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- الموقع الإلكتروني لجريدة المنتخب
- Trending Now: ‘Once this is over, we’ll be kings’: How Lev Parnas worked his way into Trump’s world — and now is rattling it
- Post Exclusive: Venezuela’s embattled President Maduro says he’s firmly in control of country, ready for talks with U.S. to end political stalemate
- Prince Harry and Meghan Markle's arrangement after royal exit will last for a year, source says
- Queen Elizabeth reveals the plan for Prince Harry and Meghan Markle's royal exit and 'peaceful new life'
- News Alert: Britain's Harry and Meghan will give up some of their titles and intend to pay back some housing expenses, palace says
- Most Social: J.C. Penney closing more stores and a call center. Is your store on the list?
- تحديات هائلة تواجه منتدى دافوس العالمي 2020
- Your loyalty to our coverage is greatly appreciated
- Go ahead, spend the money you’re working for: Weekend Edition
- It doesn’t add up
- Trump’s on trial while in Iran, fallout is fierce: Weekend Reads
- Journal numérique - Lundi 20 janvier 2020
- The week when law and order cracked: Taoiseach defends party as record on gang war attacked
- Touchez-vous le salaire que vous méritez ?
- الموقع الإلكتروني لجريدة المنتخب
- The quest to save the secret trees
- BREAKING NEWS: Former Rep. Chris Collins sentenced to 26 months for insider trading scheme
- Behind Rouhani’s Uranium Enrichment Claim (DeLozier | Policy Alert)
- Making the Most of the Berlin Conference on Libya (PolicyWatch 3243)
- Cord-cutting millennials are just like their parents
- Tesla invades Germany
- Meghan Markle spotted driving to Canadian airport to pick up friend amid royal exit
- Europe Is Creating an Opportunity for Iran Talks (PolicyWatch 3242)
- Pelosi's little impeachment party
| الموقع الإلكتروني لجريدة المنتخب Posted: 18 Jan 2020 10:49 PM PST
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| Posted: 18 Jan 2020 05:08 PM PST
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| Posted: 18 Jan 2020 03:50 PM PST
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| Prince Harry and Meghan Markle's arrangement after royal exit will last for a year, source says Posted: 18 Jan 2020 02:34 PM PST
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| Posted: 18 Jan 2020 11:43 AM PST
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| Posted: 18 Jan 2020 11:18 AM PST
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| Most Social: J.C. Penney closing more stores and a call center. Is your store on the list? Posted: 18 Jan 2020 10:01 AM PST  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| تحديات هائلة تواجه منتدى دافوس العالمي 2020 Posted: 18 Jan 2020 07:57 AM PST
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| Your loyalty to our coverage is greatly appreciated Posted: 18 Jan 2020 07:01 AM PST
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| Go ahead, spend the money you’re working for: Weekend Edition Posted: 18 Jan 2020 05:16 AM PST
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| Posted: 18 Jan 2020 04:47 AM PST
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| Trump’s on trial while in Iran, fallout is fierce: Weekend Reads Posted: 18 Jan 2020 04:03 AM PST
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| Journal numérique - Lundi 20 janvier 2020 Posted: 18 Jan 2020 03:00 AM PST
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| The week when law and order cracked: Taoiseach defends party as record on gang war attacked Posted: 18 Jan 2020 12:05 AM PST
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| Touchez-vous le salaire que vous méritez ? Posted: 17 Jan 2020 11:56 PM PST
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| الموقع الإلكتروني لجريدة المنتخب Posted: 17 Jan 2020 11:12 PM PST
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| The quest to save the secret trees Posted: 17 Jan 2020 04:23 PM PST
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| BREAKING NEWS: Former Rep. Chris Collins sentenced to 26 months for insider trading scheme Posted: 17 Jan 2020 03:06 PM PST Former Rep. Chris Collins was sentenced to 26 months in prison for an insider trading scheme that led to his arrest and resignation from Congress. The Western New York Republican pleaded guilty in October, accused of passing illicit stock tips from the White House lawn during a Congressional picnic. Collins, the first member of Congress to back Donald Trump for president, was charged in August 2018 with securities fraud, wire fraud and making false statements to FBI agents — part of an alleged scheme to share confidential information about an Australian biotech company whose board he sat on. Read more here.  This email was sent to kamal.sahim5.news@blogger.com by: POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA  Please click here and follow the steps to unsubscribe.  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Behind Rouhani’s Uranium Enrichment Claim (DeLozier | Policy Alert) Posted: 17 Jan 2020 02:27 PM PST BEHIND ROUHANI'S URANIUM ENRICHMENT CLAIM by Elana DeLozier Policy Alert His troubling numbers could be accurate given Iran's past JCPOA violations and large number of operational centrifuges. On January 16, in live remarks broadcast on Iranian state television, President Hassan Rouhani stated that his country was enriching more uranium today than before the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. If true, this represents an extraordinary ramp-up in its monthly enriched uranium production since the International Atomic Energy Agency’s last accounting visit on November 3. Such high production levels were the main impetus for brokering the nuclear agreement in the first place, since Iran’s breakout time—that is, how long it would need to produce enough enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon—had become frighteningly short as a result. A closer look at pre-JCPOA data can provide a baseline for Rouhani’s assertion. From May 2012 to May 2014, Iran was producing enriched uranium at an average rate of 232 kg per month (this figure applies to material enriched to less than 5%; for an explanation of enrichment percentages and their relation to potential weaponization, see The Washington Institute’s glossary of essential nuclear terminology). It used approximately 9,000 IR-1 (or first-generation) centrifuges at its main Natanz facility for this effort. When production began to ramp down at the end of 2015 in anticipation of the JCPOA being implemented, the rate fell to its lowest monthly level, around 156 kg (the JCPOA was agreed to in July 2015, but not implemented until January 2016). In the most recent IAEA report, based on the period August 19-November 3, 2019, Iran’s stockpile grew by approximately 52 kg per month, if one combines its 3.67% and 4.5% enriched uranium. To bring its stockpile up to pre-JCPOA levels by the time of Rouhani’s latest claim, Iran would have had to increase that monthly enrichment rate at least threefold since November (to 156 kg), if not more (e.g., to 232 kg, depending on one’s definition of “pre-JCPOA”). Rouhani’s comments may not be hyperbole. Given what is known about Iran’s centrifuges, reaching pre-JCPOA levels was always a plausible feat once it decided to start violating various JCPOA restrictions. Specifically, it could have achieved these levels by increasing its use of IR-1 centrifuges, and/or by running its advanced centrifuges, which are supposed to have significantly higher output than the IR-1. Iran announced that it would begin using advanced centrifuges several months ago, and the IAEA has confirmed that they are running and accumulating uranium. Since the advanced machines were not accumulating uranium pre-JCPOA, it is unclear how well they work, but if operating as expected they could explain the bulk of Rouhani’s claimed ramp-up. On January 5, Iranian officials alluded to increasing their use of IR-1 centrifuges as part of a “fifth step” away from their JCPOA commitments. Factoring in how many IR-1 machines Iran has replaced since the start of the JCPOA due to normal wear and tear, it may have up to 4,600 additional machines available for use. Combined with the 5,060 already in use, that would allow Iran to ramp back up to the 9,156 IR-1 centrifuges it was using prior to the JCPOA. And if advanced centrifuges are added to the mix, it could easily surpass its pre-JCPOA production of enriched uranium. The exact details behind Rouhani’s claim will become clear when the next IAEA report on Iran comes out in early February. It will be the first such report issued under the new IAEA chief, Rafael Grossi, and the first to reveal how efficient the advanced centrifuges are at enriching uranium. The next troubling step Iran could take would be to increase enrichment from 4.5% to 19.75%, which is technically quite close to weapons-grade uranium. If Tehran is able to grow its stockpile as quickly as Rouhani claims, and if it boosts enrichment to 19.75%, this would raise the same concerns that existed prior to the JCPOA about its potentially short breakout time. Elana DeLozier is a research fellow in The Washington Institute’s Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy. THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY 1111 19TH STREET NW, SUITE 500 WASHINGTON, DC 20036 202-452-0650 202-223-5364 (fax) www.washingtoninstitute.org Copyright 2020. All rights reserved. Follow us on Twitter. Follow us on Facebook.   | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Making the Most of the Berlin Conference on Libya (PolicyWatch 3243) Posted: 17 Jan 2020 02:05 PM PST MAKING THE MOST OF THE BERLIN CONFERENCE ON LIBYA by Ben Fishman and Charles Thepaut PolicyWatch 3243 If the latest conference is to succeed, the principal actors stoking the civil war must endorse a genuine ceasefire and a return to Libyan internal dialogue. On January 19, international leaders will convene in Berlin to discuss a way out of the nine-month civil war between the so-called “Libyan National Army” led by Gen. Khalifa Haftar and the internationally recognized Government of National Accord led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. The Germans led several months of preparatory efforts at the request of UN envoy Ghassan Salame, but had been reluctant to choose a specific date until they were assured that the event stood a reasonable chance of producing practical steps to improve the situation on the ground and jumpstart the UN’s stalled negotiation efforts between the LNA and GNA. Chancellor Angela Merkel finally took that step after several key developments unfolded earlier this month, including a January 8 ceasefire proposal by Russian president Vladimir Putin and Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Putin’s subsequent failed attempt to have each side sign a more permanent ceasefire agreement in Moscow on January 13 (the GNA signed but Haftar balked, though most of the fighting has paused for the moment). Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has been averse to engage on Libya during his tenure, but he is expected to attend the Berlin conference alongside National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien. Accordingly, the event gives the United States a chance to play a much-needed role on several fronts: namely, pressuring the foreign actors who have perpetuated the war and violated the arms embargo; working with Britain, France, Germany, Italy, and Russia to codify a ceasefire at the UN Security Council; and backing Salame’s efforts to reinvigorate the Libyan national dialogue, which Haftar preempted by attacking Tripoli last April despite European support to Salame. Since 2011, Libya has struggled to establish a legitimate transitional government despite three national elections and the creation of at least four legislative bodies. Challenges to the 2014 election results eventually led to rival governments in the east and west, and the division solidified when Haftar started the first civil war with support from his allies Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. That war halted in 2015, but several years’ worth of domestic and international efforts failed to bring Sarraj and Haftar to an enduring resolution. In February 2019, the two leaders met with Salame in the UAE but once again failed to resolve their differences. Two months later, Haftar launched his offensive against Tripoli, which has continued ever since. Quite simply, the general has felt no need to compromise on his core demands so long as his military position remains stronger than the GNA’s, his international backers continue their support, and Sarraj remains relatively weak domestically and internationally. RENEWED SENSE OF URGENCY Salame conceived the idea of a Berlin conference because Germany has not played an active role in Libya’s recent wars and might therefore be viewed as a more neutral peace broker. Supported by a more united European position, Merkel’s diplomatic efforts began prior to Russia and Turkey’s recent military moves—Putin deployed Wagner mercenaries on the frontlines to support Haftar in September, and Erdogan deployed troops to Libya earlier this month after signing a defense memorandum with the GNA in November. The goal of the Berlin conference is to produce a unified international position that can help the UN secretary-general and Salame achieve a political deal and ultimately reunite Libya. According to German authorities, the event will include senior officials from Algeria, Britain, China, Egypt, France, Italy, the Republic of the Congo, Russia, Turkey, the UAE, and the United States. The UN, European Union, African Union, and Arab League will also be represented. Leaders expected to attend include Putin and Erdogan, along with Algerian president Abdelmadjid Tebboune, British prime minister Boris Johnson, Egyptian president Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, French president Emmanuel Macron, and Italian prime minister Giuseppe Conte. The conference will aim to endorse a pre-negotiated text of more than fifty points addressing a host of issues: the creation of a military council from each Libyan side to negotiate security issues, the formation of a new political body representing all sides, and the creation of an economic team to deal with controversial issues such as distributing oil resources, unifying economic institutions, and reforming subsidies. Step one, however, will be cementing the fragile ceasefire and, potentially, designing a monitoring mechanism. It is difficult to imagine viable negotiations taking place over Libya’s political, security, and economic future when the two parties are still fighting. So far, the tentative ceasefire brokered by Putin and Erdogan has mostly held since it went into effect on January 12. Yet each side suspects the other is just exploiting the pause to reinforce its frontlines—in the LNA’s case by bringing more arms and equipment from the east; in the GNA’s case by receiving arms and personnel from Ankara, including pro-Turkey fighters formerly engaged in Syria. Firming up the composition and terms of a permanent ceasefire mechanism will be a key issue in Berlin and any follow-up meetings. EXPANDED U.S. ROLE Whatever President Trump’s intention was when he called Haftar last April, his outreach signaled support for the general’s offensive, despite the administration’s subsequent calls for de-escalation. Washington has also held important technical-level discussions on security and economic reform, but those efforts have limited value in the context of the current war. Accordingly, Pompeo and O’Brien should focus intently on achieving three main goals in the coming days and weeks:
The Berlin conference is a critical opportunity to at least pause Libya’s war. If Washington misses it, there may not be another one until hundreds more are killed and thousands more displaced. Ben Fishman is a senior fellow at The Washington Institute and former director for North Africa at the National Security Council. Charles Thepaut, a resident visiting fellow at the Institute, previously worked for European diplomatic institutions in Syria, Iraq, Belgium, France, Germany, and other countries. THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY 1111 19TH STREET NW, SUITE 500 WASHINGTON, DC 20036 202-452-0650 202-223-5364 (fax) www.washingtoninstitute.org Copyright 2020. All rights reserved. Follow us on Twitter. Follow us on Facebook.   | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cord-cutting millennials are just like their parents Posted: 17 Jan 2020 01:44 PM PST
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| Posted: 17 Jan 2020 01:36 PM PST
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| Meghan Markle spotted driving to Canadian airport to pick up friend amid royal exit Posted: 17 Jan 2020 01:17 PM PST
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| Europe Is Creating an Opportunity for Iran Talks (PolicyWatch 3242) Posted: 17 Jan 2020 12:58 PM PST EUROPE IS CREATING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR IRAN TALKS, AND WASHINGTON SHOULD TAKE IT by Elana DeLozier and Charles Thepaut PolicyWatch 3242 By triggering the nuclear deal's dispute resolution mechanism, Britain, France, and Germany are opening diplomatic space that could help the United States and Iran return to the negotiating table. In a press conference following the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, President Trump reaffirmed his administration’s “maximum pressure” policy against Iran and asked, once again, for European countries to leave the nuclear deal. Meanwhile, Tehran announced what it called a “fifth and final remedial step” away from its commitments under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. In response, the British, French, and German foreign ministers stated on January 14 that they would trigger the JCPOA’s dispute resolution mechanism (DRM). At the same time, however, the E3 clarified that they are not joining the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign, which has steadily intensified ever since the United States withdrew from the JCPOA and reimposed unilateral sanctions in 2018. Contrary to U.S. claims, the European decision will not immediately provoke “snapback” UN sanctions on Iran (though that scenario could unfold later if the E3 plan fails and Iran’s violations go before the UN Security Council). Instead, Europe is maintaining its evenhanded position somewhere between Washington and Tehran in order to preserve the possibility of new negotiations, on both the nuclear program and other regional issues. THE LONG MARCH TO THE DRM The E3 have sought to withhold the DRM option as their last resort since May 2019, when Iran began to withdraw from certain JCPOA commitments in three-month intervals. Tehran’s strategy was sparked by the Trump administration’s escalating pressure—that same month, the United States canceled a waiver that had allowed the Iranians to sell their enriched uranium, essentially forcing them to either stop enrichment altogether or exceed the JCPOA limits. They chose the latter path, and have taken other “remedial steps” since then: exceeding the stockpile limits on heavy water; enriching uranium to higher levels; disregarding restrictions on centrifuge R&D; resuming enrichment at the highly fortified Fordow facility; and increasing the number of operational centrifuges, including advanced models. The latest step, announced on January 5, suggests that Iran will no longer abide by any technical limits on its centrifuges. This would allow it to increase the amount of enriched uranium it produces each month, substantially lowering the amount of time it would need to “break out” to weapons-grade material if it chose to take that path. Indeed, on January 16, President Hassan Rouhani stated that his country was producing more enriched uranium today than before the JCPOA—a disturbing claim given how short its estimated breakout time was in 2015. The next report by the International Atomic Energy Agency, due in early February, will shed light on exactly how much Iran is ramping up its technical capacity. Fortunately, Tehran has not used the nuclear portfolio to punish the United States for Soleimani’s assassination. Although he was killed just two days before the January 5 centrifuge announcement, that “fifth remedial step” had been expected well before then. Tehran’s relative restraint is likely rooted in its eagerness to remain in the JCPOA, since it still receives important benefits from doing so—in particular, avoiding the reinstatement of certain EU and UN sanctions. In the longer term, the Iranians may aim to wait out Trump, perhaps hoping that a new president will replace him next year and reenter the JCPOA. In the meantime, they can start selling weapons again this October, when various UN restrictions on such activity expire. TRIGGERING THE DRM IS A NECESSARY RISK Over the past few months, the United States repeatedly asked European leaders to acknowledge Iran’s noncompliance with the JCPOA by engaging the DRM, but they were hesitant to do so until now. In their view, the JCPOA is the only viable framework to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, so they have given Tehran every chance to come back into full compliance. Triggering the DRM is not without risks, since failure could collapse the JCPOA altogether, spark new escalation in the region, and make future U.S. talks even less likely. Yet European officials seem to believe that taking this step now is crucial because competing U.S. and Iranian pressures have already put the nuclear deal in a perilous position. The DRM is also their best option for preserving the E3’s credibility and avoiding further military escalation. Accordingly, after Iran made its centrifuge announcement on January 5, the E3 reaffirmed their commitment to the JCPOA, restated their goal of preventing the country from acquiring nuclear weapons, and blamed Tehran for stoking regional instability. They then triggered the DRM, a flexible process that allows any JCPOA party to refer an issue to the Joint Commission for resolution if it believes another party is failing to meet its commitments. All of the parties—Britain, China, France, Germany, Iran, Russia, and the EU—now have approximately one month to decide how to deal with Tehran’s violations (or longer if they agree on an extension). This is an opportunity that Iran and the United States should seize if they want to avoid further escalation. European leaders are hoping that Tehran’s desire to remain in the JCPOA will force it to compromise during the DRM process. This could lay the foundation for new Iranian negotiations with Washington, initially based on salvaging the JCPOA framework, then broadening to encompass other issues. Yet this approach will only work if the Trump administration provides realistic options that Europe can present as grounds for getting everyone back to the table. RESUMING TALKS: WHY AND HOW? The United States and Europe agree that Iran’s activities in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen pose a threat to regional security and should be on the table, as should its ballistic missile program. French president Emmanuel Macron has taken a number of steps to resume talks based on those mutual interests, even convincing Trump and Rouhani to agree on a four-point plan at the UN General Assembly last September. Yet a string of escalatory incidents, including a militia riot at the U.S. embassy in Iraq, the killing of Soleimani, and Iran’s retaliatory missile attack, have made it difficult to convert those steps into a negotiation. President Trump has repeatedly indicated that he is in favor of making a deal with Iran, and the E3 are counting on him to act accordingly. Now that the DRM has been activated, Washington should use the resultant pressure on Iran to make additional proposals and open space for negotiations that go beyond the nuclear issue. Europe has always regarded the nuclear deal as the first indispensable pillar of a larger deal with Iran, and the DRM is an opportunity for the United States to build toward the latter instead of tearing down the former. For example, if the Trump administration offers limited new sanctions waivers during the DRM process, it would not only help European officials in bringing Iran back to the table, but also send a message that the goal of the maximum pressure campaign is new talks, not regime change—a crucial element of pre-negotiation confidence-building. Some perceive the DRM decision as an instance of Europe caving in, whether to Washington or Tehran. In terms of its actions over the past two years, however, Europe has stayed united and fairly consistent in mediating between the two sides, so it is now up to the U.S. and Iranian governments to meet the E3 halfway. So far, unfortunately, they have lashed out at Europe’s choice, with the Trump administration calling for Europe to reimpose sanctions instead of the DRM, and the Rouhani government threatening European soldiers abroad. European countries have long warned that U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA would weaken counterproliferation efforts, strengthen Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and fuel regional instability. In their view, those predictions have come true, so it is now time to get serious about negotiations and stop the uncontrolled game of countermeasures. Although the DRM is no magic pill, Iran and the Trump administration need to realize that there are few if any good options left for reaching a negotiated solution. Elana DeLozier is a research fellow in The Washington Institute’s Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy. Charles Thepaut, a resident visiting fellow at the Institute, previously worked for European diplomatic institutions in Syria, Iraq, Belgium, France, Germany, and other countries. THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY 1111 19TH STREET NW, SUITE 500 WASHINGTON, DC 20036 202-452-0650 202-223-5364 (fax) www.washingtoninstitute.org Copyright 2020. All rights reserved. Follow us on Twitter. Follow us on Facebook.   | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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