the crisis much worse.

And the measures Trump did lay out were inadequate, writes Noah Smith. We need bigger loans to businesses than Trump proposed, along with paid sick leave and drastically expanded virus testing and care. All of that and more was in a Democratic relief bill Trump and Republicans immediately rejected, worsening the market sell-off.

What's more, Trump's controversial European travel restriction is almost certainly pointless now that the virus is already here, writes Justin Fox. Even at their most effective, such bans simply delay transmission.

Trump has also floated bailing out affected industries such as cruise lines and shale frackers, businesses far from critical to the functioning of the nation's economy. Frackers in particular need consolidation, given sagging demand for their product, writes Liam Denning. Supporting them through this crisis is a kind of corporate socialism the Soviet Union would have envied.

Some global leaders are rising to the occasion. Germany's Angela Merkel, for example, has emerged from weeks of politically necessitated hiding to talk seriously about the challenges of the disease, writes Andreas Kluth. These two have long had opposing management styles, to put it mildly, and it's never been clearer.

The time between this bear market's onset and the most recent market peak is the quickest since 1929, James Bianco notes. This is a terrifying comparison, but also a telling one. Back then Franklin Delano Roosevelt successfully calmed the nation by prioritizing honesty, action and teamwork, writes Cass Sunstein. We're a long way from FDR.

ECB Meeting a Big Win for Hawks, Bears

The European Central Bank didn't help by failing to deliver an expected interest-rate cut this morning, as its president, Christine Lagarde, apparently surrendered to the hawks. What's worse, she also delivered red meat to the sovereign-debt bears, shrugging as yield spreads jumped for Italy and other European economies, note Marcus Ashworth and Mark Gilbert.

With one tossed-off sentence — "We are not here to close spreads." — Lagarde dismantled the sense of safety her predecessor Mario Draghi had provided when he protected the debt of EU member states, writes Ferdinando Giugliano. Good thing there's no kind of market crisis going on!

Fed Rushes Into Burning Market With Liquidity Fire Hose

At least somebody on Liberty Street in New York knows how to respond to a crisis. For several days now, the Treasury bond market has been doing very weird things, with rates swinging wildly and occasionally rising even as stocks crash, which seldom happens. It turns out forced selling has created something of a liquidity problem in the bond market, Brian Chappatta writes, so the New York Fed leaped into action with a promise of $1.5 trillion in bond-buying.

This very briefly eased the pain in stocks, but soon investors were back to clamoring for more. One thing the Fed should do right away is slash interest rates to zero, writes Tim Duy. There's no point in keeping its power dry, now that the economy is likely in recession already.

Still, it's good the Fed has committed to supporting the repo market that greases the skids of commerce, writes Brian Chappatta. This should help keep a market crash and recession from turning into a full-blown credit crisis. Because there probably will be unpleasant knock-on surprises, writes Matt Levine, as leverage and positions built up in the good times suddenly unwind.

As for stocks, the duration of this bear market probably depends less on panic than on expectations of the damage about to be done to earnings, suggests Nir Kaissar. Profit forecasts are already being slashed dramatically, notes John Authers. Expectations are for a v-shaped recovery, but a credit crunch could blow up those expectations.

Telltale Charts

The Volatility Index is screaming this is like 2008 all over again, writes Barry Ritholtz. That's either reason to freak out, or an early buying signal. Good luck guessing which!

Further Reading

Vietnam has long been one of the last best markets for coal, but no longer. — Clara Ferreira Marques

Collapsing oil prices make this a good time to put the petroleum industry in Europe's carbon pricing market. — Andreas Kluth

Boris Johnson promises spending that could keep Labour out of power indefinitely, assuming the U.K. can afford it. — Therese Raphael

Iran's killing of American soldiers comes at a ridiculously bad time for the virus-struck regime. — Bobby Ghosh

Virus-era home-schooling will hasten the end of the traditional classroom model. — Stephen Carter

ICYMI

Trump met a Brazilian official who tested positive for coronavirus.

Coronavirus can live in patients for five weeks after contagion.

The NCAA canceled March Madness.

Kickers

K-pop is a government conspiracy. (h/t Mike Smedley)

Ancient shell shows days were shorter 70 million years ago.

Smart devices are eating the market for affordable watches.

We're better equipped to look for extraterrestrial life than ever.

Note: Please send affordable watches and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.

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Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find anywhere else. Learn more.

 

❗ CONFIRMED: You're Getting...

Posted: 12 Mar 2020 01:44 PM PDT

Don't miss this deal!
 ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌  ‌ 
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Chris Harrison was 'shocked' and 'saddened' by Peter Weber's mom Barb at The Bachelor finale

Posted: 12 Mar 2020 01:17 PM PDT

If you are having trouble viewing this email click here
PeoplePeople Daily
3/12/20
 
Chris Harrison says he was in shock as he listened to Peter Weber's mother openly disapprove of his relationship with Madison Prewett
 
EXCLUSIVE
Chris Harrison Was 'Shocked' and 'Saddened' by Peter Weber's Mom Barb at The Bachelor Finale
 
Chris Harrison says he was in shock as he listened to Peter Weber's mother openly disapprove of his relationship with Madison Prewett
 
 
<p>From Hollywood to New York and everywhere in between, see what your favorite stars are up to</p>
 
STAR TRACKS
Michael B. Jordan Gets the Party Started, Plus Andrew Garfield, Brooklyn Beckham & Nicola Peltz and More
 
From Hollywood to New York and everywhere in between, see what your favorite stars are up to
 
 
 
 
IN THIS WEEK'S ISSUE
How Meghan Markle Comforted Prince Harry During His Most 'Emotional' Moment Ahead of Royal Exit
 
"Deep down they are truly in love with each other," a source tells PEOPLE of Meghan and Harry
 
 
 
"My husband got really sick, really fast," said the woman
 
HEARTBREAKING STORY
Wife of Coronavirus Patient in Coma Speaks Out from Quarantine with Twins: 'Take This Seriously'
 
"My husband got really sick, really fast," said the woman
 
 
The actress recalled being the victim of an obscenity-filled tirade for not wearing "a tight dress" to a movie premiere following 9/11
 
SPEAKING OUT
Kate Beckinsale Recalls Shocking Experience with Harvey Weinstein After 9/11: I 'Started to Shake'
 
The actress recalled being the victim of an obscenity-filled tirade for not wearing "a tight dress" to a movie premiere following 9/11
 
 
The man was wearing a mask and gloves, and said he was not feeling well
 
CORONAVIRUS CRISIS
Passenger on JetBlue Flight to Florida Tested Positive for Coronavirus Before Boarding
 
The man was wearing a mask and gloves, and said he was not feeling well
 
 
Meghan and Harry stayed close to Archie by FaceTiming with him every day, a source tells PEOPLE
 
PROTECTING THEIR LITTLE ONE
Why Archie Stayed in Canada During Meghan Markle and Prince Harry's Royal Exit in the U.K.
 
Meghan and Harry stayed close to Archie by FaceTiming with him every day, a source tells PEOPLE
 
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BREAKING NEWS: Market plunges in worst drop since 1987 crash

Posted: 12 Mar 2020 01:07 PM PDT

The stock market tumbled 10% on Thursday — its worst percentage drop since the 1987 crash — despite an attempt by President Donald Trump to calm the growing panic over the coronavirus pandemic.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more than 2,000 points, continuing a weeks-long slide that has knocked the gauge down roughly 30% from its peak.

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Oil Plummets, Iran’s Virus Mistakes, Houthi Offensives, and More

Posted: 12 Mar 2020 11:47 AM PDT

CONGRESSIONAL TESTIMONY
Dana Stroul
House Committee on Foreign Affairs, March 11, 2020
Given the near-certainty of further conflict, Washington should start planning for how it might leverage the next outbreak toward advancing a political process.
OP-ED
Simon Henderson
The Hill, March 10, 2020
The showdown's duration may depend on Moscow and Riyadh's economic calculus, but the U.S. shale industry will suffer either way.
POLICYWATCH 3279
David Makovsky
March 9, 2020
Although Gantz lost the head-to-head battle, Avigdor Liberman strengthened the general's position—and took some diplomatic weight off Trump's shoulders.
POLICYWATCH 3278
Simon Henderson
March 9, 2020
Reports of royal arrests and a possible coup plot suggest that the kingdom is facing another period of considerable political tension.
POLICYWATCH 3277
Mehdi Khalaji
March 9, 2020
The clergy's globalized ambitions and resistance to modern medical science made Qom and the rest of the country uniquely vulnerable to the disease.
POLICYWATCH 3276
Alex Almeida and Michael Knights
March 6, 2020
To keep recent rebel victories from cascading into a wider military collapse, Washington must urge the Gulf coalition to firm up the government's forces.
INTERVIEW
Soner Cagaptay
Bosphorus Review of Books, March 2020
A deep dive into the evolution of Erdogan's regional approach and how it informs the current crises in Syria and other hotspots.
OP-ED
Hanin Ghaddar
Caravan, March 5, 2020
Whether by force or politics, Tehran desperately needs to reconsolidate power among regional Shia, but this may no longer be doable in Iraq and Lebanon.
FIKRA FORUM
Yoel Donchin
March 5, 2020
The chief medical officer at Ben Gurion International Airport outlines what the country has done to curb the disease in the midst of an election season.
OP-ED
Matthew Levitt
Middle East Institute, February 2020
Revelations from a recent terrorism trial suggest that the group could eventually use the preoperational surveillance it regularly collects to carry out an attack.
media
u.S. policy
Dennis Ross told the Boston Herald that the politically popular U.S. idea of leaving the Middle East for good would be "another terrible mistake."
syria
Anna Borshchevskaya told the Arab Weekly that all of Turkey's security deals in Syria have been more advantageous to Russia because Putin has major economic leverage over Erdogan.
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Coronavirus in Iran (Part 2): Regime Resiliency (Khalaji | PolicyWatch 3280)

Posted: 12 Mar 2020 10:39 AM PDT

THE CORONAVIRUS IN IRAN (PART 2): REGIME CULPABILITY AND RESILIENCY
by Mehdi Khalaji

PolicyWatch 3280
March 12, 2020

Even as their lack of transparency worsens the public health crisis, the Supreme Leader and other officials have systematically gutted any civil society elements capable of organizing substantial opposition to such policies.

READ THIS ITEM ON OUR WEBSITE


Iran’s ongoing coronavirus epidemic has left the people with less reason than ever to trust the information and directives issued by their leaders. Part 1 of this PolicyWatch discussed the clergy’s role in aggravating this problem, but the state’s mistakes and deceptions have been legion as well. They include scandalous discrepancies between official reports after a period of denial that the virus had entered the country; a health system that was unprepared to deal with such a disease promptly and properly; and official resistance to implementing internationally recommended precautionary measures, such as canceling flights from China and quarantining the center of the outbreak. These decisions have sown widespread confusion about facts and fictions related to the virus, the most effective medically proven ways to control it, and the degree to which it is spreading throughout the country. As a result, an already restive population has become increasingly panicked about the future and angry at the state.

Yet can the coronavirus actually bring down the regime? The harsh reality is that the state has left little space for opposition to organize around health issues, or any issues for that matter. Instead, it has sought to confuse the people and redirect their anger toward external enemies, even as its own policies contribute to the crisis.

CONCEALING FACTS, DEFLECTING BLAME

In response to health and social challenges like the current epidemic, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his circle frequently resort to two tactics: ideological exploitation and political paranoia. The first centers on Khamenei’s insistence that the regime’s brand of Islam has a solution for all of society’s problems. To prop up this claim against ample evidence to the contrary, the state consistently categorizes data on major social problems as classified information and releases misleading or contradictory reports. For example, despite the growing prevalence of drug addiction among school students, Education Minister Muhammad Bathai has refused to reveal the related statistics. Hassan Mousavi, head of the Iran Association of Social Workers, has complained about the state’s denial of such widespread social problems and its resistance to making the data public. Even parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani has criticized the government’s policy of classifying statistics related to addiction, divorce, and other issues.

The second tactic involves telling the public that Iran’s foreign enemies are bent on treating Muslim bodies as another battlefield on which to destroy Islam. For instance, Khamenei and other authorities have repeatedly accused Western governments of maliciously attempting to lower the birthrate in Muslim societies. In September 2010, he stated: “Westerners are against demographic growth among Muslims...We should not do things in a way that they reach their goal...The decline in birthrate is a very important issue. What is best for our enemies...is that Iran’s population remains around twenty or thirty million people...If they could plan for such an objective they would, they spend money, certainly they spend money.” In his view, even the domestic increase in drug addiction is the “enemy’s conspiracy.”

Another example of this paranoia is transgenic food products. In a February 2016 interview with the Khamenei-controlled newspaper Kayhan, biotechnology expert Ali Karami extensively argued that “transgenic products are Zionism’s conspiracy against the Muslim population.”

Even financial corruption and crime are blamed on the West. For example, in December 2013, Khamenei argued, “One of the effects of the enemies’ cultural invasion is the increasing rate of armed robbery from banks. We have seen it in [American] movies.”

Regarding coronavirus, Khamenei’s initial reaction on February 23 was to characterize “this new disease” as the enemy’s “pretext” to discourage Iranians from voting in the February parliamentary election, giving him a readymade excuse when his fears of plummeting turnout were in fact born out. This claim was followed by President Hassan Rouhani’s warning that the virus was becoming the “enemy’s weapon” to shut down the country.

GUTTING CIVIL SOCIETY IN THE NAME OF SECURITY 

Under the Islamic Republic’s brand of authoritarianism, all independent networks, organizations, institutions, and campaigns are treated as potential threats to state security, regardless of their nature, mission, and impact—including those that benefit the public health. Furthermore, phenomena that a democratic government would define as social disorders or health deficiencies are usually categorized by Tehran as security concerns. This posture often entails blocking nongovernmental actors from intervening in these issues and criminalizing any individual or institution that attempts to get involved.

For example, according to a 2011 Amnesty International report, the Iranian doctors Kamiar Alaei and his brother Arash Alaei were imprisoned from 2008 to 2011 on charges of “cooperating with an enemy government.” Their actual “crime”? Founding an NGO for prevention and treatment of HIV/AIDS. Last week, the brothers wrote a New York Times op-ed titled “How Iran Completely and Utterly Botched Its Response to the Coronavirus.” The article began: “We were doctors in the Iranian health system for years. This is what happens when you make health policy subservient to politics.”

Indeed, Tehran’s lack of transparency and systematic deception regarding the coronavirus is anything but a new behavior. Many citizens are now deeply suspicious of government claims about health issues by default, even when they lack access to accurate data sources that would confirm their mistrust. For instance, when authorities issued contradictory announcements last fall about the unusually high rate of AIDS infection in the province of Chaharmahol and Bakhtiari, street protests soon erupted. The public’s anger was exacerbated when the regime refused to take responsibility for a local medical center’s practice of using HIV-contaminated syringes, instead blaming foreign media and domestic political opponents. On October 19, Health Minister Saeed Namaki insisted that the matter was “classified.” 

The regime has taken a similarly politicized approach to disaster relief. When major flooding struck Kermanshah province in May 2019, many nongovernmental institutions, sports stars, and celebrities managed to raise large sums of money and provide significant aid to the people in need. In response, government media criticized their luxurious lifestyle and complained about their legal tax exemptions, generating significant public resentment toward many celebrities who had previously been well-liked. Such systematic humiliation is Tehran’s way of preventing any alternative authority from taking independent action when citizens come under threat, whether due to the state’s aggression or its incompetence.

Social media and the Internet have done little to break this overwhelming grip. When crises like the coronavirus emerge, even experienced Iranian Internet users are exposed to limitless messages with conflicting, misleading, or manipulative information, much of it disseminated via the regime’s potent cyber capabilities. Most users are therefore quite susceptible to believing and facilitating virtual mass campaigns even if their content winds up sowing misinformation and confusion.

The proliferation of anti-regime campaigns does not necessarily alleviate this problem, especially when some of them tend toward propaganda themselves. When the coronavirus first emerged, regime reports about the crisis failed to persuade many Iranians. Yet the public was similarly skeptical when anti-regime websites and satellite television networks spread dramatically different reports without proof (though in some cases such proof was impossible to obtain given the regime’s deliberate withholding of disease statistics).

IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. POLICY

On paper, the regime’s defining traits seem like a self-destructive combination: declining domestic credibility, international isolation, minimal competence to carry out its basic duties, ceaseless use of violence to maintain control, and an exhausting, defiant, utopian push to expand its hegemony abroad. Perhaps the recent string of crises will make that self-destruction more likely to materialize at some point.

Yet even if the regime founders, the damage it has done to Iranian society leaves little hope for a smooth, speedy transition to a democratic, relatively U.S.-friendly state in the near term. The public is struggling with a profound social trust deficit, the disintegration of shared values, and deep burnout after years of regime aggression and humiliation—all of which would likely delay or abort the strong social and moral solidarity needed to birth a truly promising regime alternative any time soon. Instead, many citizens are focused on just surviving, and have adopted deeply cynical worldviews that create a disturbing sense of living in a lawless space rather than a functioning nation.

In all likelihood, then, only a small subset of actors would be willing and able to fill the vacuum that follows the regime’s ultimate collapse—namely, existing factions that already hold the keys to Iran’s military arsenal and prisons. Such a replacement government would hardly choose to denounce the police state from which it was birthed, nor the defiant anti-Western animosity that has been Khamenei’s calling card. 

Mehdi Khalaji is the Libitzky Family Fellow at The Washington Institute.



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BREAKING NEWS: McConnell postpones Senate recess to work on coronavirus package

Posted: 12 Mar 2020 10:33 AM PDT

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said the Senate will delay its recess scheduled for next week to continue work on an economic relief package dealing with the coronavirus outbreak.

"Notwithstanding the scheduled state work period, the Senate will be in session next week," the GOP leader tweeted. "I am glad talks are ongoing between the Administration and Speaker Pelosi. I hope Congress can pass bipartisan legislation to continue combating the coronavirus and keep our economy strong."

Pelosi is racing to clinch a deal with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on a sweeping aid package.

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BREAKING NEWS: Dem debate moved to D.C. over coronavirus concerns

Posted: 12 Mar 2020 09:41 AM PDT

Sunday's Democratic presidential debate is being moved from Arizona to Washington, D.C. "out of an abundance of caution" over the spread of coronavirus, the Democratic National Committee announced Thursday.

Read more: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/12/dem-debate-moved-to-dc-over-coronavirus-concerns-127222

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Post Exclusive: Satellite images show Iran building vast burial trenches, an indication that Tehran is understating coronavirus toll

Posted: 12 Mar 2020 09:27 AM PDT

The new evidence, supplemented by on-the-ground video, shows that Iran is rapidly expanding a cemetery in the holy city of Qom. Experts say that Iran's public statements appear to have dramatically understated coronavirus impact.
 
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Satellite images show Iran building vast burial trenches, an indication that Tehran is understating coronavirus toll

The new evidence, supplemented by on-the-ground video, shows that Iran is rapidly expanding a cemetery in the holy city of Qom.

Experts say that Iran's public statements appear to have dramatically understated coronavirus impact.

Read more »
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Posted: 12 Mar 2020 08:58 AM PDT

الاتحاد الأوروبي يستنكر قرار ترامب حظر السفر إلى أوروبا من دون استشارة...
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نسختك الخاصة من أخبار يورونيوز – 03/12/20
نشرتك اليومية من الأخبار المختلفة المتنوعة
الاتحاد الأوروبي يستنكر قرار ترامب حظر السفر إلى أوروبا من دون استشارة
الاتحاد الأوروبي يستنكر قرار ترامب حظر السفر إلى أوروبا من دون استشارة...   إقرأ أكثر، للمزيد
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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News Alert: Brazilian official who met Trump at Mar-a-Lago on Saturday tests positive for coronavirus

Posted: 12 Mar 2020 08:38 AM PDT

Fabio Wajngarten, a spokesman for Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, tested positive for covid-19, Brazilian officials said. Wajngarten stood next to President Trump in a photograph with Vice President Pence.
 
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News Alert Mar 12, 11:36 AM
 
 
Brazilian official who met Trump at Mar-a-Lago on Saturday tests positive for coronavirus

Fabio Wajngarten, a spokesman for Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, tested positive for covid-19, Brazilian officials said. Wajngarten stood next to President Trump in a photograph with Vice President Pence.

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خلاصة بصراحة - الخميس 12 آذار/مارس 2020

Posted: 12 Mar 2020 07:28 AM PDT

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Re: today's Incoming newsletter: a spoiler warning and/or apology

Posted: 12 Mar 2020 07:14 AM PDT

If you're a fan of The Masked Singer and didn't see last night's episode, please read on...

The night when all the news happened

Posted: 12 Mar 2020 05:35 AM PDT

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03 12 2020 | مايكل يونغ
مطالعة دورية لخبراء حول قضايا تتعلق بسياسات الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا ومسائل الأمن.
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حزب الله والخط الأحمر الانتحاري
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Thursday Morning Briefing: Coronavirus - Closing U.S. borders to Europe

Posted: 12 Mar 2020 05:10 AM PDT

Coronavirus

Here's what you need to know about the coronavirus outbreak today: Closing U.S. borders to Europe. After being criticised for his government's response to the coronavirus outbreak, U.S. President Donald Trump pulled out all the stops on Wednesday with a month-long travel restriction to the United States from Europe. This order does not apply to Britain or to Americans undergoing "appropriate screenings," Trump said.

The move added to the panic and confusion, not least among those who now have to reconsider travel plans. Flights from Europe can operate to a limited number of U.S. airports with enhanced screening, but only U.S. citizens, permanent residents and immediate family members will be allowed in, severely denting the passenger base and hurting the U.S. tourism industry.
The news hit financial markets hard, with stocks diving and oil slumping, as investors were disappointed by the lack of broad measures to offset a likely fall in consumption.

No pressure, Lagarde. After moves by the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of England, Christine Lagarde faces her biggest test as European Central Bank president today and she doesn’t have much of an arsenal to throw at the coronavirus crisis. Expectations are high for a range of measures – more cheap loans for banks to pass on to small companies, a rate cut and perhaps even a step-up in the bank's stimulus programme.
But Lagarde, who has encouraged ECB staff to work from home if they wish to, will also stress that it is up to governments to react to the pandemic and they should use leeway in their budgets, a more powerful weapon than whatever the ECB can offer. She has told EU leaders inaction could lead to calamity on a par with the global financial crisis.

The spread. There are now more than 126,000 cases of coronavirus globally, after the World Health Organization called the outbreak a pandemic for the first time on Wednesday, and more than 4,600 have died, according to a Reuters tally at 0200 GMT on Thursday. Almost 7,000 cases were reported in the past day, far surpassing the average daily number reported in China during the virus' initial peak.
See Reuters interactive graphic of the spread.

Italy saw the sharpest increase in cases, with over 2,300 in 24 hours, accounting for a third of all new cases in the past day. A total of 196 people died in Italy over the last 24 hours, the largest rise in absolute numbers since the contagion came to light on Feb. 21.
China had eight new coronavirus infections in Hubei province, the first time the epicentre of the pandemic recorded a daily tally in single digits. More businesses reopened as authorities cautiously eased containment measures.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel was criticised for being alarmist when she said the new coronavirus was likely to infect up to 70% of Germans.

World

Years of rooting out drugs at the Brazilian seaport of Santos had given customs inspector Oswaldo Dias a good nose for suspicious cargo. A shipment of second-hand backhoes, bound for Europe late last year, seemed fishy. Read our Special Report on how Brazil's gangs have emerged as major cocaine exporters, flooding Europe with white powder.

When the current European Commission took office in December, its president, Ursula von der Leyen, created the role of a commissioner for ‘Promoting our European Way of Life’ and handed the job to a Greek politician. The job title was originally ‘Protecting our European Way of Life’, but it was criticized for sounding xenophobic. Ironically, it is Greece that now finds itself caught between promoting and protecting what the EU stands for as it faces a refugee crisis.

In the sun-baked scrubland of northern Colombia’s remote La Guajira province, a bitter quarrel rages between two neighboring Wayuu indigenous families, one of them seeking refuge from a humanitarian crisis across the border in Venezuela. Such conflicts over land, water and animals are increasingly common as Venezuela spirals into disaster and thousands of indigenous Wayuu who once left their Colombian homes for Venezuela return.

Turkish and Russian officials have largely reached an agreement on details of a ceasefire in Syria’s Idlib region during talks in Ankara, Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar was quoted as saying by state media on Thursday.

On a crag of rock called Brother’s Point on Scotland’s Isle of Skye, scientists have identified two bustling footprint sites that reveal an abundance of dinosaurs that thrived 170 million years ago including an early member of a celebrated group.

Business

Corporate credit risk heightens as coronavirus impact spreads

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Exclusive: Argentina needs 'substantial' relief in $70 billion debt talks, economy minister says

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Seeking to avoid EU tariffs, Washington state House passes bill to drop Boeing tax break

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Pence says thousands more U.S. coronavirus cases expected

Posted: 12 Mar 2020 05:02 AM PDT

Reuters.com Newsletter

Pence says thousands more U.S. coronavirus cases expected

Vice President Mike Pence on Thursday said thousands more coronavirus cases are expected in the United States, and officials are seeking to ramp up testing.

UK scientists not recommending U.S.-style travel ban: PM's spokesman

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Trump curbs travel from Europe as coronavirus disrupts schools, sports

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First online U.S. census kicks off amid coronavirus fears

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NBA suspends season after Jazz player tests positive for coronavirus

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U.S. senators seek to ban federal employees from using TikTok on their phones

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